Table 8 Forest fire incidence in Armenia (2001-06)
Year
|
Names of regions (marzes) and sub-regions *
|
Number of forest fires
|
Total area burned (ha)
|
Area burned (ha) including
|
Forest-covered
|
Not forest-covered
|
2001
|
Syunik marz
|
|
|
|
|
|
Meghri
|
1
|
20
|
20
|
-
|
|
Other marzes
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2004
|
Syunik marz
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Other marzes
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yeghegis
|
1
|
1.5
|
-
|
1.5
|
|
Ijevan
|
1
|
12
|
1.5
|
10.5
|
2005
|
Syunik marz
|
|
|
|
|
|
Goris
|
1
|
10
|
5
|
5
|
|
Other marzes
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gugark
|
6
|
14.3
|
-
|
14.3
|
|
Stepanavan
|
2
|
20.1
|
20.1
|
-
|
|
Yeghegis
|
1
|
1.0
|
-
|
1.0
|
|
Aragatsotn
|
1
|
10.0
|
-
|
10.0
|
2006
|
Syunik marz
|
|
|
|
|
|
Kapan
|
1
|
120,0
|
90,0
|
30,0
|
|
Goris
|
1
|
10,3
|
7,3
|
3,0
|
|
Meghri
|
2
|
193,0
|
192,0
|
1,0
|
|
Other marzes
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jermuk
|
1
|
0,06
|
-
|
0,06
|
|
Tumanyan
|
1
|
3,0
|
3,0
|
-
|
|
Yerevan
|
3
|
5,6
|
5,3
|
0,3
|
|
Gugark
|
1
|
1,6
|
1,6
|
-
|
2001-2006
|
Total in Syunik marz
|
6
|
353,3
|
314,3
|
39
|
|
Total in other marzes
|
18
|
69,16
|
31,5
|
37,66
|
|
Total in Armenia
|
24
|
422.46
|
345.8
|
76.66
|
-
An assessment of the impact of climate variability on biodiversity is currently under implementation, with an emphasis on the main ecosystems and some rare and endemic plant and animal species13. According to findings thus far, the following main impacts have been identified:
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Uncommonly hot weather and frequent droughts in the last decade (1998-2008) have led to the drastic deterioration of living conditions for the majority of mesophilous plant species that are reflected in a decrease of their areas in the Syunik region, provoked mass pest reproduction/ outbreaks (especially phyllophagous pests) that resulted in shrinking/ shriveling up of forest massifs over considerable areas, led to decrease of the territories with permanent water and marsh ecosystems, and provoked an increase in the number of forest fires and enlargement of areas affected by fires. Forest bedding exhaustion has led to a deterioration of soil invertebrates’ living conditions and, as a result, reduction in the quantitative and qualitative indicators of meso-fauna, changes in the composition of the soil animals associations, and decrease of the most hygrophilous species’ share in the total number of species, particularly, beetles.
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The Syunik region in general is characterized by high frequency of extreme climatic events, mainly heavy rainfalls. As a result, this region is ranked the first in Armenia for landslide areas and high risk of mudflows. Further, as mentioned earlier, the incidence of extreme events has increased over the last 20 years. These climatic events impact natural ecosystems significantly by leading to undesired changes in growth and to destruction of many plant and animal species’ habitats.
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In parallel to human activity that transforms natural ecosystems into agricultural lands and erects many other barriers on migration roads of many animal species, climate variability leads to pronounced fragmentation of many animal and plant species’ habitats that threatens their existence as such.
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It can thus be concluded that climate variability has had an unfavorable impact on the biodiversity of the Syunik region ranging from decrease in natural areas and quantity of populations of many rare species, to penetration of alien xerophilous animal and plant species into the natural ecosystems that may demonstrate invasive features.
Projected climate change in the Syunik region
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The assessment of projected climate change in Armenia is based on the analysis of outputs of a regional PRECIS Model, developed at the Hadley Center, UK with the baseline period of 1961-1990. According to the research findings, until the end of the present century the temperature will significantly rise throughout the entire territory of Armenia. The largest increase is expected during the summer season. Patterns of temperature change in different parts of Armenia will be different. In particular, warming will be much stronger in the western and central parts of the country and, especially, in the Ararat Valley during all the seasons.
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In the southern part of Armenia – in the Syunik region – the temperature increase will be moderate, fluctuating in the range of 1C to 3C under B2 and A2 emission scenarios (Figure 9). The seasonal distribution of the temperature increase will differ from region to region. The largest increase of around 5C will be expected during the summer season in the regions of our interest. The temperature increase during the winter and autumn seasons will be 1C to 2C, whereas little change is predicted during the spring season (figures below).
