Europe at Present [Spring 2003]
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FROM THE ECONOMIC TO POLITICAL CRISIS (1980-1989)For the first time in many years in 1981 there was a lack of nourishment in stores. Strikes and street manifestations began arising and emigration increased. In the mid 1980’s inflation reached 140% annually, there was over 1 million unemployed and Yugoslavia with great trouble paid off interest from foreign debts, which were estimated at $19 billion. With the rise of discontent, serious incidents broke out in Kosovo. In 1986 the general atmosphere among citizens was becoming critical. The communist party LCY (League of Communists of Yugoslavia) with the federal army was quickly losing power. After the death of Tito, there was no longer a person who would continue the unification of the nation. That is why local parties, who concentrated people of the same nationality, were constantly growing in power, while the federal government and the collective presidency had less actual power. The economic crisis strengthened these tendencies, since every republic tried to retain the majority of their profits and their potential. The key factor in the future breakdown of Yugoslavia was the rebirth of Serbia, which began in 1981 with different events in Kosovo, especially the coming into power of Slobodan Milosevic of the Serbian local party, LCY. 111 In 1987 the leader of LCY in Serbia, Stambolic sent Milosevic to control the situation in Kosovo and called to order local Serbian nationalists. Instead of fighting off nationalists he became their leader. In 1987 Milosevic became leader of LCY in Serbia by using common anti-Albanian ideologies and their will to keep Kosovo at any cost. Milosevic wanted to achieve 2 goals: abolish Kosovo’s and Vojvodina’s autonomy and strengthen their power, in order to dominate the entire federation. His pursuit to changes in the constitution caused uneasiness in public opinion and local parties. Slovenians, Croatians and Macedonians feared that these changes were the first steps towards restoration of a centralized nation controlled by the Serbs. The fall of communist regimes in south-eastern Europe and the weakening of USSR in 1989 considerably increased the development of events. The intervention of soviet armies no longer was a threat to Yugoslavia therefore eliminating the key element in cementing the federation. The communist authority was then questioned by new political movements that weakened another element in the unification. What’s more, this proved that other small nations would be able to successfully fight for their independence. 112
MARCH TOWARDS WAR (1989-1991)The modification of the Yugoslavian constitution from 28 March 1989 by which Kosovo’s and Vojvodina’s autonomy was almost completely abolished caused great concern in other republics, especially in Slovenia and Croatia. The situation worsened by the economic crisis and hyperinflation – in 1989 it reached 2500%. LCY, one of few elements unifying the federation, ceased to exist. The federal government continued to do what was in its power to prevent the federation from falling apart. Milosevic was now aware of the fact that Yugoslavia was going to collapse and unable to prevent this he believed that Serbia during these times should keep all lands inhabited by Serbs in Croatia and Bosnia, as well as Macedonia. In April, Milan Kucan was elected president of Slovenia. For the first time in May there were free elections to the parliament in Croatia. Franjo Tudjman’s Croatian Democratic Union was victorious, and later he was elected for president. Tudjman, a former partisan and general of the Yugoslavian army, spent 9 years in jail for “Croatian nationalism”. His goal was independence for his country and unification of all territories inhabited by Croatians. Tudjman and Kucan quickly started to cooperate, officially in order to change Yugoslavia from a federation to a confederation. By the summer of 1990 they started to prepare the declaration of independence and war in its defence. 113 Tito, in fear of invasion by the Soviets and in need of support for his authority, created a mighty army. However in 1969, after the USSR invasion on Czechoslovakia, the Yugoslavian dictator called upon a different formation, territory defence. In 1990 local territorial defence units and police in Slovenia and Croatia were under republic control and became the origin of the national armies of both countries. Milosevic decided to threaten Tudjman with secession of regions of Croatia inhabited by Serbs – Kraina and Slavonia. August 19 Croatian Serbs announced autonomy of the province Kraina. From this moment on in Kraina and Slavonia, violent incidents constantly broke out. Both Serbs and Croatians gathered weapons and prepared for conflict. Milosevic gathered more and more power only for himself. The Serbian leader was keen on gaining full control over the country only for himself and Serbia. Milosevic supported the Croatian Serbs. Their plan to make Serbia a dominating power was to be realized by including Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as Croatian Slavonia, Kraina and Dalmacia, as well as Macedonia. 114 On December 23 in Slovenia, a referendum was held in which 88% voted for independence. 3 days later Milan Kucan announced independence of Slovenia, however underlining that this would be possible only if the negotiations concerning the establishment of the confederation would fall through. He was supported by Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as Macedonia, however federal and Serbian governments rejected this proposition. 115 On March 15, the Serbian republic of Kraina announced secession of this province and started to determine the boundaries of their country. Serbs living in eastern Slavonia also started to prepare for secession. On April 1, Serbs from Kraina announced their accession into Serbia. From this moment in Kraina and Slavonia there was not one day of peace. Serbs and Croatians fortified their villages, hamlets and regions; they set up barricades on roads and introduced patrols on their territories.116 On May 19, there was a referendum in Croatia – 95% voted for an independent and sovereign country. However, on May 28 Tudjman called for national military forces (national guard) and openly began preparations for defence. 117 On 25 June 1991, at 20.00 Slovenia and Croatia concurrently announced their independence. In response the federal armies began their military operations in order to gain control over these rebellious regions. These series of events gave birth to the conflicts in former Yugoslavia lasting till present day.
