Gef medium-Size Project (msp)

A. Alternative GEF Scenario

97. 
    Based on the above situation analysis, the proposed project strategy is to take an “adaptive capacity enhancement approach”, as outlined in UNDP’s Adaptation Policy Framework (APF). Under this approach, the project will assess the mountain forest ecosystems in the Syunik region with respect to their current adaptive capacity, and propose ways in which adaptive capacity can be increased so that it is better able to cope with climate change, including climate variability. The focus will be on increasing the capacity of the south-east mountain forest ecosystems to be resilient to climate change. This will be achieved by introducing flexible policies, spatial planning and management practices to enhance the inherent adaptability of the species and habitats and reduce trends in human-induced pressures that increase vulnerability to climate variability. This will particularly include (i) developing technical capacities for systematic observation, data collection and scenario planning;, (ii) implementing ecological restoration to bring back environmental resilient conditions to forest species populations, stands and landscapes, testing and streamlining other adaptation measures to improve pest and fire management; and (iii) supporting knowledge transfer and experience sharing aimed at full integration of internationally proven adaptation practices in mountain forest management at the national and local levels.
    
98. 
    While the project will be of broader relevance to all mountainous forest areas in Armenia, the immediate focus of pilot adaptation measures will be in the Syunik region of south-east Armenia. The project will undertake activities in 3 of the 4 forestries in Syunik²⁰, each managed by an independent forest enterprise: Syunik (Goris sub-region)²¹, Kapan and Meghri forestries. Selected target areas for the pilot projects are: Shurnukh forest area of the Syunik (Goris) forest enterprise, Davit Bek forest area of the Kapan forest enterprise, and Shvanidzor forest area of the Meghri forest enterprise. See Annex 4 for a description of the most vulnerable forest areas in the Syunik region, and details on the areas selected for pilot projects.
    
99. 
    The long-term development goal of this medium size project is to assist Armenia in beginning a process by which strategies to moderate, cope with, and take advantage of the consequences of climate change are enhanced, developed, and implemented. The specific objective of the project is to enhance adaptive capacities of the vulnerable mountain forest ecosystems to climate change in the Syunik region.
    
100. 
     This will be done by identifying, evaluating, and integrating climate change response measures into forest conservation and development programmes in the Syunik region and piloting some critical adaptation activities with high demonstration and replication value. The following outcomes, each of which will draw on APF guidance, will contribute towards the achievement of the project objective. Indicators and assumptions for each outcome are presented in the log frame.
     

Outcome 2: Forest and protected area management in the Syunik region integrates pilot adaptation measures to enhance adaptive capacity of mountain forest ecosystems.

101. 
     Through this outcome the project will ensure that the current process governing planning and management of forests in the Syunik region integrates climate change and its impacts as a criterion in decision making, and that institutional roles and responsibilities for an early warning and response system to climate change are clarified and formalized.
     

102. 
     The current planning process consists of Forest Management Plans (led by the local Forest Enterprises and Hayantar SNCO of the MOA) covering forest lands under the jurisdiction of Forest Enterprises, and Protected Area Management Plans (led by the MONP) covering existing protected areas and those that are in the process of being established. Based on the pilot adaptation measures under the project, climate change concerns will be included under the corresponding sections of forest and protected area planning documents. Specific management measures for inclusion would cover areas such as control and prevention measures for maintaining forest health, specific approaches to be taken into consideration during reforestation and forest rehabilitation activities. Resources will be allocated to undertaking this through a process of broad-based stakeholder consultation.
     
103. 
     Additionally, staff involved in the development and implementation of forest and protected area management plans will be trained in how to reflect climate risks in management plans. Training will be based on international best-practice in the area.
     

104. 
     There are a number of institutions that need to be involved in an early warning and response system such as the local forestry, scientific research institutions, emergency management agency, fire department, protected area management units. The early warning system needs to cover monitoring, prevention, early warning, and responses for pest outbreaks and forest fires. Currently, there isn’t a coordinated response plan among these actors and they operate on very ad-hoc manner with no consideration of longer term climate change impacts on effectiveness and efficiency of their current practices. Under this output, roles and responsibilities will be clearly defined, based on comparative advantages of the different actors, and integrated into regular monitoring regime of forest management authorities. The development of the response plan will be undertaken in consultation with stakeholders.
     

105. 
     Through this outcome, the project will undertake on-the-ground adaptation response measures in the target areas that were identified during the PPG (see Annex 4 for information on target sites). Response measures will relate to mitigating the effects of the three main climate-induced threats to forest ecosystems – pest outbreaks, forest fires and increased fragmentation. By piloting these measures, the health and resilience of the forest ecosystems to climate change and variability will be enhanced.
     

