Clip meeting February 13, 2009

1. 
   Note – CLIP writing workshop will be next Wednesday, Feb. 18, starting at 9:00. Bryan and Brent will be coming here, Dong Yun can participate in the morning via Skpe.
   

2. 
   See below the revised paper list. Let’s concentrate on the project-wide papers during the workshop.
   

3. 
   Alternative/ additional LUC model – Qi and Jenni van Ravensway
   
   1. 
      Take ClipCover as starting point. Use Gopal’s simulations of maize & beans from different climate scenarios.
      
      1. 
         Will prepare several scenarios based on various “rules”. We will look at the expert results to identify “rules” of how/ where people will expand & contract cropping.
         
      2. 
         Then, we will compare the scenarios, including what the experts said where areas will expand/ contract.
         
      3. 
         Examples of rules –
         
         1. 
            Use threshold of 500 kg/ha below which no cropping.
            
         2. 
            urban density & growth patterns
            
         3. 
            others
            
      4. 
         identify transition or sensitive area – zone of expansion & contraction zone where competition over water & grazing/ cropping land is occurring, and where economics, land tenure & policies would affect what happens.
         
      5. 
         Later-- spatial regression approach to compare with Bryan’s LTM – use roads, urban centers, yields etc. to locate changes in LU. Do scenarios based on different policies, rates of urbanization or other human decisions.
         

4. 
   Dong Yun – drought declining along coast. She will ask Sarah for new Kenya station data
   

* Lead on technical part but not whole paper

Green shaded: promised to NSF; can’t be started yet

Yellow shaded: promised to NSF, can be started now