Yugoslavia’s population in 1991
Source: Maciej Kuczyński, Krwawiąca Europa. Konflikty zbrojne i punkty zapalne w latach 1990-2000. Tło historyczne I stan obecny, Dom Wydawniczy Bellona, Warszawa 2001. THE WAR AND THE SPLIT WAR IN SLOVENIA The military action against Slovenia began on 27 June 1991 and was conducted by the federal army. It had 20 thousand soldiers in the regional bases but only 3 thousand were ready to fight, while the military ability of Slovenia was over 40 thousand. 118 Just after the beginning of the war, almost every federal unit was immediately surrounded. That made the federal authorities sent the aircraft to bomb the Slovenian barricades. The bomb attack appeared to be a failure and the federal units surrendered or simply ran away. The rest of the soldiers, staying in the bases, were blocked. The human cost of the first stage of fights was only 60 dead soldiers and 2 thousand jailed. Belgrade could not sent any military help to support the already fighting army, as all additional units would have to be delivered by sea or cross the Croatian territory. The last attempt of the federal soldiers to support the surrounded was carried out on 7 July, when special armored units left their garrison in Croatia, but they were caught in the trap set by the Slovenian. 119 During the whole war, there were only 100 people killed and few hundred wounded. Belgrade was not focused on fighting with Slovenia, as the authorities wanted to take over Croatian territories inhabited by the Serbs. The peace treaty was signed on the island Brioni on 8 June 1991. Slovenia finally won its independence and the war has not affected this country again. 120
The position of Croatia in the very beginning of the fights was much worse than the one of Slovenia. First of all, there were more federal forces staying on the Croatian territory. Moreover, the local Serbia military groups also controlled some parts of the country. These units could be supported anytime by the additional detachments from Bosnia or Serbia. Serbian army had 28 thousand troops in the region, comparing to 75 thousand of Croatian armed forces (police and soldiers). The fights began on 26 June. Croats learnt quickly that Serbia and the federalists tried to hide their cooperation. And while the forces of Croatia and Serbia were fighting, the federal troops usually intervened to allow the Serbs to run away. Although the EC wanted to stop the conflict, trying to persuade Belgrade to withdraw the troops from the fights, on 7 July the federation frankly supported the Serbia rebels in the battle near Osijeck. Croatia was forced to conduct the war both with Yugoslavia and Serbia. 121 From 22 July, Serbia was backed by the federal aircraft. Already on 1 August Tudjman announced the creation of the government of national unity, which included also representatives of other ethnic groups. At the same time the Croatian proposed negotiations, as they wanted to win some more time to switch their industry on the military production and to buy more weapon. On 15 August Serbia minority announced a creation of autonomy in the Western Slavonia. That meant the third front for the Croatian army (after Kraina and Eastern Slavonia). It is worth mentioning that criminals, taken to the Serbia army, supported rebels. The most notorious were “Captain Dragan” and “Arkan”- Zeljko Raznatovica. The lack of the armoured vehicles among Croats made it impossible for them to strike back. Till the beginning of September the whole region of Kraina was taken over by the Serbs. Nevertheless, they also suffered their first defeat as Croatia won their battles in the towns of Sisak and Karlovac. Finally Serbia managed to gain the control over whole eastern zone in Croatia (from Knina in the south to Pakraca in the north). Furthermore the federal navy started to attack Croatian position on the cost and block their harbours. To get an armament the Croats decided to take over the garrisons and the ammunition, weapon and vehicles being held there. After these battles the federal army began a big offensive. A total war had begun, what resulted in an action taken by the UN. The Security Council imposed an embargo on arms shipments in the Balkan region. Despite this fact, the war began for good. Almost whole territory of Croatia was under fire. 122 In November Serbia started the evacuation of its garrisons. In the same time the federal navy stopped its harbour blockade under the EC pressure. And while eyes of the world’s public opinion where focused on Osijeck, the Croatian army started the strike back. The initiative came back to Croatia, as its troops started to win, the Serbs were forced to withdraw some forces to Bosnia and Kosovo. Finally, Germany acknowledged the independence of Slovenia and Croatia, and EC imposed sanctions on whole Yugoslavia. On 3 January 1992 special representative of the UN managed to negotiate an armistice. 123 This agreement gave the Serbs whole territory they had occupied. But Croatia understood the necessity of more time to get the lost land back. Furthermore Mr Milosevic knew that Serbia had achieved everything they had wanted. Longer war could bring only problems. The Yugoslavian economy was already exhausted and Bosnia started to draw the attention and efforts of the federation. On 15 January 1992 the countries of the EC accepted the independence of Slovenia and Croatia. 124 The UN forces - UNPROFOR (14 thousand) were located in Croatia to keep peace, while all Serbs were told to leave Croatian territory. The first stage of this war was closed, but the definite solution was postponed till 1995.
