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U. S. Department of Education Office of Planning, Evaluation and Policy Development


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discussion


The national evaluation of Upward Bound began in 1991. Study enrollment occurred from 1992 to 1994 and follow-up surveys and administrative records tracked student progress through high school and seven to nine years after expected high school graduation. Several previous reports document the operations of Upward Bound projects (Moore 1997), the short-term impacts on high school experiences (Myers and Schirm 1999), and final impacts on high school outcomes and short-term impacts on postsecondary experiences (Myers et al. 2004). These previous reports, together with this final impact report on postsecondary outcomes, highlight several important considerations for understanding the evaluation study results.

Upward Bound Attracts Mostly Students Who Are Sufficiently Able and Motivated to Pursue Postsecondary Education

Nationwide, among all students in eighth grade in 1988, approximately 76 percent reported enrollment in postsecondary education within about eight years after high school (Ingels et al. 2002). Among disadvantaged students, the reported national postsecondary enrollment rate was much lower—less than 60 percent for students who were in the lowest quartile of socioeconomic status or whose parents did not attend college. In comparison, survey data from this evaluation reveal that 81 percent of Upward Bound applicants assigned to the control group enrolled in postsecondary education within seven to nine years after high school. Thus, even without the opportunity to participate in Upward Bound, Upward Bound applicants—who are disadvantaged students—reported attending postsecondary institutions at a rate higher than the national average, and at a much higher rate than the average disadvantaged student. These results suggest a limited opportunity for Upward Bound to dramatically increase enrollment rates.



Participants in Upward Bound Receive an Intensive Set of Precollege Services and Have Positive Educational Outcomes

Offering Upward Bound increases both the percentage of youth receiving services and the intensity of services received. More than 80 percent of the treatment group members received Upward Bound services; almost 90 percent of treatment group members received a high school diploma; and roughly 80 percent enrolled in some type of postsecondary program, with over half attending a four-year college or university.



Upward Bound Operates in an Environment in Which Other Precollege Services Are Also Available to Students

Many Upward Bound programs operate in environments in which the type of students who are eligible and apply for Upward Bound may also participate in other college programs. Survey data indicate that nearly half of control group members reported participating in some kind of supplemental services in high school. In particular, 11 percent of control group members reported participating in an Upward Bound Math-Science program (not part of the random assignment evaluation) and nine 9 reported participating in Talent Search, a less intensive precollege program for disadvantaged high school students. The availability of other precollege services might limit the effects of Upward Bound if such services affect educational outcomes.


looking ahead


National statistics continue to show substantial disparities in the postsecondary enrollment and completion rates between more and less advantaged groups. Longitudinal data from the eighth-grade cohort from the National Education Longitudinal Study show that only 52 percent of students in the lowest socioeconomic status (SES) quartile reported some postsecondary attendance by eight years after expected high school education, compared with 76 percent for the cohort as a whole (Ingels et al. 2002). The percentage obtaining a B.A. degree eight years after scheduled high school graduation was 7 percent for the lowest SES quartile, compared with 26 percent for the cohort.

The national Upward Bound evaluation highlights the challenges faced by programs aiming to reduce these disparities in postsecondary enrollment and completion between more and less advantaged groups of high school students. Disadvantaged students who seek out intensive programs like Upward Bound represent a strongly motivated segment of the target population. As a result, they are able to access needed services, graduate from high school, enroll in postsecondary institutions, and complete postsecondary education at rates consistent with the youth population as a whole. To address the long-standing inequality in postsecondary enrollment and completion rates may therefore require program strategies that reach and impact those less motivated students who have not accessed the Upward Bound or other precollege services available in their communities.




I. Introduction

A. Context and Purpose of Upward Bound


Enrolling in college and completing a degree are significant milestones for many young adults. Moreover, the importance of completing a college degree for success in the labor market is well-documented. For full-time workers ages 25 to 34, median earnings are 64 percent higher for men with bachelor’s degrees than for men with high school diplomas, and 68 percent higher for women with bachelor’s degrees than for women with high school diplomas (U.S. Department of Education 2007). These differences increase with age, as earnings rise more rapidly with work experience among college-educated workers than among workers without a college degree. In addition to the economic benefits of a college education, individuals who complete college tend to have a greater civic orientation and are more likely to vote and assume leadership roles in their communities (Astin 1993; Bowen and Bok 1998).

