Social Evaluation Study for the Milne Bay Community-Based Coastal and Marine Conservation Program png/99/G41 Jeff Kinch April 2001 unops contract for Services Ref
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*In 1979, however, MacIntyre (1983a) counted 142. The Iabam/Pahilele (CBMMCA 1) population dropped from 71 to 53 between 1980 and 1990, and continued to decline to 51 in 2000, a decrease of 28% over 20 years. This was the only fall recorded in all three CBMMCAs. Migration of people away from these two small islands to Nuakata and East Cape (within CBMMCA 1) seems the likely cause. For instance, the population increase on Nuakata between 1980 and 2000 was very high, at 88 percent. Population increase in the Engineer Group (CBMMCA 2) between 1980 and 2000 was steady at 46-54%, but that on Tubetube more than doubled between 1980 and 1990, presumably due to immigration. Population growth on Brooker and Ware Islands (CBMMCA 3) over the past 20 years has been very uneven, with that of Brooker increasing by a moderate 62%, while that of Ware more than doubling. The census figures for 1980-2000 show an increase of 113% for Ware. Brooker has the most detailed census records of all the CBMMCAs, as recorded by Kinch (1999). It has seen a dramatic rise in its population since World War II. In 1944 it had a population of 144 people. Over the next 55 years it increased 2.8 times (or grew 177%) . The population in 2000 stands at approximately 400 people, rising at a rate of approximately 2.5% annually. In 1999, 40% of the population on Brooker was under the age of 15 years, indicating rapid growth (but at a lesser rate than the Province as a whole). Table 22: Brooker Island (CBMMCA 3) Census Data: 1944-1999 (Source: Kinch, 1999)
Implications for the MBP Rapid population growth presents a possible threat to the MBP, because of the potential for the amount of capital available per worker to decline, rather than increase. Changed scales of development associated with the commercialisation of resources are also increasing the pressure. People who are disadvantaged by changing market trends and who live in a state of material poverty will definitely put additional pressures on these resources as they strive to maintain or improve their position (see Mitchell et al, 2001). The simplest case is a situation where the production of food is the main activity and the quantity of resources available to the group is fixed. Each worker added to the labour force reduces the average amount of resources per worker. Eventually the person/resource ratio will increase to a point where the total output from the resource ceases to rise and therefore the average output per worker will drop. Under these circumstances an area is deemed to be 'over-populated' (see Hayes and Lasia, 1999). In the early 1990s Ware people were conscious of, and voiced some concern about, the growing population. As described by Hayes (1993), concern focused on food security, the potential for land disputes, and the growing burden of agricultural work falling disproportionately on women. The population density of Ware in CBMMCA 3 has now surpassed the sustainable limit for a bush-fallow system of cultivation. There is evidence of soil erosion and depletion and older women are complaining of lower yields from more effort. Unless subsistence agriculture can be intensified while simultaneously soil fertility is maintained, out-migration will be the only option for Ware people in the future. From village surveys conducted by Harmony Ink, a NGO contracted by MML, throughout portions of CBMMCAs 2 and 3 people are/were already concerned and aware of land shortages and the disputes that will arise increasingly. Concern over population growth on West Panaeati is high with people considering migrating to smaller atoll islands like the Torlesse Island (see Seni, 1998). Already people from the south coast villages on Misima are claiming formally unihabited islands on the north barrier reef. Their justification being past migratory routes as all people within the Misiman District are are said to be descendent from Misima. This is causing some tension already. Recommendations: 8. Thoroughly analyse the Census 2000 to more accurately forecasts future population levels. Information is also needed on maximum sustainable threshold population for islands in the CBMMCAs. 9. Continue and support the Village Census Books and regularly monitor and analyse the data collected. The Provincial Data System is trying to re-establish this process as this information is useful to the LLG and District Planning processes. The MBP needs to support these efforts. 10. Conduct research on garden yields to more accurately understand the relationships between agricultural productivity and dependency on marine resources. Summary and Conclusion Population growth represents a possible threat to the MBP. The annual population growth rate in Milne Bay Province over the past 20 years has remained stable at around 2.5%. At present the problem of high or increasing population density is primarily a local one affecting particular small islands (particularly those in CBMMCA 3). Population in the Zone 1 overall has grown more slowly and remained stable at 1.8% per annum over the past 20 years, equivalent to a population doubling time of around 38 years. The annual population growth rates within CBMMCAs vary for different islands from 1.4% to 3.2%. An area whose population is growing at less than 2% per annum is better placed to absorb increasing numbers than a one whose population is above 2% and thus population growth for some communities bears watching (see World Bank, 1984). Currently non-arable land accounts for 69% of all land in Milne Bay, whilst the remaining 31% is divided into 22% low intensity use and 9% high intensity use (Mitchell et al, 2001). Around 70% of this arable land has a very low ratio of cropping period to fallow period (Hide et al, 1994). Again this is an issue affecting smaller islands of the CBMMCAs. Reduction of the fallow portion of the shifting cultivation cycle from seven to ten years down to five or even less has been noticed throughout Zone 1. For example, the population density of Ware in CBMMCA 3 has now passed the sustainable limit for a bush-fallow system of cultivation. There is evidence of soil erosion and depletion and older women are complaining of lower yields from more effort. For the MBP to have a greater likelihood of success, livelihood indicators may need to improve and if sustainable livelihoods are to be achieved, some changes in either agricultural and marine resource harvesting practices or population growth rates will be necessary (see Mitchell et al, 2001). Information is needed on maximum sustainable threshold population for islands in the CBMMCAs, and a possible formula developed to understand other smaller islands in the Province, PNG and the Pacific. The Provincial growth rate is reduced to some extent by continuous out-migration to other provinces. Rural to urban migration is not as prevalent in Milne Bay Province as elsewhere in PNG as cultural obligations in rural communities and previous economic opportunities provided some incentive for retention and relatively minor movement of people between rural and urban areas, with the possible exception of Ware. Hayes (1991) noticed that forms of long-distance rural-urban movement characterised by long-term residence, and urban-based employment were emerging amongst Ware people. Most migration in Zone 1 is rural to rural migration with people taking up residency on other island where there are trading partners, marriage connections or better services. An example of this last category is Iabam/Pahilele people moving to Nuakata for schooling and health facilities and the increase in population at Tubetube. Nevertheless, Alotau has grown rapidly, averaging 4% over the past 20 years. This is well below the PNG average of 15%. While quality of life does vary across Milne Bay Province, basic indicators at present suggest it remains feasible in all areas. Trends are good in terms of health and education factors for population increase to remain stable. At present, the baseline encourages a steady drop in rates of increase in the islands. Mitchell et al (2001) estimated that the actual annual cash requirement per person in rural Milne Bay to have a basic standard of living is K150 per person or K750-K900 per household. Most communities in the CBMMCAs do not achieve this, averaging around the K500 mark per household. Changed scales of development associated with the commercialisation of resources are also increasing the pressure. People who are disadvantaged by changing market trends and who live in a state of material poverty will definitely put additional pressures on these resources as they strive to maintain or improve their position Chapter 6 Services and Infrastructure Education and Delivery The literacy rate for Milne Bay Province is high by rural Papua New Guinea standards. This is due in part to the early contact with Europeans and Missionaries who established some of the earliest educational institutions in the country. In 1990 Milne Bay had a mean literacy rate (in any language) of 77% for the population over 10 years with males at 79.2% and females at 74.7% (National Statistic Office, 1994). Literacy strengthens communities and should be encouraged by the MBP as it has the potential of providing an important means to translate options for conservation, development and management, and can open up meaningful dialogue between communities, industry, government and CI. It also provides opportunities for improving economic welfare and addressing population health care issues. The high literacy rate also suggests that people in Milne Bay will be able to participate in uncomplicated project data collection and monitoring activities (see Kinch, 2001). Managing and protecting the marine environment and its resources will be more effective if there are environmentally aware and educated people in the community (see King and Lambeth, 2000). In 1990 to 1991, the National Department of Education (NDOE), with assistance from UNDP and UNESCO, conducted an Education Sector Review throughout PNG that confirmed very high rates of attrition at the primary school level ensuring that universal primary education would likely never be achieved. Also discovered were low transition rates at post grade 6 and grade 10 levels, a largely irrelevant curriculum, weak management and administration, declining resource allocations and a severe imbalance in the allocation of funding to higher education at the expense of lower level education (Division of Education, 2000). In 1992, of the total number of Grade 1 pupils in all Milne Bay schools, only 70% completed Grade 6 in 1997. The proportion of female pupils retained was significantly higher than that of male pupils. Statistics indicative of the national perspective suggest that a majority of these students would have dropped out between Grades 1 and 2 followed by dropouts between Grades 5 and 6. Features of the CBMMCAs that lead to such high attrition rates are their widely spread populations and diverse geographical environment that limit access to schools for pupils. Most people can afford to pay for their children to attend the local primary schools, though secondary education is usually beyond the financial reach of most families, and a large proportion of children receive no formal education beyond sixth grade. Table 23: Cost of Education (Source: National Department of Education)
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