Along with the democratisation process all over the Eastern and Central Europe, also in Bosnia and Herzegovina new political parties started to emerge. One of the firsts was Muslim Party of Democratic Action (Stranka Demokratske Akcije – SDA), with the leadership of Alija Izetbegovic and Ejub Ganic. Another fraction was a nationalistic Serbia Democratic Party (Srbska Demokratska Stranka – SDS), with Radovan Karadzic as a leader. The third party was Croatian Democratic Party (Hrvatska Demokratska Zajednica – HDZ). These tree parties cooperated strongly to win elections with the communists in Bosnia in 1990. They managed to create coalition and to take over the power and all positions in public administration (government, police, army etc.). 125 This coalition appeared to be a disaster in the very short time. Every minister questioned the decision of another one. Money was spent on different aims than planed. SDS supported the idea of federation with Yugoslavia, HDZ – a big autonomy in the framework of federation; SDA hesitated between these two proposals. It simply led to the conflict. But soon SDA and HDZ started to talk about independence. In March 1991 SDA created secret Patriotic League – a military wing of Muslim. Also the Croatians organized military fraction Croatian Defense Council – HVO. Following these facts, Serbs created military units too. 126 After secession of Slovenia and Croatia, Bosnia announced its neutrality in the conflict. On 15 October 1991 the Parliament of Bosnia and Herzegovina accepted the declaration of the independence of the republic. That unleashed real storm of conflicts. In referendum in November 1991, Bosnian Serbs were for independence of their region – Karadzic announced the creation of Serb Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The leaders of three parties decided that on 29 February and 1 March, the referendum on independence would take place. But just few days before the voting, the military groups started to build barricades and the future lines of republic division already appeared. The Muslims overwhelmed in the center of the country and in Sarajevo and Tuzla, while the Croatians controlled Western Herzegovina and Serbs Eastern Herzegovina and Western Bosnia. 127 On 1 March 1992, just before announcing the results of referendum, the war began. These were mainly the fights of the local military units. The biggest problem for the leaders appeared to be a lack of support from many people living in Bosnia (three ethnic groups; people often lived in mixed marriages and they did not identify with a certain group). The creation of the native states had been postponed, as the leaders understood the necessity of building strong military position. The negotiations were stopped till the end of March, generally, without being interrupted by any king of serious, military incident.128 The real war started with the beginning of April. During a peace manifestation in Sarajevo, military units were shooting and killing innocent people, who just wanted new elections. After this sad accident the governments of the EC and the USA accepted the independence of Bosnia and Herzegovina. At the beginning the military initiative belonged to the Serbs, who took control over a half of territory. The prisoners where held in the concentration camps, probably the biggest hell on earth during the whole conflict. A big, long-lasting battle began in Sarajevo between the Serbs and Muslims. The Serbs had been supported by the federal army, which after the creation of the New Yugoslavia was withdrawn from the territory of Bosnia. But they left some of their machines and ammunition to the Bosnian Serbs. On 1 July the Special Forces of the UN landed in Sarajevo to secure the local airport and make it finally possible to deliver humanitarian aid in the region. News about a cruelty in the conflict started to reach the public opinion of the world. The estimations show that probably between 4 to 8 thousand civilians and prisoners had been killed by the Serbs. The report of the UN special representative – Pole Tadeusz Mazowiecki proved the ethnic cruelty among every group and contributed to the steps taken by the UN and Western countries to soften the crisis. In October a new kind of war began. Everybody against everybody. Almost 2 million people were forced to leave their homes between May and October. Moreover, a lot of humanitarian aid was stolen and sold on the black market. Even the enemies were able to stop fighting for few days to allow the rivals to gather money or food, so that they could trade and earn money. This procedure had completely destroyed the economy and society of Bosnia. Furthermore ethnic cleansing came back in 1992, when 25 thousand of civilians were killed. First serious peace initiative was presented in the UN on 2 January 1993. It was called Vance–Owen plan. In the framework of this project Bosnia was to be demilitarised and divided into 10 regions. Every minority would get 3 and the tenth would be Sarajevo – inhabited by every group and administrated by the UN. Furthermore, the UN forces would also control the rest of autonomies, but the country would stay united and ruled by a president. The negotiators could work out a final solution so the new initiative failed soon. Serbia army dominated the