An Analysis of the Precursor Measurements of Mars Needed to Reduce the Risk of the First Human Mission to Mars

It was not true for the Moon, but many have concluded that it is inconceivable that humans would land in a place where landers and rovers have never been.  As shown in Table 5, the MHP SSG has agreed with this, and has called for at least one measurement (#1Cb) to be done specifically at the human landing site. Although many useful measurements could be made by this penultimate lander mission, note that if site selection happens late in the process, the information may arrive too late to influence mission engineering. In addition, although this would undoubtedly be a subject of future discussion, we did not conclude that sample return from the human landing site is required.

6. 
   Conclusions
   
   1. 
      Summary of recommendations for further studies.
      

1. 
   The MHP SSG recommends definition of a baseline mission architecture for the first human mission to Mars.
   

• 
  We need a more complete understanding of possible engineering approaches to mitigating the risks described in this paper, and their effects on cost, risk, and performance.
  

2. 
   We recommend that a long-lead multi-disciplinary advance planning team be assembled to evaluate and prioritize possible objectives for the first human mission. We recognize that this would evolve many times between now and the time the mission actually flies, but for planning purposes it is helpful to have a starting point from which incremental improvements can be made.
   

• 
  Important distinctions need to be made between what reduces mission risk and also enhances probability of meeting or exceeding all mission goals, versus what needs to be done to ensure the safety of astronauts and meeting minimum mission success criteria.
  

3. 
   We recommend that the above baseline mission be evaluated in the following ways:
   

• 
  Establish a cost model, so that opportunities to use precursor investments to achieve cost savings can be identified
  
• 
  Establish a quantitative probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model, which can be used as a starting point for a systematic, comprehensive risk reduction strategy.
  
• 
  Evaluate opportunities for performance enhancement with minimal incremental cost or risk.
  

2. 
   Summary of the relationship of principal findings of MEPAG [2001], NRC [2002], and this study. (Numbers to the left of the investigation statements are relative priority).
   

7. 
   Acknowledgements
   

8. 
   References
   

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