Figure 9 Predicted temperature changes in the Syunik region under A2 and B2 emission scenarios
Figure 10 Seasonal and annual temperature changes in the Syunik region until 2100 compared with 1961-1990 mean (simulated by the P RECIS Model under A2 emission scenario)
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Precipitation projections for Syunik region did not correspond to an overall national trend. Moreover, the model validation revealed that the precipitation field is not reproduced well and has a large bias and odd patterns. Particularly in the region of our interest, precipitation pattern, according to the model, is overestimated during most of the year. This could be explained by the weakness of the model in reproducing precipitation. Empirical-statistical analysis has been carried out to correct precipitation projections. Results show a decrease of precipitation during the next two decades, which does not agree with model results. Having this in mind, it can be concluded that the reduction of precipitation started at the end of last century will still continue during the first quarter of the current century14.
Impact of expected climate change on mountain forest ecosystems in the Syunik region
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The FNC showed that natural ecosystems of the country would be very vulnerable to changes in climate expected at that time. According to the scenarios of climate change, the following impacts were projected: a shift of the conditions peculiar to zonal ecosystems for 150-200 m up by mountain profile, changes in the structure and composition of the ecosystems, decrease or increase of their territories and their redistribution in the country. Under the SNC (under implementation), the vulnerability of ecosystems and of certain plant and animal species is now being re-estimated in light of new scenarios of climate change. According to these scenarios, living conditions for Armenian natural ecosystems will be changed to a greater extent than what was expected under the FNC. It has been shown that if the new scenarios become reality, unfavorable habitat conditions will develop for the majority of rare plant and animal species of Armenia. This is the reason why restoration of previously destroyed ecosystems and conservation of existing natural ecosystems is one of the most important measures for ensuring adaptation of biodiversity to expected climate change.
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The rise in temperature in the range of 1C to 3C by 2100 under B2 and A2 emission scenarios will most likely lead to considerable worsening of living conditions along the lower border of Armenia’s forest belt due to the climate change, especially in the southern part of Armenia where the Syunik region is located. It is expected that forests in the lower-bound area will gradually recede and the forest belts will move 250-300 m upward. Most likely, as a result of this impact combined with intensive economic activity, replacement of vegetation will take place as follows. Along the lower border of the forests of the Syunik region within a 200-300 m wide belt (by relative altitude) forests will be at best replaced by arid open forests and otherwise by semi-desert vegetation. Changes in dominants will take place in many areas, for example in the Meghri sub-region forests with Georgian oak (Quercus iberica) will most probably be replaced by open forests with Araxian oak (Quercus araxina) or even by semi-desert vegetation with fragrant sage-brush (Artemisia fragrans). Decrease in precipitation will cause drying up of forest bedding leading to deterioration of living condition for numerous invertebrates including many rare and endemic species. Presumed changes in flora composition will lead to correlated changes in the populations of the phytophagous animals (mainly invertebrates) connected with the respective plant species. By 2100, forest loss will total about 5,600 ha in the Syunik region, or around 8% of the south-eastern forest area.
-
Increase in average temperatures in the region and decrease in precipitation (in some sub-regions) will develop favorable conditions for invasion of species adapted to arid conditions from surrounding territories of Iran and Nakhichevan to the territory of the Syunik region. These species, many of which may demonstrate invasive features, will penetrate to the natural ecosystems and stimulate cardinal changes in them, threatening existence of species with narrow ecological amplitude.
-
An increase in the number of extreme climatic events (storm, rainfalls) will lead to strengthening of erosive processes, increase in areas prone to landslides, mudflows and floods. This, in turn, will also raise threats to the biodiversity of the Syunik region.
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The prevalence of pest holes is also expected to increase. Taking into account the biological characteristics of leaf-eating pests and, particularly, the interrelation between the prevalence area and harmfulness with temperature conditions, volume of precipitation and humidity, it is expected that the areas of prevalence of these pests will grow to reach 50,000 ha and more by 2100 according to assessments15. If no measures of aerial pest control are taken, the loss in the annual wood growth will significantly increase and total around 54,100 cubic meters. This implies that the potential carbon accumulation will fall by about 18,935 tons and the absorption of the CO2 gas will drop by around 70,000 tons (IPCC estimates). In order to prevent the negative influence of the harmful insects, it is necessary to take aerial pest control measures which are relatively safe to the environment.
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Based on the data on forest fires over 2001-2006, it is expected that projected climate change will significantly increase the incidence and negative impact of forest fires. It is reasonable to expect that the frequency and force of fires will likewise increase. In particular, forests found in the south-eastern region will be particularly prone to fire hazards.
