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Table 1 Water balance in Syunik

River Basin

Area

(km2)



River Flow

(million m3/year)



Atmospheric Precipitation

(million m3/year)



Evaporation

(million m3/year)



Vorotan

2476

725

1828

811

Voghji

1341

502

1097

448

Meghri

664

166

470

241

Table 2 Main characteristics of river networks in Syunik

Length

Number of Rivers and Length in km

River Basin

Vorotan

Voghji and Tsav

Meghri and Small Tributaries to Araks

< 10 km (smallest ones)

Quantity

Length


1100

1690


1152

1737


655

761


10-25 km

Quantity

Length


34

477


20

304


16

201


25-50 km

Quantity

Length


3

88


2

59


1

36


50-100 km

Quantity

Length


-

-


1

56


-

-


More than 100 km


Quantity

Length


1

119


-

-


-

-


Entire River Network

Quantity

Length


1138

2374


1175

2156


672

998


Area of the River Basins, km2

2476

1341

664

Coefficient of River Network Density, km/km2

0,96

1,61

1,50


Table 3 Underground water resources in Syunik

River basin

Total

Including

Spring Flow

Drainage Flow

Outflow

Vorotan

17.24

5.44

8.01

3.79

Voghji

5.00

2.52

2.18

0.30

Meghri

1.63

0.61

0.80

0.22

Total

23.87

8.57

10.99

4.31




  1. Assessment of the vulnerability of water resources to climate change is based on changes in river flows, which, in turn, are contingent upon atmospheric precipitation, evaporation, air temperature and changes in relative humidity. The decline of water resources in Armenia during the last decades is partially due to decrease of precipitation and increase of ground level temperature. The situation is not different in the Syunik region. Interviews with local stakeholders and representatives of the Southern Basin Management Authority that is in charge of management of water resources in Syunik region show a significant decrease of water resources. This decline of water resources in the Syunik region is likely to be another factor contributing to degradation of forest ecosystems due to reduction of essential functions that water resources provide. In order to assess the quantity of water decline, an analysis of atmospheric precipitation, air temperature and hydrological data was conducted (a map of hydrometeorological observation points in Syunik region is in Map 5, Annex 4). However, since monitoring of underground water resources has not been conducted in the southern basin for the last decades, this makes it difficult to assess changes in underground water resources.

  2. As for surface water resource in the vicinity of pilot areas, data limitations do not allow for an in-depth analysis and conclusions. However, existing data from hydrological observation points show that water resources have declined in Meghri and Vorotan River Basins. In Vorotan River Basin, where hydrological observations have been carried out since 1962, water resources have declined by 3.44%, which might be due to reduction of precipitation by 0.60%. For Voghji River Basin, it is difficult to draw conclusions since anthropogenic impacts are observed here and the natural flow has undergone significant changes. For the Meghri River Basin, annual average multi-year flow for 1949-2006 has been 91.2 million m3, whereas the average annual flow for the period 1991-2006 is 80.9 million m3. Thus, the average annual river flow has declined by 11.3% in the period 1991-2006. This calculation does not include extraction rates for human use for drinking, irrigation and industrial purposes, since the extraction of water resources from the river (composing about 2.8% of the total flow) did not change significantly during the last decades.

Climate change context

  1. Armenia’s climate is dry owing to the high elevation of the terrain above sea level and its relief. The atmospheric circulation and its most important constituents, including baric fields, atmospheric fronts and air masses significantly influence the formation of weather and climate conditions. The country’s weather is conditioned by anticyclone (46%) and cyclone fields (33%), the local air circulation (14%) and by the impact of southern hot dry tropical air (7%). The complicated topography with significant altitude changes (lowest point 379 m; highest point 4,090 m.) significantly affects atmospheric circulation. Only in the upper layers of atmospheric mass does transfer from west to east occur, which is characteristic of sub-tropical zones. Atmospheric occurrences are mainly contingent upon penetration of prevailing western and eastern air masses, with frequent infringement of arctic cold air masses from the north and hot air masses towards the Meridian from the south. In some parts of Armenia, particularly in Ararat Valley, clearly expressed mountain-valley circulation is observed, which intensifies in summer months. Wind velocity in summer might reach 20m/sec and more.