front what made Izetbegovic and Boban accept the Vance-Owen plan. Because of the fact that agreement was giving only 43% of the territory to Serbs the Serbian Parliament in Pale rejected to accept it.129 The situation of the Serbs started to deteriorate. Many troops deserted, Yugoslavia couldn’t send new ones because of the uncertain internal situation. On the contrary the Muslim army was enriched with the new soldiers and weapon supply from the Arab countries. Mr Milosevic realized that they should accept the plan. He understood that after the creation of the autonomy Serbia region could be incorporated into Yugoslavia. Nevertheless Karadzic didn’t share Milosevic’s opinion, as he wanted the creation of the independent country. This difference in opinions influenced the future stages of the war. On 20 July 1993 new peace project called Owen–Stoltenberg plan was announced. It considered Bosnia and Herzegovina to be divided into Serbia, Muslim and Croatian Republic. But the initiative failed again, as the fighting groups did not agreed. Although the war continued and the world public opinion exerted the pressure on their governments, the UN and NATO did not want to interfere. In 1994 the USA started to support the built of the Muslim–Croatian alliance. Finally, in February NATO used its F-16 for the first time. The first sign of peace appeared on 1 March when Croatia and the Muslims worked out a solution in Washington, which resulted in building a federation in Bosnia with 2 presidents, common parliament and government. Already on 23 June the new government of Bosnia federation was created, which was also a government of Bosnia and Herzegovina. After few days the foreign ministers of the USA, Russia and the EU announced their peace project. In the framework of this plan 49% of territory was given to the Serbs, the rest to the new federation of the Muslim and Croatians. Milosevic supported this solution but couldn’t make Izetbegovic accept it. In order to avoid further sanctions Milosevic broke all contacts with fighting Serbs and imposed Yugoslavian sanctions on Bosnia. Nevertheless sanctions, which previously had been imposed on Yugoslavia hadn’t been erased. On 1 May 1995, Croatian forces attacked the Serbs in Western Slavonia. This offensive allowed the Croats to take over the region in just 4 days. But this success changed nothing in Bosnia. Moreover the fights affected more innocent, including the UN forces, as Serbs started to arrest them. Fortunately in just a month they were fretted. That fact made the US government to increase help for Croatia, as it perceived Croatia, as the only force strong enough to stop Serbia.130 On 4 August, Croatian army attacked Serbia position in Kraina. Milosevic could not send any additional units, as he could be facing then more serious American sanctions. He understood that Kraina had been lost. That made Serbia troops realize that Yugoslavia wouldn’t help. The morale of Serbia soldiers decreased significantly. 131 On 18 August, Richard Holbrooke announced his new peace project for Bosnia. The country was to be divided into Serbia and Muslim–Croatian parts. Sanctions on Yugoslavia were to be lifted. In case of Serbia rejection of the solution, NATO was to help the Bosnian army. Moreover, the US promised the Serbia region to confederate with New Yugoslavia, if they ever would like. But just few days after this announcement Karadzic rejected to accept the idea as his army again won some battles against the Muslims and Bosnians. That decision made the Western countries furious and they decided to attack the Serbia position till they accept Holbrooke’s plan. NATO finally supported Muslims in Bosnia. Soon Milosevic received all the rights from Karadzic to negotiate in the name of the Bosnian Serbs. The talks began on 1 September, without any brake in NATO attacks on Serbia position. Finally on 8 September in Geneva the peace negotiations among the chefs of the Foreign Offices of Croatia, Bosnia and Yugoslavia took place. Yugoslavia accepted the independence of Bosnia with the borders from 1992; the government in Sarajevo accepted the Serbia Republic in Bosnia. The Muslims and Croatians got 51% of the territory, while Bosnian Serbs kept only 49%. On 26 September the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Bosnia, Croatia and Yugoslavia gathered in New York to agree that Bosnia would remain one country, a federation of Serbia and Croatian – Muslim republic. This decision was a starting – point for further negotiations. Surprisingly the Serbs stroke back again what made the NATO air force bomb their positions. And finally on 12 October the armistice came into the force. It was 36th armistice and this war and the first one that had been obeyed. 22 October was the first day of peace. 132
The talks took place in Dayton on 23 October. One of the first issues to discuss was the future of the war criminals like: Karadzic, Mladic, Martic and Blaskic. They were abandoned to take part in the political life of the future country. Another consensus was reached between Croatia and Serbia separatists, who agreed that Kraina would come back to Croatia after two years of the UN control. Probably the most important agreement was signed on 21 November 1995. It described the future of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The main ideas were: 133 134