106. 
     A key bottleneck has been the lack of knowledge and proper understanding of climate change impact on the forests. Currently, forest management decisions do not employ scenario planning as part of the decision-making and planning exercise. The systematic collection of climate-related data will help to identify how communities of forest species will be affected by climate change i.e., what physical and biological changes could take place as a result of changes in temperature, precipitation and aggravation of situation with extreme climate events. This observation and forecasting system will provide the foundation for planning appropriate response measures and integrating them into ongoing forest management efforts. The project will introduce scenario planning as part of routine forest and protected area management planning.
     

107. 
     In response to pest outbreaks in 1999-2001, GoRA began to allocate funds for aerial pest control using pesticides, which helped to reduce pest infestation. However, the negative ecological impacts of pesticide use pose a threat to the forest biodiversity, and this is particularly undesirable taking into consideration the rich biodiversity of the region. Besides, the current efforts are not adequate to effectively address the increase in pest infestations that are being observed during the last decade with temperature shifts. The current budget allocations are limited and can not mitigate the impact accordingly. The project strategy is designed inter alia to facilitate environmentally sound long-term pest control and is planned in the following directions: (i) improve complex monitoring of the pest invasion, prevent pest outbreaks and mitigate impacts, (ii) promote environmentally sound aerial pest control using biological treatment in the Meghri sub-region of Syunik region (the most prone area to pest outbreaks), and (iii) capacity building for adequate monitoring and response. The response measures will be undertaken based on the best available local and international practices: early diagnostics, cooperation with scientific community, transfer of knowledge, guidelines for preventive measure (e.g. removal of dead and affected trees). The environmentally safe biological treatment measures (for example microbiological substances: Bitoxi Bacillin, Bedro Bacillin) will be tested in the target area in order to prevent pest outbreaks and to avoid adverse ecological effects of chemical pesticides that are currently in use. The mentioned microbiological substances have target effect on leaf-eating insects with no damage to the forest biodiversity. The results of the pest biological treatment will be monitored, evaluated and recommendations will be drafted and presented to the forest authorities for further application in other forest areas. The foresters (Armforest and SPANs) will be trained in early identification and localization of pest invasion and effective pest control tools.
     

108. 
     As temperature increases, forest fires may become the primary agent of vegetation change in the vulnerable Syunik region. At the same time, due to the human-induced pressures leading to changing vegetation and habitats it is quite difficult to understand and/or characterize natural forest fire regimes. Climate change will further impact wild fire dynamics. Therefore, the current fire control and management that is mainly in the nature of reactive measures will not suffice in the face of anticipated climate change. The impacts that will lead to further aridification of climate in the Syunik region will lead to more conducive conditions for fires of greater magnitude. The project will introduce measures to minimize fire risks and help local counterparts to consider climate scenarios for fire management planning. Emphasis will be on fire prevention, as well as control and management as part of the forest adaptation strategy through the following measures: (i) awareness raising and partnership building with local communities, NGOs, tourist organizations to mitigate human-induced fire events, (ii) minimization of activities that tend to lead to fire occurrence (agricultural waste burning practices, spontaneous ignition of dry grass on glades and along highways in proximity to forests, open fire in forest recreational areas during dry seasons), (iii) assistance in establishment of early warning system as part of forest fire administration including training for representatives of different agencies: foresters, republican, regional and local administrations, emergency and fire departments, protected area management units and communities, (iv) assistance in improving forest management in conjunction to climate change, (v) enhancement of forest fire early response capacities of forest enterprises through provision of special tools and techniques (equipment for fire early response), (vi) improvement of coordination and setting clear-cut responsibilities of various agencies for pro-active fire prevention and fire management.
     

109. 
     In areas that have been degraded due to anthropogenic factors and where fragmentation has further increased due to climate-related factors, the project will undertake ecological restoration by reforestation. This will cover areas where the condition of the soil is such that forest health can be improved through planting and assisted natural regeneration. Areas that were degraded due to forest fires during the heat wave years will be reforested with endemic species of juniper (natural regeneration of this species is highly complicated). It will also cover areas affected by pest outbreaks, and those areas that were initially affected by pest outbreaks and are now more vulnerable to forest fires. However, the reforestation efforts undertaken by the project will be implemented in a way that leads to improved resilience of the ecosystem. This will be done by achieving greater spatial heterogeneity of large ensemble of local endemic tree species, preferably with varied bio-climatic optimum conditions. Found in close spatial distribution, this concentrated heterogeneity will help reduce considerably dispersal distances requirements and stabilize the target ecosystem. This effort of in-situ conservation of priority species and habitats will enhance inherent adaptive capacity of the targeted forests. Experts consider that mixed forest stands are more “natural” and resilient to changing climate conditions or to likely consequences of climate change.
     