  2. The absolute maximum temperature in the country recorded in Artashat (Ararat region) and Meghri (Syunik region) is 430C. In June-August average air temperature varies from 100C in high mountainous regions to +24 to +260C in lowlands. Winters are quite cold with the coldest period in the second half of January. In January the average air temperature depending on the altitude and peculiarity of the relief fluctuates from –130C to +10C.Very low January temperatures are recorded in the north-west regions of the country, where the absolute minimum temperature recorded in Paghakn is -420C, whereas in the north and south-eastern regions the winter is rather mild and the January temperature varies between 0.60C (Ijevan) and 1.60C (Meghri).

  3. The annual total precipitation in Armenia is 592 mm. The maximum is observed during the period April-May. The driest regions are Ararat valley (Ararat region) and Meghri region (Syunik region), where the annual precipitation is 200-250mm. In Ararat valley, during the entire summer, total precipitation does not exceed 32-36mm. The maximum precipitation is observed in high mountainous areas – more than 1000 mm annually. In high mountainous regions, the snow cover is formed in the months of September-October and melts in July. In separate years the height of snow cover exceeds 2m. In warmer regions the snow cover is formed in December and melts in March. Sustainable snow cover is formed only in 15-20% of winters. In mountain passes, 31 days per year with stormy winds are observed. Hail is recorded more frequently in May-June. The regions of Lori-Pambak (Vanadzor, Tashir) are subject to most of the hail storms (6-8 days).

  4. Consultations with national climate and biodiversity experts during the PPG has provided a more detailed picture of current climate variability in the Syunik region and its impact on biodiversity, as well as the projected impact of future climate change. The following paragraphs focus on climate variability in the target Syunik region of Armenia (further details on climate variability in Armenia more generally are provided in Annex 3).

Current climate variability in the Syunik region

  1. The climate of the Syunik region is remarkably diverse due to its complex topography. The high altitude above sea level, orientation of the mountain ranges, and occluded borders of the river valleys and basins has a notably large impact on the local climate. The majority of the mountain slopes has an eastern orientation, due to which air masses that blow from the east move up the mountain slopes and cool rapidly, causing a gradual increase in the relative humidity. As a result, precipitation is scarce on the western side of the mountains and in the Sisian basin. The eastern slopes of the Bargushat Mountains are rich with forests as they receive a relatively large portion of humidity, whereas forests are rare on the western and northern slopes. The vertical landscape zones on the eastward and westward slopes are largely divergent. The conditions in the Meghri sub-region are similar. In this region the humid air masses are blocked by the Meghri Mountain Range. Only when the air masses moving from the east are extremely strong and humid, Sisian and Meghri receive precipitation triggered by external factors. A similar phenomenon is observed when humid western air masses penetrate the region. The Syunik region is blocked by the Zangezur Mountain Range in the west. While passing over the mountain ranges, the air masses undergo a significant transformation and become drier.

  2. Air temperature in the region fluctuates within a large range due to differences of altitudes. The average annual temperature is 13.80C, which is the highest throughout the country. The average January temperature in Kapan and Meghri sub-regions is respectively 00C and 0.90C. Meghri sub-region has the warmest winters in Armenia. The absolute minimum temperature recorded in Meghri sub-region is -220C. The town of Meghri has favorable daytime temperature in winter, which sometimes reaches 200C. The average summer temperature here in some years has been 270C, with the highest absolute temperature reaching 430C. Summers are also mild at medium elevations and in the lowlands of the Syunik region. The average July temperature is 25.80C. Summer temperatures in Goris and Kapan sub-regions are 19.10C and 230C respectively. The climate of Kapan is temperate-warm, temperate-humid and is characterized with warm winters and warm summers. The annual average air temperature is 12.1C. The average monthly temperatures throughout the year are positive. Monthly mean temperature in January is 0.9C, and in July is 23.5C. However, due to the penetration of cold air masses, the temperature in winter may fall up to -22C. The highest summer temperature in Kapan reaches 39-40C.

