Lantana (Lantana camara L.)

2.2 Lantana spread and potential distribution

Lantana was first recorded in Australia in 1841 at the Adelaide Botanic Gardens. By the 1860s there are records of it having naturalised in Brisbane and Sydney (Swarbrick et al. 1998) and in the Big Scrub area in New South Wales (Byron Shire Council, pers. comm.). In 1897, the Queensland Colonial Botanist, FM Bailey, reported that lantana had become ‘a most troublesome weed’ that had spread to form ‘impenetrable thickets on the banks of streams, deserted farms and the edges of scrubs’ around Brisbane. He went on to say that it was ‘equally abundant about Port Jackson [in Sydney]’ and that ‘its abundance of showy flowers all the year round is a poor compensation for the good land it encroaches upon’ (Bailey 1897).

These words are as relevant today as they were in the late 1800s, and lantana has now invaded more than five million hectares of eastern Australia (DERM 2010). It is widely distributed throughout coastal and subcoastal areas from Mount Dromedery in southern New South Wales to Cape Melville in north Queensland, and on many of the Torres Strait Islands. In recent times, the weed has also been found in association with riparian systems in central–west Queensland—outside what, until recently, was believed to be the plant’s potential distribution. Isolated infestations also occur (or have occurred) in Cape York; around Katherine and Darwin in the Northern Territory; and in the vicinity of Broome and Kununurra in the Kimberley, as well as Geraldton, Perth and Albany in Western Australia.

Lantana is present in all states and territories as a garden ornamental, but has not become naturalised to any great extent in Victoria, South Australia or Tasmania.

In the south-west regions of Western Australia, the Mediterranean climate and the prevalence of poor or sandy soils are considered the major constraints on spread. However, even in these regions, lantana has demonstrated a capacity to invade sensitive riparian systems and other environments where soil moisture is available year round. By contrast, the Kimberley in the north of the state has a tropical environment. Current distributions are limited; however, this region is likely to be much more prone to invasion than other areas of the state. If lantana becomes established along watercourses and around watering points, it may have serious economic implications for the Kimberley pastoral industry.

Lantana was previously believed to have reached its potential range but recent detections and climatic modelling provide evidence to the contrary. In recent years, the potential distribution of lantana has been mapped using a range of modelling systems, and most show a similar potential pattern of invasion (Figure 2). Figure 2a was produced using the MaxEnt model and represents modelled climate suitability (NSW DECC & Macquarie University 2011). The model was designed using worldwide distribution data for L. camara and bioclimate variables including annual mean temperature, maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, isothermality, precipitation in the driest and wettest month, and precipitation seasonality. These variables capture information about extremes of temperature and precipitation, as well as seasonal patterns.

The model confirms that excellent habitat conditions occur along the east coast of Australia and across Cape York, with suitable areas in the northern Top End of the Northern Territory; the Kimberley and southern coasts of Western Australia; and some of the coastal regions of Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania.

Currently, potential distribution modelling does not include management regimes such as use of fire. It is possible that the extreme dry season, and/or the annual burning regime, may have prevented the more extensive spread of lantana across Cape York and into the open savanna woodlands of the Top End. However, in eastern Indonesia where lantana is a serious invader, there are areas as dry or drier than the Top End that also experience annual fires. This suggests that lantana may be a ‘sleeper’ weed rather than simply unsuited to this area.

a Potential distribution in 2010

c Potential distribution in 2050

b Potential distribution in 2020



d Potential distribution in 2080

Predicted probability of presence


Source: NSW DECCW & Macquarie University (2011).

Figure 2 Potential distribution of Lantana camara under current and predicted climate change conditions

Another consideration is that the ecological limits of lantana are not clearly defined and it may be more appropriate to model distribution based on soil temperature and soil moisture. For example, when small volumes of irrigation (simulating flooding) were applied to the original CLIMEX¹ model, the distribution boundaries were pushed westward into the floodplains and drainage channels of western Queensland (ARMCANZ et al. 2001). The implications are that given adequate rainfall or flood events, lantana could spread significantly further west of its current east coast range. This supposition has been supported by recent discoveries of lantana on catchments west of Emerald and near Barcaldine in central–west Queensland.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that lantana significantly increased its westward range in south-east Queensland as a response to a series of wet years in the early 1970s. It is also thought that a series of very wet years through the late 1990s in the Northern Territory led to a rapid expansion of lantana (within its range) along the coastal dune systems and into the vine thickets around suburban Darwin. Increased lantana spread has also been observed in rainforest environments where the resilience of natural ecosystems has been degraded by extended drought periods (Sutherst 1995).

If, as this suggests, extreme climatic events are a key driver of distribution, then protocols must be put in place to respond to range expansion caused by the increase in these extreme events predicted under climate change conditions.

In addition, lantana in Australia is rarely found growing beyond 1000 m above sea level, because of the decrease in sustained warm temperatures above this elevation. Consequently, it is also predicted that increases in average temperature will allow lantana to invade higher altitude areas and further south (McFadyen 2007; Sharma et al. 2005).

On a broader scale, the MaxEnt climate change modelling suggests that L. camara will experience a strong decline in overall climate suitability between now and 2080 (Figure 2b–2c) (ARMCANZ et al. 2001). However, this decrease is based on distribution potential, not current distribution, so there is still a large potential for range expansion. The most significant point to note from this research is the shift in spatial distribution of climate suitability, which indicates coastal regions throughout Victoria, Tasmania, South Australia and southern Western Australia will be prone to invasion in future years.