Legislation and policy context
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The Constitution of the Republic of Armenia states that “…the state shall ensure the protection and reproduction of the environment and the reasonable utilization of natural resources…” (Article 10) and that one of the basic tasks of the state is “to pursue the environmental security policy for present and future generations” (Article 48). The Constitution also requires that “everyone shall have the right to live in an environment favorable to his/ her health and well-being and shall be obliged to protect and improve it in person or jointly with others” (Article 33.2). Moreover, the Constitution mentions that “the public officials shall be held responsible for hiding information on environmental issues and denying access to it” (Article 33.2).
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Legislation regulating the environmental sector in Armenia originated in 1991. Over the past years, 27 codes, laws and numerous normative acts ensuring the execution of the latter have been adopted. Environmental policies and legislation have been amended in parallel with the development of national economy and taking into consideration commitments under international treaties that have been ratified by Armenia. In particular, since 2000, several codes and laws (water, forest, land, mining, protected areas, environmental economics) have been adopted in lieu of the ones adopted in the 1990s.
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The first National Environmental Action Program, produced in 1997-98 with the assistance of the World Bank, identified and evaluated Armenia’s main environmental problems and proposed complementary projects and activities. The second National Environmental Action Program has been recently developed with the assistance of UNDP and is currently in the process of adoption. It highlights sustainable use and protection of forest ecosystems in the interest of biodiversity conservation, and also underlines the importance of corresponding measures that would support forest adaptation to climate change impacts.
-
As a response to the dramatic impact of the energy crisis of the 1990s on Armenia’s forest ecosystems (massive tree cutting combined with illegal logging), the government undertook the following important policy and legislative initiatives to reinvigorate forest management and improve ecosystem integrity of Armenia’s unique forests.
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Armenia’s forest sector policy documents have been developed and adopted in recent years including the National Forest Policy and Strategy, National Forest Program, and Action Plan for Mitigating Actions to Help Address Problems Associated with Illegal Logging:
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The National Forest Policy and Strategy Paper of the Republic of Armenia was developed in 2003-2004 and was approved by the Government of the Republic of Armenia in 2004 along with the Action Plan for Mitigating Actions to Help Address Problems Associated with Illegal Logging (RA Government Protocol Decision #38, dated September 30, 2004). The key concept underlying the National Forest Policy and Strategy Paper is that “forests are a national wealth and must serve the present and the future generations.” The main objective of the abovementioned paper is “to ensure the restoration of the degraded forest ecosystems, their sustainable use and further development of the useful properties of the forests.” This objective is comparable with the requirement for the promotion of the carbon dioxide sinks and removals set out in the Climate Change Framework Convention.
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In 2005 the Government of the Republic of Armenia also developed and approved the National Forest Program of Republic of Armenia (RA Government Decision #1232-N, dated July 21, 2005). It should be noted that the National Forest Program to some extent addresses issues pertinent to climate change. The Section on Issues Related to the Forest Sector of the mentioned Program discusses the importance of the forests and the main challenges they face from the climate change perspective, including: (i) the possible vulnerability of the forest ecosystems and change in their adaptation, as well as lack of measures aimed at preventing the mentioned processes; (ii) loss of the general forest biodiversity and resources; and (iii) insufficient involvement of the forest sector in global undertakings aimed at the mitigation of the climate change effects
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In 2005, the National Assembly also passed the new Forest Code of the Republic of Armenia (replacing the previous one from 1994). According to the new Code, forests, irrespective of their ownership, are designated for use for the following purposes: protective purpose, special use, industrial purpose. According to the new Forest Code, the 200 m wide zone of the lower and upper forest areas, as well as forests growing in the semi-desert, prairie and forest-steppe zones are also included in the schedule of forests designated for protection (varieties allowed for logging from these forests are limited). This fact is very important when viewed from the perspective of the mitigation of forest vulnerability to climate change.
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GoRA has developed and adopted a number of legislative acts stemming from the RA Forest Code, including Procedure on Establishing the Procedure for Restorative Wood Harvesting in the Forests Designated for Industrial Use and on Amending the Decision #49 of the RA Government, dated January 23, 2001 (Decision #1412-N of the RA Government dated 7 September, 2006), Procedure for Carrying out Treatment and Sanitary Loggings (Decision #897-N of the RA Government, dated 22 June, 2006), Procedure for Assigning a Management License for the State Forests to the Community Organizations without Running a Tender (Decision #583-N of the RA Government, dated 4 May, 2006), Procedure of Exploitation and Preservation of the Forests Designated for Industrial Use (RA Government Decision #1545-N, dated 29 November, 2007), Procedure of Exploitation and Preservation of the Forests Designated for Protection (RA Government decision #1316-N, dated 8 November, 2007); Procedure of Leasing State Forests and Forestlands (RA Government decision #806-N, dated 24 May, 2007), Procedure for Carrying out Operations in the State Forests which are Unrelated to the Forest Management and Forest Use (RA Government decision #1045-N, dated 30 August, 2007), Procedure for Maintaining the State Forest Cadastre and for the State Registration of the Forests (RA Government Decision #133-N, dated 7 February, 2008). Notwithstanding the abovementioned positive shifts, there are still many challenges on the way of developing and implementing adaptability improvement measures, which will reduce vulnerability of the forest ecosystems to climate change.