  3. The spatial distribution of annual precipitation in the Syunik region is quite irregular. The amount of precipitation increases with the elevation. This increase is particularly noticeable in the basin of the Meghri River. In this area the precipitation increases by 33-44 mm at every 100 meters of upward elevation. But there are areas such as the Voghji basin, where the precipitation decreases with the elevation rise. The same pattern is observed in the valley of the Geghi River (a branch of the Voghji River), where annual precipitation is less in areas with lower elevation. The situation is virtually the same in the basin of the Vorotan River. Nevertheless, there is more precipitation in Goris (714 mm) than in Sisian sub-region (384 mm), although Sisian is 200m higher than Goris.

Table 4 Precipitation and Temperature in the Syunik region

Station

Altitude (meters)

Annual precipitation (mm)

Average annual air temperature

Sisian

1615

384

7.2

Goris

1367

714

9.1

Kapan

704

552

12.1

Meghri

661

271

14.3

Average




481

10.7

  1. Analysis of observed data for the period 1935-2007 shows that in general the annual precipitation has increased with respect to the 1961-1990 average by 8% in Syunik (Figure 5). However, significant reduction of precipitation during 1978-2007 is revealed. Analysis of observed data for the period 1978-2007 compared with the 1961-1990 mean shows that total precipitation over the Syunik region and for the target areas (Goris, Kapan, Meghri) has decreased by 9% (Figure 6). Empirical-statistical analysis shows that a reduction of precipitation is very likely during the next 2-3 decades.

Figure 5 The anomalies of annual precipitation and average air temperature (1935-2007) in the Syunik region (the 1961-1990 baseline period)

Syunik Marz: Annual Precipitation anomalies , 5 year running averages and linear trends

Syunik Marz: Average Air Temperature anomalies , 5 year running averages and linear trends







Source: Armenian State Hydrometeorology and Monitoring Service

Figure 6 The anomalies of annual precipitation and average air temperature (1978-2007) in the Syunik region and in individual observatories (Goris, Kapan, Meghri) (1961-1990 baseline period)

Syunik Marz: Annual Precipitation anomalies , 5 year running averages and linear trends

Syunik Marz: Average Air Temperature anomalies , 5 year running averages and linear trends





Goris sub-region: Annual Precipitation Anomalies

Goris sub-region: Average Air Temperature Anomalies






Kapan sub-region: Annual Precipitation Anomalies

Kapan sub-region: Average Air Temperature Anomalies






Meghri sub-region: Annual Precipitation Anomalies

Meghri sub-region: Average Air Temperature Anomalies





Source: Armenian State Hydrometeorology and Monitoring Service


  1. The average air temperature during the period of 1935-2007 has increased by 0.7C (Figure 5). However, the air temperature anomalies are not the same in different seasons and regions. Thus, the maximum increase in the air temperature has been reported during the summer season, whereas changes in winter months are rather insignificant.

  2. The table below demonstrates the deviations in the average monthly air temperature and total precipitation for 1998-2007 from the 1961-1990 mean for the meteorological stations located at the closest distance from the selected target areas. As can be seen from the table, during the last decade the monthly precipitation has reduced in comparison with the 1961-1990 mean in contrast to general increasing trend over the 1935-2007. A significant reduction of precipitation has been reported during summer months, particularly in Meghri where rainfall has reduced in June by 60%. The average monthly air temperature for the Syunik region during the mentioned period has increased. Further study has been carried out analyzing climate change detection indices. The results showed that during the whole period of observations (1936-2007) the number of consecutive dry days (CDD - days with daily precipitation <1mm) has increased in Kapan by 5.4 days, Meghri - 18, Goris – 5.3. Number of summer days (SU25 – days with daily maximum >25oC) has significantly increased during the same period (in Meghri by 10, Kapan and Goris by 21 days). These results indicate that drought conditions have intensified in the target region of the project.