Peace treaty, which repeated the conditions of agreement from Dayton, was signed in Paris on 14 December 1995. UNPROFOR finished its mission in former Yugoslavia on 20 December, being substituted by the IFOR forces subordinated to NATO. BOSNIA AFTER THE WAR (1995-1999) 1. 1 JANUARY – 30 JUNE 1996 Summing up the 3.5-year long war in Bosnia this conflict resulted in ca. 80-90 thousand killed (within almost 60 thousand Muslims) and at least the same number of cripples; 1.7 million citizens were forced to leave their homes and over one million left the country itself. Moreover the whole land had been heavily destroyed by the military actions, soldiers and looters. There were also mines everywhere. The next problem was a wide access to the weapon of various kinds. All of that negatively affected the future of the country. 135 At the beginning of 1995 the IFOR troops began its mission to Bosnia. This powerful force amounted to 60 thousand people, was well-organized and supported by NATO air forces from Italy and American aircraft carriers on the Adriatic Sea. The aim of Paris treaty was to finish with the division of the country. Meanwhile none of the sides wanted the unification. The proof for that was a mass exodus of Serb civilians from Muslim districts of Sarajevo. Moreover, there happened everywhere various bloody incidents between the ethnic groups and their forces. 136 However, there were also positive changes. On 9 January the air bridge with the humanitarian aid to Sarajevo was closed. In the cities under the control of IFOR an ordinary live was coming back. Furthermore, all sides began to release the captives. Surprisingly, on 21 January Bosnian Prime Minister, Haris Silajdzic, resigned. This bright and moderate politician appeared to be inconvenient for conservative and more Islamic Izetbegovic and SDA. His successor was Hasan Muratovic, supported strongly by Izetbegovic. This way the president, SDA and the radical Islamists had strengthened their position in the country. Relations between this group and the opposition were very bad. Meanwhile the difficulties with the implementation of Paris Treaty were arising. The protests followed each arrests of war criminals (Serbs) or new division plans of Bosnian cities (Croats in Mostar). Moreover, IFOR was still discovering and eliminating many Muslim secret military training-camps and arsenals. At that time it was also proved that Bosnian Muslims were supported by officers of Iranian secret service. Facing that situation the Contact Group for Yugoslavia (Britain, France, Italy, Germany, Russia and the United States) called a meeting in Rome for 17-18 February. Tudjman, Milosevic and Izetbegovic were forced there to make some concessions, concerning war criminals, Mostar case and expelling of Iranian officers. However, the declarations did not cure the problems. Due to deadlock in Mostar the EU administrator, Hans Köschnik resigned. The paradox was that this the faster rebuilt and dynamic developing city - due to the EU funds - still couldn’t cope with the ethnic problem, and the conflict, this time between Muslims and Serbs against Croatians, arose. In March the Americans began the next stage of implementation the peace plans in Bosnia – creation of the common Croatian-Muslim army. The USA supposed that in the future the most possible military conflict might break out between Muslims and Serbs willing to win back their territories in Kraina and districts in Sarajevo. Therefore there was a need to reinforce the Bosnian army, especially the Muslim troops. This investment was to be financed mainly by the USA and Arabic countries and the training issues fell to Turkey. 137 The real situation in Bosnia showed that the declaration from Dayton left only on the paper. Each ethnic group did not tolerate another one. Each one just tried to gain control over a city or a territory. The return of the refuges was a fiction. Locally the two-national coalitions arose, but their only aim was the fight with the third party. Under these circumstances no solid peace was possible and the internal diversification had deepened.138 In that time among Bosnian Serbs a new internal conflict was arising. The counter parts were the main fraction of SDS: on the one hand, president Radovan Karadzic and Mamcilo Krajsnik (with centre in Pale and Eastern Bosnia), and on the other hand, Prime Minster Rajko Kasagic and Predrag Radic (the region of Banja Luka). The latter group had good relations with Milosevic in Belgrad and insisted on dismissal of Karadzic, accused of war crimes. Karadzic, alarmed by this situation, decided to dismiss Kasagic. This step met a dissatisfaction of the West. 139 140 On 13 June an international conference was held in Florence to sum up the first months of the peace in Bosnia. All the conflict sides were also forced there to sign the permitted armament quotas and accept the date of 15 September as a day of parliamentary and presidential elections in Bosnia. On 30 June under the pressure of western countries Karadzic resigned, but before he pointed Biljana Plavsic, his associated, as the successor. On the same day in Mostar the voting for the city council was held. According to the expectations in national districts won the ethnic parties. Summing up, the unification affords of the West failed and after half a year of the peace the conflicts were still alive. 