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Pursuant to the provisions of the new Forest Code, management plans have been developed for 7 forestries and 3 specially protected forest areas (with a total area of 188,827 hectares), an interagency task force and Forest Monitoring Centre were established to monitor illicit logging, Forest Recovery and Development Fund was established back in 2004. The development of community forest management plans is underway, pilot projects are designed to inform future community forest management scope and models. This process should be carried out with application of innovative cooperation mechanisms involving local administrations, the private sector and NGOs. The government is committed to encouraging community and private forest management, and pest management projects. The government is also exploring the development of an afforestation project in Lori marz aimed at using Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol.
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Further, the National Security Strategy of the Republic of Armenia (2007) recognizes the importance of increasing the efficient use and protection of forest resources as well as to introduce sound environmental practices to restore and preserve forests.
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The Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) between the European Union (EU) and Armenia is effective since 2000. Since 2006 Armenia is involved in the process of the EU New Neighborhood Policy and the Government adopted the National Program for the implementation of the PCA. The adoption of the National Program obliges the Government, among other things, to carry out the harmonization of environmental legislation with EU directives, which must be resolved by the joint efforts of certain institutions and agencies.
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Decision #1840-N of 2004 of the Government of the Republic of Armenia, which adopted measures to fulfill obligations of the Republic of Armenia under a number of environmental conventions, including ones under the UNFCCC, states the need to assess vulnerability and develop measures on adaptation to climate change impacts. Decision #880-N of 2005, which adopted a plan of measures for implementation of cross-cutting issues under the three UN conventions (FCCC, CBD, CCD), envisaged development of a system of sustainable management of forest ecosystems, including in particular (1) determining optimal forest coverage of Armenia, (2) developing an inventory of forest biodiversity and wood resources, (3) identifying carbon sequestration funding mechanisms for reforestation and afforestation activities, and (4) developing forest plantations.
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Other relevant environmental policy documents include the Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan, National Action Plan to Combat Desertification, State Strategy and National Action Plan on Development of the Specially Protected Areas of Nature, Integrated Water Resources Management Programme, and the State Water Policy and Programme.
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Unlike the availability of national development and environmental policy documents, the Government has just begun preparation of development policies for regions, and, consequently, the Syunik marz does not have one so far. Marzes are territorial administration authorities and are in between the Republican government and localities in the country’s governance structure. Their role is important in terms of coordination of activities. Since communities are the immediate users of forest resources, the role of local self-government authorities is significant in forest protection. In that context the local self-government bodies need capacity development for fully understanding the ecosystem services provided by the forests as prerequisites for sustainable livelihood in mountainous regions. That can ensure efficient cooperation with forest authorities and environmental protection agencies aimed at protection of forest ecosystems and successful implementation of adaptation measures.
Project Baseline
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In the business-as-usual scenario, without a GEF-supported intervention, degradation of forest ecosystems16 in the south-eastern region, which has already claimed 2,400 hectares of forest land, is likely to be magnified. The main anthropogenic and climate-related threats are discussed below.
Anthropogenic threats to biodiversity
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Anthropogenic factors that negatively affect forest ecosystems in the Syunik region include grazing, illegal logging, human-generated fires, illegal harvest of fruit (berries) and seeds, atmospheric contamination with different compounds, exploitation of mining deposits, and construction works. These anthropogenic factors have a serious negative impact on forest integrity and, in certain cases, even lead to the destruction of significant forest areas. Relatively smaller anthropogenic threats arise from activities such as illegal, small scale logging of individual trees, and grazing in traditionally used pastures. In general, however, access of communities to piped gas and rising living standards has had a positive impact on forest ecosystems as evident from the decreasing number of reports of illegal logging during recent years.
-
In the Meghri sub-region of the Syunik region, the main anthropogenic threat to forest ecosystems comes from overgrazing of pastures in close proximity to the villages, mining and enlargement of the network of roads. In Kapan sub-region, the primary threat to all natural ecosystems, including juniper open forests, is development of the mineral resource industry (enlargement of old and building new mines, open pits, preprocessors and respective infrastructure). Pastures and illegal/ irregular use of forest resources impose a lesser threat. In the Goris sub-region, the most threatening anthropogenic factor is grazing in forest areas that drastically reduce the possibility for natural forest renewal. In addition, the illegal use of forest resources also has negative impacts on forest health.