Table 7 Deviations of monthly mean air temperature and total precipitation from 1961-1990 average, Syunik region

Sub-region

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

annual

Kapan: Precipitation

98-07

18,6

19,8

64,3

78,9

110,5

49,6

29,6

26,9

27,1

42,4

40,9

26,0

534,6

61-90

27,1

31,6

59,3

79,0

94,9

67,4

30,1

29,3

41,2

55,4

39,8

26,9

582,0

ΔR%

-31,2

-37,3

8,6

-0,1

16,4

-26,4

-1,6

-8,4

-34,2

-23,4

2,7

-3,5

-8,1

Kapan: Temperature

98-07

1,7

3,8

6,9

14,0

16,0

21,2

23,8

24,1

19,4

14,0

7,5

2,8

13,0

61-90

0,6

1,9

5,8

11,8

16,3

20,3

23,6

22,7

18,7

12,6

7,6

2,9

12,1

ΔT

1,2

1,9

1,1

2,2

-0,3

0,9

0,2

1,4

0,7

1,4

-0,1

-0,1

0,9

Goris: Precipitation

 

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

annual

98-07

24,9

37,0

71,3

109,0

130,6

66,2

42,2

40,6

53,9

66,4

54,5

26,5

723,2

61-90

35

42

75

95

112

99

51

53

61

74

47

34

778

ΔR%

-28,7

-11,8

-4,9

14,8

16,6

-33,1

-17,3

-23,5

-11,6

-10,3

16,0

-22,1

-7,0

Goris: Temperature

98-07

0,4

1,7

4,6

8,8

12,6

17,1

19,5

20,3

15,7

11,4

6,0

2,0

10,0

61-90

-0,9

-0,4

2,7

8,3

12,5

16,0

18,8

17,8

14,3

9,2

5,6

1,8

8,8

ΔT

1,3

2,1

1,9

0,5

0,1

1,1

0,7

2,5

1,4

2,2

0,4

0,2

1,2

Meghri: Precipitation

 

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

annual

98-07

8,4

14,8

31,4

49,0

55,6

12,4

8,3

5,0

7,6

19,5

23,3

12,8

248,0

61-90

16

16

35

42

49

31

10

10

13

30

23

15

290

ΔR%

-47,3

-7,8

-10,4

16,7

13,4

-60,1

-16,8

-50,3

-41,7

-35,0

1,2

-14,9

-14,5

Meghri: Temperature

98-07

2,2

5,7

9,9

14,0

18,9

24,5

27,2

27,6

22,6

16,7

10,0

4,2

15,3

61-90

1,6

3,3

8,2

14,1

18,8

23,1

26,3

25,4

21,2

14,7

9,5

4,7

14,2

ΔT

0,6

2,4

1,7

-0,1

0,1

1,4

0,9

2,2

1,4

2,0

0,5

-0,5

1,1


Impact of climate variability on forests and biodiversity in the Syunik region

  1. The forest vulnerability assessment in Armenia, conducted as part of the FNC and SNC, in the light of forecasted global climate change scenarios, examines the composition of tree species, their natural regeneration, change in the carbon absorption rate, forest fire risk, pest prevalence and development, change in the pest harmfulness, as well as threats to the forest biodiversity. The lower bound of the south-eastern forest area of the country stretches through altitudes of 600 m; and the upper bound reaches as high as 2,600 m. The forests located in the lower-bound area are particularly vulnerable to anticipated climate change. Over the last 30-40 years the lower-boundary of oak and oak- hornbeam forests has moved upwards by 200 m at a minimum. Those forest areas were mainly replaced with arid open forest with predominance of Quercus araxina and Paliurus spina-christi. Initially, the replacement was caused by intensive economic activity (mainly grazing). However, rehabilitation of forest ecosystems has not taken place even after discontinuation of economic activities, which indicates change of the forest growth conditions towards arid conditions.