2. 1 JULY – 31 DECEMBER 1996 In July due to the beginning of the trial in the Hague and questioning of witnesses an international arrest warrant for Radovan Karadzic and general Ratko Mladic was released. The both ones were forced to be hiding. 141 The summer of 1996 in Bosnia was the time of preparation to the elections. Simultaneously it was one of the calmest period for a long time. The first refuges started to come back from abroad. But at the same time many citizens of Bosnia were leaving for the USA, Canada or Australia. The Americans began also the training of the Muslim army. With the day of the voting coming the atmosphere turned more tense. In the regions of Serbs and Croats it was peaceful, because the ethnic parties did not have any competitors. However, in the Muslim areas Izetbegovic started a violent campaign against Silajdzic’s and Beslagic’s opposition. The raiding parties, the police, the authorities and also the press controlled by the radical Muslims fought against the opponents of SDA in various ways. The elections to the Bosnian executives once more confirmed that the peace plan was unrealistic. Usually the ethnic minorities were not allowed to vote and the result was as expected. In national regions the winners were national parties: SDA, SDS and HDZ. The Bosnian presidency fell to Serb Krajsnik, Croatian Kresimir Zubaka and Muslim Izetbegovic, who with the highest number of votes became the head of the presidency. The elections to the both parts of Bosnia were also dominated by the ethnic parties. SDA and HDZ won in Croatian-Muslim federation, and SDS won in the Serb parliament in Pale. As the president of the Croatian-Muslim federation Kresimir Zubak (HDZ) was elected, and as the Serb head – Biljana Plavsic. After the elections the Contact Group decided that the international forces will remain in Bosnia at least till the end of 1997, but reduced to 25 thousand soldiers. Their name was changed to SFOR (Stabilization Force). 142 In November the main theme was the conflict among Serbs over the control of the Serb army. Hiding Ratko Mladic competed with the new official chief, Gen. Pero Culicia. There also occurred some military actions against Muslim civilians. 3. 1 JANUARY – 31 DECEMBER 1997 In 1997 we should focus on the situation in the Yugoslavia itself. Milosevic did not recognized there the results of the elections to regional councils which were won by the opposition. In answer people came out in the streets. Finally demonstrations forced him to accept the success of the opposition. Moreover this conflict had weaken the international position of Belgrade and its possible influence on the situation in Bosnia. Meanwhile in Bosnia Croatians and Serbs developed and tightened the contacts with their origin countries – Croatia and Yugoslavia, what indicated the plans of the future integration of those Bosnian territories with the neighbours. 143 In spring 1997 an official visit to Bosnia was paid by Pope Jan Paul II. The mass in Sarajevo was unfortunately a great opportunity for catholic Croatians to manifest their nationalism. That had worsen the Croatian-Muslim relations additionally. In the same time in Washington one tried to find out an effective solution to the impasse in Bosnia (no unification, no refuges returning home, no results in hunting for war criminals). As a main cause of this unfavourable situation the government in Pale, led de facto still by Karadzic, was seen. Therefore the USA decided to support the authorities in Banja Luka with president Biljana Plavsic then opposing to him and to make her power real. 144 The Serb society in this conflict was divided. Most of the army, the police, the Serbs from eastern territories and Yugoslavia itself supported Krajsnik (and Karadzic). Plavsic gained the support also from a part of the police and the army and moreover from the Serbs from western region, and finally, what’s the most important, from SFOR troops. The atmosphere became even more tense as Pale group tended to gain the power by force. Eventually Plavsic maintained her position, but only due to the presence and active operations of the international forces. However, the involvement of SFOR make Karadzic’s camp even more popular in the society. On 13 and 14 September in Bosnia the elections to local councils were held. And again there were won by ethnic and nationalistic parties. Only in Srebrenica, Drvar and Mostar, where the refuges were allowed to vote, won the parties of the ethnic minorities. That had complicated the situation additionally. 145 On 21 September the parliamentary elections took place in Serbia. The winner was again Milosevic’s party, next to Seselja’s nationalists. Milosevic couldn’t be the Serbian president for the third time, so he became the president of Yugoslavia. His first step was achieving an agreement between Serbian leaders in Bosnia – Krajsnik, Karadzic on one side and Ms Plavsic on another one. Actually, Plavsic’s opponents had no choice facing alternatively the intervention of SFOR. However, the results of parliamentary elections in the Serb Republic in Bosnia, won by the nationalists were an unpleasant surprise for the West.