-
The change in forest integrity coupled with microclimatic conditions contribute to a worsening of growth conditions, weakening of the resistance of the forest stand to pest and disease invasions, and slowing of the natural regeneration abilities. In general terms, the forest becomes even more prone to adverse impacts of unfavorable climate change. Anthropogenic threats exacerbate the impact of climatic variability and change. Further, anthropogenic factors (included, but not limited to, grazing in summer time, hay-mowing and illegal logging) may affect the expected positive shifts in the upper boundary forests and stop the upward shift of the forests to sub-alpine and alpine zones. Thus, it may be inferred that both anthropogenic and climatic conditions will significantly contribute to the worsening of the forest health.
Climate related threats to biodiversity
-
A discussion of current climate variability in the target area and its impact on biodiversity, as well as the projected impact of future climate change is presented above under the Climate Change Context section.
Baseline programming
-
In the baseline scenario, the Government of RA has and will continue to undertake several initiatives to promote sustainable development, poverty alleviation, protection of the region’s forest ecosystems through protected areas and sustainable forest management. These measures will help reduce human induced threats to forest biodiversity. The following discussion summarizes this baseline, in the scope relevant to the context of this UNDP-GEF Adaptation MSP that proposes to mainstream adaptation to climate change into the baseline of mountain forest ecosystem protection.
Sustainable development related interventions
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Sustainable Development of Mountain Regions of the Caucasus: Local Agenda 21. Within the framework of a mountain partnership, the Alpine states are supporting mountainous communities in the Caucasus. In collaboration with the Principality of Liechtenstein and the German Federal Environment Ministry, REC Caucasus and REC Russia are developing a long-term action plan for the sustainable development of the Caucasus region on a transboundary basis for the states of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Russia. In Armenia, the communities of Yelpin (Vayots Dzor Marz) and Shvanidzor (Meghri sub-region, Syunik Marz) have been selected. The main objectives of the small projects in Shvanidzor community are: promotion of cultivation of wheat and other cereals which are not dependent on irrigation; assistance in cultivation of currently inaccessible fertile agricultural lands; ensuring preservation of community fruits, vegetables and other agricultural products in a specially constructed refrigerator; increasing flexibility of community marketing strategies and competitiveness on local markets; increase mechanization of community agriculture; ensuring equal access to potable water for the village districts; ensuring flow of potable water to the community, contributing to the solution of complex social, health, environmental problems; improvement of youth education standards, cultural life and flow of information in the community; building capacities for networking, provision of means of communication to the local-self governance and other stakeholders; diversification of community income by tourism development; establishment of self-sustaining business in order to diversify community income sources. This programme has been underway since 2003 and will continue through 2008. The second phase of the programme, which is under development, envisages selection of two more villages in order to replicate the positive experience and increase regional cooperation with the long term objective of developing a Local Agenda 21 for the whole Syunik region. The first phase budget for small projects in Shvanidzor (Meghri sub-region, Syunik region) is approximately USD 193,85717; financing for the second phase is still to be decided.
-
This programme that focuses on sustainable development of communities lays a good foundation for reducing human induced threats to forest ecosystems by diversifying incomes and reducing direct dependence on forest resources. It has also increased awareness and participation of communities in management of natural resources. However, in the context of climate change and increased risks of forest fires and pests, communities should be more involved in preventive actions. Lessons from the UNDP-GEF Adaptation MSP will therefore be very useful in integrating climate change concerns into this ongoing process of developing a Local Agenda 21 for the Syunik region.
Protected areas and sustainable management of forest ecosystems
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Biodiversity Protection and Community Development: Implementing Ecoregional Conservation Plan Targets in Southern Armenia. The Norwegian Government and WWF Armenia are assisting in: (i) administration of Khosrov State Reserve (Ararat region) in development of a visitors program according to international criteria, in order to attract local and international tourists, generate additional income, and create more space for involvement of local communities; (ii) strengthening Shikahogh State Reserve (Syunik region) in order to effectively protect biodiversity, manage protected area in a sustainable manner, and integrate concerns of the local population and public; and (iii) awareness raising on biodiversity issues and community development by target SPANs. This initiative began in 2007 and will continue through 2009. Of the total budget of approximately USD 1.1 million, resources allocated for Shikahogh State Reserve (Syunik region) are approximately USD 270,000.