Although completion of a college education is important from the perspective of both the individual and society, many potential college students lack the skills or resources needed to enter college or complete a college degree. Often, those who face the greatest barriers to pursuing a college education are young adults from low-income families and families in which neither parent completed college; many of these students are members of racial and ethnic minorities (U.S. Department of Education 2001). These students may also face barriers to enrolling in college and completing a degree due to limited high school academic preparation, which is frequently linked to family socioeconomic status, race, and ethnicity (see, for example, Coleman et al. 1966; Jencks et al. 1972; Mosteller and Moynihan 1972; Congressional Budget Office 1987; Jacobson et al. 2001; St. John et al. 2002; Avery and Kane 2004).

Low-income students are less likely than middle- and upper-income students to earn high school diplomas and attend and complete college. In 2004, only 50 percent of high school graduates who came from families in the bottom 20 percent of family incomes enrolled in college immediately after completing high school. In contrast, 64 percent of students from middle-income families and 80 percent of students from families in the top 20 percent of family incomes enrolled immediately after high school (U.S. Department of Education 2006). These differential outcomes are attributable to several factors present in low-income families and their communities.

Low-income students are concentrated in communities with high-poverty high schools. Studies have shown that schools with a high percentage of low-income children have lower quality teachers, which is associated with lower achievement on state assessment tests and tests of college readiness, controlling for high school course-taking (Peske and Haycock 2006). Despite progress in closing the gap in achievement test scores between disadvantaged and more advantaged students, large differences remain. For example, on achievement tests reported by the National Assessment of Educational Progress, about 37 percent of white eighth-grade students were classified as proficient in mathematics in 2005, as compared with 8 percent of African American eighth-graders (U.S. Department of Education 2005a, Table A-9). A similar gap is seen in reading, with about 37 percent of white eighth-graders and 11 percent of African American eighth-graders classified as proficient (U.S. Department of Education 2005b, Table A-9). Furthermore, data from the National Education Longitudinal Study (1988–94) suggest that only half of low-income high school graduates are academically prepared to attend four-year colleges or universities (U.S. Department of Education 1997, Table 15).

Students at high-poverty high schools also experience higher dropout rates than similar students at middle- and upper-income high schools, reducing the likelihood of high school completion and postsecondary enrollment. Attending a high-poverty high school is particularly deleterious for high school completion among African Americans (Swanson 2004; Balfanz and Legters 2004).

Most low-income students do not have a parent who has a college degree, which presents an informational barrier for students in terms of taking the courses in high school that would prepare them for college, accessing financial aid, and navigating the college admissions process. The importance of parents as models and information sources is suggested by the finding that 82 percent of students whose parents had a bachelor’s degree enrolled in college immediately after high school, compared with 54 percent of students whose parents had only a high school diploma (U.S. Department of Education 2001). Other studies have shown that while low-income students may aspire to higher education, they find the college admissions process (test-taking, financial aid application, and college application) difficult to navigate, and they are more likely to report that a lack of resources and someone to advise them are barriers to enrolling in college (St. John et al. 2002; Avery and Kane 2004).

Finally, low-income students do not take full advantage of financial aid programs. While differences in high school curricula, parents’ education, and test scores partly explain the gap in enrollment rates, differences in financial resources available to students continue to play an important role (Kane 1999). A study by the American Council on Education showed that 20 to 30 percent of college-going students with a family income below $40,000 (thus likely to be eligible for federal financial aid) did not apply in 2000 (King 2004).