January 1998 was a crucial moment for the whole Balkans. On 15 January Croatia took control over western Slavonia with Vucovar. That meant that Serbs and Croatians had no longer conflict and could even cooperate. Moreover, in Serbia and Yugoslavia the chaos “at the top” finished. The elections decided that new president would be Milan Milutinovic, supported by Milosevic. The order within Serbian and Yugoslavian authorities seemed necessary in the face of two new circumstances. Firstly, in Kosovo Albanian guerrillas started an open conflict with the Yugoslavian army and the police. Secondly, the power in Montenegro was taken over by president Milo Djukanovic, Milosevic’s opponent and supporter the confederational concept of Yugoslavia. Therefore Milosevic facing that two serious internal problems was forced to make concessions in Bosnia. 146 Meanwhile in Bosnia the Serbs stayed in deadlock, not able to choose the government after the elections. Finally after the treat of UN representative Westendorp that they would be given the head by force they constructed a government, of course - to the wish of the West - supported by Biljana Plavsic’s party. As a Prime Minster Milorad Dodik was appointed. He was rather “west-orientated” and willing to implement decisions of the Dayton Treaty, to expel war criminals and to get the power back from Karadzic’s group. Moreover, he moved the Serbian capital to Banja Luka and started cooperation with Muslims. 147 148 Westendorp attempted also to unify the whole Bosnia. He insisted on acceptance of a common flag, one passport, a single currency. He hoped to weaken the nationalistic movements in perspective of parliamentary and presidential elections in September. However, his affords turned out to be vain. The September voting was won by ethnic parties again. That result met a high dissatisfaction of Westendorp and he even threatened to take the power by himself on UN behalf. Indeed he cut off a part of Serbian territory and gave it under UN control. That decision caused serious protests of the Serb society, a resignation of Dodik’s cabinet and a demission of the president – nationalist Poplasen. Eventually, using SFOR forces Westendorp bring order to the republic. Dodik came back to his duties but the presidential position remained empty. Later on, the tension also arose after arrests of Serb general Momir Talic and a political leader Krajsnik by international forces. 149 Summing up the year 1999 in Bosnia, the country was still in a deep crises, the refuges had not come back yet and none of the ethnic groups supported the unification process. Despite the removal of Karadzic’s group from the political stage, both in Serb republic and in other regions the national parties were the leaders. In that situation the integration of the whole territory seemed impossible. Moreover, Serbs and Croats were willing to connect their territories with homelands150, and both of them, as well as Muslims, remembered about their lands lost for other fighting parties. The next actual problem was also a dynamic and radical Islamic movement in Bosnia. Meanwhile due to American help the Bosnian Muslims possessed the most powerful army in the republic. All of that might lead to possible future conflicts. KOSOVO The most recent military conflict on the Balkans was a war in Kosovo. But to understand that war, one must look back into the history. In the 14th century Kosovo was the center of the Serbian empire and site of its most sacred churches and monasteries. In 1389, the Serbs lost the land to the Ottoman Turks in a decisive battle fought in Kosovo Polje. Over the next 500 years, neighboring Albanians continued to leave their homeland to settle in the region. By the time the Serbs reclaimed Kosovo in the Balkans Wars of 1912 to 1913, ethnic Albanians made up a significant portion of the population. They became a majority by the 1950s as their birth rate boomed and Serbs continued to migrate north. In the 90’s 1.8 million ethnic Albanians outnumber Serbs in Kosovo nine times – a fact that combined with events of recent history compel ethnic Albanians to proclaim the land theirs. 151 Although Kosovo was granted self-rule since Tito and the Communists founded the Yugoslavian federation in 1945, the constitutional revision gave ethnic Albanians in Kosovo control over local affairs and the Albanian language equal footing with Serbo-Croatian. But Tito's death in 1980 offered opportunity to Slobodan Milosevic, then a rising politician who became leader of the Serbian communist party in 1986. Capitalizing on the Serbian resentment toward ethnic Albanians and Tito, Milosevic used the Kosovo issue to stir nationalism. In rallies, he exhorted Serbs to fight for the province that he declared they would win back. 152 153 When Milosevic became president in 1989, he stripped Kosovo's autonomy, and later forced Albanians from their state jobs, shut down their media and suppressed the Albanian language. He also dismantled the legislative assembly after ethnic Albanian legislators declared independence. 154 In the early 90’s Belgrade “forgot” about the province as the federation started to break up. The Albanian leaders took advantage of such situation and created an underground state with the whole administration. The ethnic majority operated a parallel government which staged its own elections. The government collected money to fund social services from Albanians in Kosovo, Albania and abroad. Ethnic Albanians also ran their own schools and universities and got their news from Albanian-language sources; simultaneously Serbians relied on Serbian TV and Belgrade newspapers. 155 156 The Albanian political leader was Ibrahim Rugova, a writer and political intellectual voted "president" during the 1992 shadow government elections. However, his nonviolent stance against Serbian rule irritated the formation of an armed guerrilla group who finally decided to take matters into their own hands. 