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This baseline initiative does not take into account climate change threats into the management plan of the protected areas. Climate change impacts need to be monitored so that this threat to biodiversity can be effectively addressed in the management of SPANs through preventive measures for reducing risks from fires and pest outbreaks. The pilot adaptation measures tested under the UNDP-GEF MSP will provide useful lessons on adaptation measures that can be integrated into management of SPANs.
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2012 Protected Areas – Caucasus Ecoregion. MAVA Foundation and WWF Armenia are implementing this project covering the Caucasus region (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia) that aims to enhance: stakeholders’ participation, capacity building, sustainable financing of SPANs, and conservation of critically important natural ecosystems. The three main objectives are: (i) an effective mechanism is in place that ensures the implementation of the Programme of Work on Protected Areas (PoWPA) in the countries; (ii) relevant organizations in at least three countries of the Ecoregion (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia), most importantly the governments, are capable of implementing all priority targets and actions of the PoWPA, and (iii) adequate funding is available for implementation of priority targets and actions. The initiative began in 2007 and will continue through 2011. The resources allocated for Armenia are approximately USD 172,25018; while there is no separate allocation for Syunik region, the region will benefit from the activities.
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Projects under the CEPF and WWF to strengthen biodiversity conservation through protected areas. This programme has various components, described below, that are aimed at promoting conservation and sustainable management of the critical forest ecosystems in the Caucasus region (including Armenia). The budget for the Syunik region in southern Armenia totals approximately USD 860,000.
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Assistance to establishment of new Protected Area “Arevik” in Southern Armenia (USD 150,000). The Ministry of Nature Protection and Ministry of Agriculture of Armenia in cooperation with CEPF and WWF Armenia are implementing the project in order to establish the “Arevik” protected area in Syunik region with following steps: implementation of research and inventory on flora and fauna species diversity (including the endemic, rare and endangered species ) of the proposed area and surroundings, as well as mapping (in GIS) their habitats; clarification and drafting of the boundaries as well as creation of the digital map for the area with consideration of all land users; development of the management plan of “Arevik” SPAN and consultation of it with all stakeholders; preparation of the draft government decisions on establishment of the “Arevik” SPAN and its administration; establishment of the infrastructure for the “Arevik” SPAN; professional development and training for protected area staff.
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Assistance to establishment of new protected area “Zangezur” in Southern Armenia (USD 174,000). The Ministry of Nature Protection of Armenia and Syunik Regional administration in cooperation with CEPF and WWF Armenia are implementing the project in order to establish the “Zangezur” protected area in Syunik region with following steps: implementation of research and inventory on flora and fauna species diversity (including the endemic, rare and endangered species ) of the proposed area and surroundings, as well as mapping (in GIS) their habitats; clarification and drafting of the boundaries as well as creation of the digital map for the area with consideration for all land users; development of the management plan of “Zangezur” SPAN and consultation of it with all stakeholders; preparation of the draft government decisions on establishment of the “Zangezur” SPAN and its administration; establishment of the infrastructure for the “Zangezur” SPAN; professional development and trainings for protected area staff.
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These 2 protected areas fall within the forested areas that have been identified as vulnerable to climate change, yet the impacts of climate change and variability are not being fully assessed and considered in the management of these areas. The outcomes of the UNDP-GEF Adaptation MSP will help to investigate and develop concrete measures aimed at mitigation of the impact of climate change on the forest biodiversity of the newly established protected areas and increase awareness of the neighboring communities on the importance of reducing pressures on the most vulnerable areas.
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Increasing the awareness and commitment of decision makers to biodiversity and ecosystem conservation in Armenia’s part of East Lesser Caucasus Corridor (USD 100,000; there is no separate allocation for Syunik region, however activities for Syunik region are included). Regional administrations of Ararat, Vayots Dzor, and Syunik regions, in cooperation with CEPF and WWF Armenia, are implementing the project in order to improve conservation of Armenian Mouflon and Bezoar Goat. The components include: training for community leaders, conservation agencies' administrations, residents, hunters, foresters and border-guards; publication of journalistic research articles and broadcast TV programmes; organization of photo exhibition; preparation and broadcasting of documentaries; publication of booklets, guidebook, billboards and posters.
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Study of the present state of populations of amphibians and reptiles as a base for updating the Red Data List of Armenia and IUCN (USD 18,000; there is no separate allocation for Syunik region, however activities for Syunik region are included.). CEPF and WWF Armenia are implementing the project aimed at assessment in quantitative terms information on population distribution, size and structure across the ranges of reptile and amphibian species in Armenia; preparation of a set of scientifically justified recommendations and guidelines for the species conservation for submission to the MONP; preparation of recommendations for updating National and IUCN Red Data Lists.