110. 
     Foresters and local community members will participate in restoration activities, which will also be organized as a learning process. Therefore, foresters will benefit from on-the-site / on-the-job training in forest management practices that leads to reduction of forest fragmentation and improves resilience of the ecosystem to climate-driven disturbances.
     

111. 
     This is the first time that Armenia will be attempting to include climate impacts as an integral part of management of forest ecosystems in a vulnerable area. This outcome will, therefore, focus on enabling adaptive management and learning, and facilitating replication.
     

112. 
     The experience with integrating adaptation response measures into planning documents and implementing pilot adaptation measures will not be limited to the south-eastern mountainous forests of the Syunik region. The project will aim to leverage this experience to mobilize change in other forest enterprises in the central and northern regions of Armenia. Staff from at least 6 other Forest Enterprises will be trained in mainstreaming adaptation to climate change and will be involved in demonstration of pilot adaptation measures. The aim is to capacitate them to lead a similar process in their respective regions reaching out to various stakeholders. This approach will be detailed during the MSP implementation, as part of the replication plan.
     

113. 
     In order to facilitate dissemination and uptake of project experiences, resources will be dedicated to analyzing project benefits for forestries and local communities and for developing a manual for use by foresters, communities, and other stakeholders. The manual will analyze the project results and elaborate a detailed case study to showcase adaptation options for forest ecosystems. This will include ecological restoration strategies that improve landscape connectivity and heterogeneous mix of tree stands and tree diversity, forest fire management and environmentally friendly pest control methods that will remain effective under the changing climatic conditions. In addition to the case study, the manual will synthesize international good practice, draw on existing guidance and customize for a local use suited to the specific conditions of forest management in Armenia.
     

114. 
     This will involve establishing the project management team which will coordinate the work of the inter-disciplinary adaptation team. Regular monitoring and reporting of impact indicators specified in the logframe will be undertaken. This will include any additional physical, hydrometeorological, and biological monitoring, over and above what is currently being undertaken by the local administrations of the target sites. A determination of additional monitoring needs will be made by the project team in consultation with national and international experts in the inception phase of the project.
     
115. 
     In order to maximize the project’s catalytic role, an effective communication strategy will be essential. Therefore, a communication strategy will be developed and implemented, including the hosting of seminars and exchange-visits to share findings with key “change agents” that can push the frontier in terms of integrating climate impacts into policy, programme and project development and implementation in other regions of Armenia. This could also include sharing of experience with other countries in Europe. Lessons learned will be documented to expand the knowledge base in terms of adaptation in the country. The experience will also be beneficial to other countries in the region and beyond, through UNDP/ GEF’s Adaptation Learning Mechanism.
     

116. 
     The project will develop adaptive capacities for south-eastern mountain forest ecosystems in Armenia in line with UNFCCC objectives of promoting adaptation to climate change. Inasmuch as the project focuses on areas of mountain forest ecosystems (as outlined in Annex 1), the project will generate benefits in the biodiversity focal area by ensuring that the forestry sector mainstreams conservation of biodiversity into its activities by specifically undertaking measures that mitigate climate-related threats to biodiversity. This will help reduce the vulnerability of mountain forest ecosystems that harbor endangered and vulnerable flora and fauna to expected climate change and reduce the risks of global biodiversity loss. By developing adaptive capacities of local communities, local self-governments, conservation managers and foresters of the target forest region, the global environmental benefits being delivered by multiple efforts described above will be made resilient to climate change.
     
117. 
     National benefits will also be realized because Armenian institutions and nationals will acquire the skills to address adaptation which can be applied in other parts of the country. To the extent that the project will develop critical capacities to begin a longer-term process of integrating climate concerns into the implementation of programs which in turn enhance ecosystem integrity and resilience to climate change, this will benefit locals that rely on the natural resources base as a source of livelihood.
     
118. 
     To summarize, the main adaptation benefits of the project are that it will be able to provide concrete inputs into conservation and development planning in the Syunik region to ensure that climate change concerns are taken into account. Given that the Syunik region is rich in biodiversity that is considered by national experts to be under threat from climate variability and expected climate change (along with other anthropogenic factors), the project will be able to build and enhance the inherent adaptive capacity of the ecological system to climate change, once the proposed measures are adopted and implemented. The project will help mitigate environmental (including socio-economic) costs of disturbance processes exacerbated by climate change, and maintain societal values of the current ecological and related economic systems (i.e. in-situ conservation of the priority species and habitats, and improved forest management and forestry practice). This is expected to be the first show case in the country where climate concerns are taken into account and lessons learnt will be replicated to other regions of the country that share similarity to the selected system.
     