157 In 1996, the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA, established around 1991) claimed responsibility for a series of violent attacks and started warfare with Serbian troops, which soon forced thousands of Albanians to flee into neighboring Albania. By February 1998, a new Serbia military offensive against the separatists was launched during which many civilians suffered from the ethnic cleansings.158 In the months following Milosevic's renewed attacks, the Contact Group responsible for negotiating peace in the Balkans leveled sanctions against Yugoslavia. However, the Kosovo turmoil revealed staunch political differences among members of the international community. The USA and Western allies condemned repression against ethnic Albanians, but did not support the KLA's aspirations of autonomy; the Albanians supported a NATO attack and an autonomous Kosovo. Russia, which shares religious and cultural ties to the Serbs, opposed NATO intervention and saw the conflict as Yugoslavia's affair. Meanwhile, the West, including the Clinton administration, came under fire for inaction and failing to carry out threats of military action against Milosevic. 159 After peace negotiations, sanctions, and the threat of NATO military intervention failed to halt the conflict, NATO renewed its threat of air strikes in October 1998, after reports that the massacre of ethnic Albanian civilians was committed by Serbian troops. On 13 October Milosevic and US envoy Richard Holbrooke agreed to a cease-fire that required partially withdrawing government forces, and allowing 2,000 inspectors under the aegis of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to monitor the cease-fire and activities of both sides. The truce temporarily ended the eight-month offensive that killed more than 1,000 people and left over 125,000 homeless. Milosevic refused a request for an investigation into the killings of civilians by the UN war crimes tribunal. His hard-line stance against pleas to end the fighting revived the threat of NATO air strikes. 160 161 Fearing that the civil war in Kosovo could provoke a wider Balkans war that could destabilize neighboring Albania and Macedonia, which in turn may pull in Turkey and Greece, Western allies pushed Serbian officials and ethnic Albanian representatives to meet for peace talks in Rambouillet, France. After negotiations the ethnic Albanians signed the peace accord but Milosevic rejected to do that because he opposed a provision allowing for peacekeeping troops in Yugoslavia.162 As a result of Milosevic's new offensive launched in March 1999 against Kosovo Albanians, and his rejection of peacekeeping troops as outlined in the peace accord, NATO approved punitive air strikes against Yugoslavia. Faced with its gravest challenge since World War II, on 24 March the Alliance mounted its first attack against a sovereign nation in its 50-year history. 163 164 NATO bombs pummeled Serbia and Kosovo for 78 days, while on the ground, Yugoslav troops began expelling ethnic Albanians from the region into neighboring countries. Approximately 860,000 fled their homeland to refugee camps in neighboring Albania and Macedonia. 165 Finally, Yugoslavian representatives met with NATO military commanders in Macedonia to work out a peace plan that would halt NATO strikes and allow the safe return of the refugees. On 9 June Yugoslavia signed an agreement that allowed for the withdrawal of their forces from Kosovo and the implementation of a 50,000-member international peacekeeping force into the Serbian province. The contingent, known as KFOR, was expected to stabilize the region and made possible a massive relief effort planned by the European Union, the United States and other countries. 166 But in the very beginning of KFOR presence in Kosovo it was almost helpless to secure the Serbs from the Albans taking a bloody revenge on them. Even in 2000 the situation was very unstable, KFOR hadn’t still managed to disarm KLA and the Serbs continued to be attacked by the Albanians.
Summing up, it can be surely said that the Balkan tragedy of the 90’s was the largest and the most bloody conflict in Europe after World War II and it has highly influenced the situation of the whole Europe. The war made the European leaders aware that the existing security mechanisms are highly ineffective and a new European defence and foreign policy is a necessity. Moreover, the conflict deeply shocked the society of Europe because of such an inhuman brutality at the turn of the 20th and 21st century. It also indicated the power of the media, which created some widely believed myths on the Balkan war, like the overestimated number of victims, Serbs seen as the only guilty of mass crimes, solely negative opinion on international leaders – their inactivity.167 The stability of the situation on the Balkans remains highly doubtful. The presented picture of Bosnia after the war indicate that nationalistic moods are still alive and what’s more very danger. Only the countries which are rather ethnically uniform, like Croatia or Slovenia are developing peacefully. Some future problems may result also from the strong position of KLA and the situation of Albanians (Kosovo, Macedonia). Moreover, the stabilization is needed in the New Yugoslavia itself. Milosevic has been caught and is being charged for the crimes against humanity in front of the International Court of Justice in the Hague. However, many war criminals, not only Serbs, are still free. Despite breaking with Milosevic’s regime the nationalists in Serbia are still powerful and willing to influence the political stage (the recent assassination of Prime Minister Dzindzic). Furthermore the authorities of Montenegro used to consider the possibility of separation from Serbia. The autonomy has become also a core aim of the Hungarian from Vojvodiana and Muslims from Sangacu. In that situation no detail forecasts for the region are possible but most probably the peace will eventually visit those lands and in a long period its citizens will also profit from the benefits of the European Integration. One should hope this positive scenario come true because the instability on the Balkans for ages has influenced negatively not only that very region. Appendix: Map 1: Ethnic groups, Map 2: 1815 to 1839: After the Congress of Vienna, Map 3: 1914: Eve of the First World War, Map 4: Between the Two World Wars, Map 5: Nov. 1942: Height of Axis Occupation, Map 6: 1945 to 1990: Cold War Stability, Map 7: 1991 to 1995: Open Warfare, Map 8: Ethnic groups according to the Dayton agreement, Map 9: International forces in Bosnia, Map 10: Balkan states nowadays
Source: http://www.nytimes.com/specials/bosnia/context/index.html & http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/balkans/contents.htm |