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Public monitoring of infrastructure programme of Millennium Challenge Account of Armenia (MCA) in the Eastern Lesser Caucasus Corridor (USD 20,000; there is no separate allocation for Syunik region, however activities for Syunik region are included). CEPF and WWF Armenia are handling the project designed to analyze the approved proposal of MCA in order to identify the vulnerable areas (critical ecosystems) under the project; to create a network with environmental NGO for strengthening influence during EIA process (in collaboration with other relevant networks coalitions, e.g. PRSP, CENN, etc.), increase involvement of local rural communities in the EIA process and monitoring; to organize small local monitoring groups for early reaction; to organize multi-stakeholder discussions and round tables; to support participation in public hearings during EIA of the MCA project components; to lobby organization of public hearings on EIA; to organize mass-media events to improve dissemination of information and to stimulate wider participation in the project implementation.
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Development of an IBA Caretaker Network in the priority corridors (USD 200,000; There is no separate allocation for Syunik region, however activities for Syunik region are included). The long-term goal of the project being implemented by CEPF and Birdlife International is to improve conditions at 31 sites for globally threatened species and proposing an effective network consisting of local residents in order to promote conservation of identified sites (priority corridors for globally threatened bird species).
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Promoting alternative livelihoods through small grants for local communities located around the protected areas in southern Armenia (USD 198,000). This project (CEPF and WWF Armenia) covers the existing Shikahogh State Reserve and planned Arevik and Zangezur SPANs, and aims to develop management guidelines to encourage sustainable resource use and marketing and distribution of sustainably-harvested products and services in selected local communities of the Syunik region; organization of training on sustainable use of biological resources in selected local communities of the Syunik region; promotion of alternative livelihoods for local communities through developing ecotourism (in Shvanidzor and Shikahogh villages), provision of capacity for sustainable resource use, marketing and distribution of sustainably-harvested products (in Gekhi, Tsav, Srashen and Nyuvadi villages), establishment of a nursery for growing of firs and planes trees (in Nerqin Hand village), organization of beekeeping (in Shishkert and Kajaran villages), organizing dry fruit production (in Aldara village). This initiative will play a critical role in reducing anthropogenic threats to forest ecosystems. The partnerships and community involvement nurtured by this initiative can provide a good foundation for building knowledge at the local level on adaptation practices connected with protection of forest biodiversity.
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Syunik Forest Enterprises’ expenditures on forest management. Under the baseline scenario, Forest Enterprises of the Syunik region are expected to receive approximately USD 3 million over the period 2008-2011 on forest management activities: preservation and protection of the forest fund, reforestation activities, ensuring sustainable use of forest resources, forest monitoring, stocktaking and accounting. However, these baseline activities lack an assessment component measuring the impacts of climate change and of the massive invasion of leaf-eating pest species on forest growth. They do not envisage restoration works to respond to climate-induced degradation. International practice is suggesting a large number of autonomous adaptation strategies for planted forests such as changes in management intensity and hardwood/ softwood species mix. However proven adaptation practices are as yet very limited for the mountainous mixed species natural forests. Forest Enterprises do not have the capacity to select and implement appropriate adaptation measures.
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Natural Resource Management & Poverty Reduction Project (USD 16 billion; there are no resources targeted for the Syunik region). The Government of Armenia with support of the World Bank is implementing the project to adopt sustainable natural resource management practices and to alleviate rural poverty in mountainous areas where degradation is reaching a critical point. The project helps averting further deterioration of natural resources (soil, water, forest, fishery, and biodiversity) and stabilizes incomes in the local communities. The first of the project component focuses on selected micro-catchments. The second component supports rehabilitation, protection, and sustainable management of state forests in the project area; improves the forest sector's institutional, legal, and policy framework; and enhances institutional capacity to monitor and control forest operations. The third component supports measures to improve the role of two key protected areas in the conservation and sustainable use of the region's biodiversity and sustain these improvements. Although the focus areas are Tavush and Gegharkunik regions, improvement of the forest sector's institutional, legal, and policy framework and enhancement of institutional capacity to monitor and control forest operations are ultimately linked to other forest regions too, including Syunik. This project, which started in 2002 and continues through 2008, is being implemented in the Gegharkunik and Tavush regions and has not addressed climate change adaptation measures as such. However its outcomes could be assessed and evaluated for their practicality as adaptation measures to climate change impacts, and correspondingly applied in the Syunik region19.
Environmental policy and law
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Support to the Sustainable Management of Natural Resources in the South Caucasus (working title). The Ministry of Nature Protection of Armenia and GTZ, given the importance of sustainable management of natural resources, are planning a new regional project with the framework of the European Neighborhood Policy and Caucasian Initiative in the field of environmental policy and law. The overall objective is: sustainable management and a higher appreciation of the value of natural resources are better integrated into the public and private sectors and society on a regional, national and local level. The components of the first phase projects are: institutional development, reform of legal framework, human capacity development, and enhanced public awareness.