  2. As a rule, the rise in temperature and change in precipitation significantly affect the ability of forests to regenerate through tree seeds. Although the negative humidity balance creates unfavorable conditions for seed restoration in lower-bound forest areas, in upper-bound areas it contributes to the improvement of the temperature regime, ensuring acceptable forest fertility, and regeneration through the seed base. Consequently, it brings about a gradual elevation of the upper-bound forest area12. The vulnerability of endemic species and those included in the Red Book found in the Syunik region is more detectible in the lower-bound forest areas, where they are prevalent. Apart from the expected gradual forest recession, the area will be penetrated by semi-desert and arid open forest plant species (Bothrichloa ischaemum, Artemisia fragrans, Stipa capillata, Rhamnus pallasii, Kochia prostrata, Quercus araxina, Pistacia mutica, Paliurus spina-christi, etc.). In the forests located at altitudes of 1,700 and higher, there will not be tangible changes in the forest ecosystems (except for the degraded forest ecosystems found at these altitudes) owing to the high adaptability potential of these forests. Under the 250-300 m upward movement, forest conditions would remain at the middle mountain zone where endemic and rare species will easily find habitats. In areas higher than the current upper-bound, conditions for forest would be favorable but establishment of forest ecosystem would take significantly longer. At the lower-bound, the change of climatic conditions leads to total degradation of forest ecosystems.

  3. Pest infestation already affects an area of 20,000 hectares in the Syunik region and it is expected that in the south-eastern forests pestholes of leaf-eating insects will significantly grow due to change of climate conditions if no actions are undertaken. Among the 15,000 species of insects prevalent in Armenia, about 1,300 are described by scientists as tree-shrub pests. Particularly harmful are the leaf-eating insects. The class of leaf-eating insects is extremely diverse and includes thousands of species harmful to trees and shrubs to some extent or the other. These species include thousands of butterfly, beetle and phylloxera varieties. However, there are a few species among them, which can spread substantially and cause dying of extensive forests areas of thousands of hectares. The number of such harmful species is relatively small and limited to a few dozens. The particularly prevalent leaf-eating insects in the south-eastern forests of Armenia include Ocneria dispar L., Euproctis chrysorrhoea L., Malacosoma neustria L.

  4. During the years when they are substantially prevalent, the leaf-eating pests significantly harm the forests by destroying its leaf mass. The natural regeneration of the trees with destroyed leaf areas is slow, which also affects the buildup of the wood mass. Failing pest control measures, trees that have been continually stripped of their leaf area, die out. Other trees become significantly weaker, are subjected to attacks of secondary (wood) pests, and become prone to the spreading of disease pathogens. In the last decade, the spread of pestholes of leaf-eating insects has grown and the outbreaks coincided with the hot years of 1999, 2000, 2001. Quantitative increase per unit area has also been detected. During the last decade, leaf-eating pests have rapidly spread through the forests of Syunik. Approximately 2,000 ha of forest area have partially dried out. It has been observed that the annual natural growth rate of trees deprived of their leaves has fallen by 80%. In the Meghri sub-region forest areas that had been affected by pest infestation were ultimately also prone to higher fire risk.

  5. Over the last few years, the occurrence of forest fires in the region has also increased significantly. Pests and fires continue to contribute to the process of dying out of forests. Based on an analysis of the occurrence of forest fires over 2001-2006 (table below), this effect is particularly distinct in the south-eastern forest areas. According to the data, from 2001 to 2006, 6 out of 24 forest fire reports for Armenia came from the Syunik region. 91% of forest land destroyed in the fire is found in the Syunik region. The remaining 9% was in the forest rich central and north-eastern regions (80% of total forest area).
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