119. 
     The incremental cost rationale underlying this project is that under a business-as-usual scenario adaptation to climate change will not be taken into account into forest management policies, programmes and activities and this, in turn, will undermine efforts to conserve unique mountain forest ecosystems. This is principally due to the fact that national capacity to understand and predict the impacts of climate change on the globally significant biodiversity of the mountainous forest ecosystems, and to identify and implement appropriate adaptation response measures is weak. To date, none of the government and donor-funded activities in the area takes explicit account of adaptation to climate change. However, the baseline offers several opportunities to integrate adaptation in forest planning, as the forest sector, with international assistance and increased national budget allocations, has recently embarked on elaboration of forest planning documents for all forest enterprises over a 10 year period. The planning documents lay the legislative and budgetary foundation for forest management. This UNDP-GEF Adaptation MSP would be timely in ensuring that climate risks are integrated in this process. By removing existing barriers, the project will play a catalytic role in realizing the normative situation where the forestry and biodiversity sectors in the Syunik region are managed in a way that forest ecosystems are able to respond to climate change to the limits of their capabilities (a) by reducing or removing existing pressures, and (b) by adopting policies and practices which directly assist species in forest ecosystems in adjusting to climate change.
     
120. 
     The baseline is estimated at US$ 9,096,107. This includes measures aimed at strengthening conservation of forest ecosystems against anthropogenic threats, but does not address the additional threats posed by climate change, including variability. The GEF Alternative, which includes targeted measures to improve the adaptive capacity of forest ecosystems of the Syunik region to climate change, is estimated at US$ 11,896,107 (see IC matrix in Annex 5 of the Project Document). The incremental cost is therefore US$ 2,800,000 (including project management). Of this amount, US$ 1,900,000 is being mobilized from GoRA (Hayantar SNCO). The GEF is being requested to contribute US$ 900,000. By covering these incremental costs of removing barriers to adaptation, the GEF would play a catalytic role in advancing adaptation to climate change not only in forest management policies and practices in Armenia, but potentially will be disseminated as good practice example also in other countries of South Eastern Europe and beyond prone to similar impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems.
     

121. 
     The continuation of the adaptation strategy developed by the project, upon project completion, depends on the extent and depth of stakeholder engagement in the project, the capacities that are developed, and the mainstreaming of adaptation in relevant policy-making processes. The project will therefore emphasize active engagement and capacity building among a wide range of stakeholders from the national to local level (as identified in the stakeholder analysis section). The emphasis will be on engendering institutional capacity for adaptation, awareness raising, and providing opportunity for participation. By integrating adaptation into existing regional plans, policies and programmes with high relevance to mountain forest ecosystem stability in the Syunik region, the financial cost of implementing measures will also be mainstreamed in the long-term.
     

122. 
     The geographical focus of the project is on the mountain forest ecosystems of the Syunik region, which has been prioritized under the FNC and SNC. The experience of mainstreaming adaptation to climate change impacts in mountain forest ecosystems of the Syunik region will necessarily generate useful lessons for other vulnerable mountain forest ecosystems in Armenia. Under Outcome 3 resources will be specifically set-aside for sharing experience with key stakeholders in the other regions to lay the foundation for replication of the project’s experience.
     

123. 
     In line with the GEF Council’s guidance on assessing cost-effectiveness of projects (Cost Effectiveness Analysis in GEF Projects, GEF/C.25/11, April 29, 2005), the project development team has taken a qualitative approach to identifying the cheapest way, among competing alternatives, of achieving the project objective. A rigorous and quantitative application of cost-effectiveness analysis (where an indicator that best describes the outcome of the intended activities is identified, and the cost of achieving a unit of that indicator for the different competing alternatives is computed) was not feasible.
     
124. 
     At the level of the project strategy, the chosen strategy is considered the most cost-effective for several reasons. First, the geographical area where limited adaptation resources are to be used to pilot the mainstreaming of adaptation response measures has been prioritized as vulnerable to climate change and as an area where the potential ecological losses to forest ecosystems could be significant. By investing project resources in enhancing adaptive capacity of this area, the potential pay-off in terms of ecological benefits is higher than it would have been in another region. Second, by taking into account climate risks the project would ensure that the threat of other investments in conservation of forest ecosystems being undermined by climate induced hazards is reduced. Third, in line with the precautionary principle, by integrating adaptation response measures at this early stage, the project is expected to minimize degradation of ecosystem values and services, which once lost could be prohibitively costly to restore.
     
125. 
     At the level of individual adaptation response measures, the project will scrutinize proposed measures with cost-benefit analysis to identify low regret and no regret adaptation actions, thus ensuring cost effectiveness of investments.
     

126. 
     During the project preparation phase, a detailed stakeholder analysis was conducted. The tables below list all main stakeholders of the adaptation process in the Syunik region. During project development, stakeholders have been involved in discussing the project idea and providing background information (see Part II of Annex 7 for a record of consultation during project development). During project implementation, APF guidance (especially that provided in Technical Paper 2) will be relied on to ensure effective stakeholder engagement.