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The entire time frame for the programme is 2007-2015, with the first phase from 2007-2009. The budget for the first phase is approximately USD 4.6 million. The pilot adaptation measures tested under the UNDP-GEF MSP will provide useful lessons on adaptation measures that can be integrated into the management of mountainous forests. Project experiences can guide the development of policy under this long term initiative.
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As described above, the Government of the Republic of Armenia, in cooperation with international organizations and donor countries, is undertaking several initiatives to strengthen forest management and conservation of forest ecosystems in the Syunik region, and will continue to do so in the future. Notable among these are the development of forest planning documents for the first time since the early 90s, rehabilitation of forest monitoring and inventory system, control of illegal logging, aerial pest control, establishment of the Forest Recovery and Development Fund, and development of the SPAN system. Together, these measures create favorable conditions to mitigate anthropogenic threats to forest ecosystems. However, the capacity to consider additional threats due to climate change will be lacking.
Baseline gaps and barrier analysis
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In the absence of a GEF-supported adaptation intervention, planned activities for management of the south eastern mountain forest ecosystem of Armenia are unlikely to take into account the expected impacts of climate change, including variability. This is in spite of the scientific consensus on vulnerability of this area and the potential adverse impacts on the forest ecosystem such as recession of lower-bound forests, change in species composition, increase in pest infestation, and increased risk of forest fires (see section on Impact of Expected Climate Change in Syunik).
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Given the expected adverse impacts, the preferred normative situation for Armenia is one where the forestry and biodiversity sectors in the Syunik region should be managed in a way that forest ecosystems are able to respond to climate change to the limits of their capabilities. This can be achieved (a) by reducing or removing existing pressures, and (b) by adopting policies and practices which directly assist species in forest ecosystems in adjusting to climate change, for example strengthening existing management regimes within and outside forest and protected areas to enhance resilience of the forest ecosystem by focusing on species that are more vulnerable and sensitive to climate change, and monitoring of forest biodiversity, particularly since populations of species serve as barometers of forest ecosystem integrity. It is in this sense that existing baseline programming can be enhanced to ensure that pressures are minimized more than they would be in the baseline scenario through additional adaptation response measures.
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In the absence of this UNDP-GEF Adaptation MSP, such options will not be explored, integrated or implemented in the Syunik region because of the prevalence of several barriers to mainstreaming climate change adaptation:
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The planning process that governs management of forest ecosystems does not include the climate change threat as a criterion in decision making.
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Institutions and individuals in a position to influence management of forest ecosystems do not have the capacity to observe and forecast adaptive capacity of forests, understand forest species change instigated by climate change and options for combined efforts for autonomous and planned adaptation, and then to use this information to raise awareness and mobilize programmatic choices regarding protection of forest ecosystems in the face of climate change.
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A systematic assessment and understanding of climate change impact on forests that can help identify how communities of forest species will be affected by climate change i.e., what physical and biological changes could take place as a result of changes in temperature, precipitation and aggravation of situation with extreme climate events, is yet to be conducted for the Syunik region. This, in turn, would make it possible to identify appropriate response measures and integrate them into ongoing conservation efforts as well as the development agenda so that the forest ecosystems in the Syunik region do not face additional pressures.
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There are no concrete experiences with implementing adaptation response measures, which can be leveraged to motivate wide scale acceptance and adoption of such measures.
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The FNC and TNA (both completed) and SNC (currently under implementation) are the first exercises in Armenia that have considered this issue in a serious and rigorous manner based on UNFCCC guidelines. Thus far the analysis has been at a national scale (FNC, TNA), and regional scale covering the Syunik region too (SNC). These exercises have been instrumental in prioritizing, through broad-based stakeholder consultation, the Syunik region as an area where adaptation to climate change should be taken into account following a rigorous methodology and process.
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Based on current and future vulnerability assessments provided above and considering that evidences of climate change have already been observed during the last decades, adaptation actions in the Syunik region are not only something to be applied in the future but urgently needed now. Discussions during the PPG stage with forest authorities, central and regional government representatives, donors, environmental NGOs and research institutes reinforced this point and have shown that the interest and commitment to the concept of addressing adaptation issues in the Syunik region is present. However, in order to move from concept to practice, a detailed and quantified impact assessment needs to take place in the focused geographic boundaries of the Syunik region, feasible response measures need to be identified and implementation of these activities need to be piloted, coupled with developing institutional and individual capacities.
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