Social Evaluation Study for the Milne Bay Community-Based Coastal and Marine Conservation Program png/99/G41 Jeff Kinch April 2001 unops contract for Services Ref
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*The population growth rate between 1980 and 2000 is estimated as 3% per annum. The overall population numbers for the CBMMCAs as of the year 2000 are 958 in CBMMCA 1, 2539 in CBMMCA 2, and 1158 in CBMMCA 3. Seven islands have areas of less than 5 km². With such small land areas, the resulting population densities of the communities involved are very high. High population density is defined as a population density on land used for agriculture of more than 55 persons/km2 in 1980, which is equivalent to more than 100/km2 for the estimated 2000 population. At a national scale, for instance, >50 persons/km² is considered the highest of three classes (Hanson, Bourke et. al. 2000). The densities of four communities in the CBMMCAs are greater than 100 persons/km². These are Ware and Brooker (CBMMCA 3); and Kwaraiwa and Tubetube in the Engineers (CBMMCA 2). All of the remaining communities - with the exception of East Cape on the mainland (CBMMCA 1) - lie between 49-100 persons/km². It is important to note that such densities are not necessarily a feature of modern population growth. Tubetube, for instance, appears to have had a population of 400 in 1892 (MacIntyre 1983a), which would have given a density of 172 persons/km². The East Cape village is located on the mainland, and assuming land is equally distributed amongst East Cape and its neighbouring villages, it has the lowest density of all communities at around 25 persons per km². The two islands of the Obstruction Group, Iabam and Pahilele (CBMMCA 1) are very small, with a joint area of less than 1 km², while Nuakata Island is a modest 10 km². None of the Engineer Group of islands is larger than 4 km², and, with the exception of Tubetube and Skelton, which has a relatively modest population density of 79 and 87 persons/km2 respectively, the others have very high densities. The land areas of Ware and Brooker Islands are extremely restricted, both being under 2 km², with the consequence that population densities are extremely high at 395 and 369 person per km² respectively. This has major implications for agricultural self-sufficiency and influences the varying dependence on marine resources. This is of particular concerns to islands such as Ware and Brooker (CBMMCA 3). Table 19: CBMMCAs by Land and Reef Area and Person Per Km² (Source: Mitchell et al, 2001)
* As some land and reef areas claimed by Ware and Brooker are currently under dispute, island and reef areas have been measured from Liwaus Passage for both communities. Population Growth The annual population growth rate in Milne Bay Province over the past 20 years has been stable at around 2.5%. Population in the Zone 1 overall has grown more slowly and remained stable at 1.8% per annum over the past 20 years, equivalent to a population doubling time of around 38 years. The annual population growth rates within Zone 1 vary for different islands from 1.4% to 3.2%. Table 20: Population and Growth Rates
Table 21: CBMMCA Population, Households and Population Increase Between 1980 and 2000 (Source: HSM Associates, 2000 and the Provincial Data System)
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