Since the War on Poverty started in the 1960s, many federal, state, community, and private initiatives have been undertaken to alleviate some of the barriers to attending college and completing a degree faced by low-income, first-generation college students and minority students (see, for example, Adelman 2000; Swail and Perna 2000; James, Jurich, and Estes 2001). Programs range from Equity 2000, Advancement Via Individual Determination (AVID), and Gaining Early Awareness and Readiness for Undergraduate Programs (GEAR UP)—which are integrated with the regular high school or middle school experiences—to programs that more often supplement school experiences, such as Upward Bound, Talent Search, and I Have a Dream. In the years after this evaluation’s sample attended Upward Bound, additional programs began providing supplemental services, including College Opportunity and Career Help (COACH), Roads to Success, and the College Advising Corps. Because few of these programs have been subjected to rigorous evaluation, the effectiveness of these approaches is generally unknown; however, evaluations of postsecondary transition programs such as Talent Search and COACH indicate that providing low-income students with information and inspiration at the right time can significantly increase college enrollment rates (Constantine et al. 2006; Avery and Kane 2004).

Upward Bound is one of the largest and longest-running federal precollege programs for economically disadvantaged students. Within Upward Bound, three programs operate: regular Upward Bound, Veterans Upward Bound, and Upward Bound Math-Science. In 2006, 761 regular Upward Bound projects served 56,430 students, 39 Veterans Upward Bound projects served 4,909 participants, and 125 Upward Bound Math-Science projects served 6,707 students. This report pertains to the regular Upward Bound program.

Upward Bound was “designed to generate skills and motivation necessary for success in education beyond high school among young people from low-income backgrounds and inadequate secondary school preparation” (Public Law 90-222, Dec. 23, 1967). Federal policy requires that two-thirds of students in each Upward Bound project must be both low-income (family income under 150 percent of the poverty line) and potential first-generation college students (from families in which neither parent holds a bachelor’s degree). The remaining one-third of students must qualify either as low-income or potential first-generation college students. In FY 2006, with federal funds of more than $267 million, the average cost per student for the regular Upward Bound program totaled about $4,725 per year and covered a variety of services. This may be equivalent to about half of the amount of money spent by an average school district on a student per year, based on national per pupil expenditures of $8,468 in 2002–03


(U.S. Department of Education 2006, Table 166).

Upward Bound is an intensive program: during the academic year, participants engage in activities on a regular basis, often weekly; during the summer, participants attend a full-day academic program that generally lasts for about six weeks. Students typically enter Upward Bound early in high school and are encouraged to participate through the summer following graduation. In the evaluation sample, 15 percent applied for Upward Bound before ninth grade, 39 percent applied during ninth grade or the summer before tenth grade, 35 percent applied during tenth grade or the summer before eleventh grade, and the remaining 11 percent applied later. Most Upward Bound projects emphasize the academic preparation needed for attending and completing college. They offer:



  • Academic courses and activities. A major focus of program activities is to help students acquire academic proficiency in challenging college preparatory courses. Projects often require students to take Upward Bound courses during both the summer and the school year. In addition, almost all projects provide students with tutoring for high school course work and help participants prepare for college entrance examinations.

  • Nonacademic services. Projects complement their academic offerings with a wide range of activities. For example, students may attend plays, visit museums, tour college campuses, and learn about and apply for financial aid.

In December 1991, the U.S. Department of Education (ED) initiated a rigorous, longitudinal evaluation conducted by Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. (MPR), and its subcontractors, Educational Testing Service, Westat, Decision Information Resources, and Branch Associates, to determine whether Upward Bound enables students to perform better in high school and subsequently to enter and complete college at higher rates than without the program. This report presents findings about the effect of the regular Upward Bound program on eligible applicants’ postsecondary experiences approximately seven to nine years after the applicants’ scheduled high school graduation.

Earlier reports from the evaluation have documented the operations of Upward Bound projects (Moore 1997), the characteristics of students served by Upward Bound projects (Myers and Schirm 1997), the program’s short-term effects on eligible applicants’ high school experiences (Myers and Schirm 1999), and the program’s ultimate effects on eligible applicants’ high school experiences and short-term effects on applicants’ postsecondary experiences (Myers et al. 2004). Myers et al. (2004) used data collected approximately three years after most individuals in the evaluation were scheduled to graduate from high school. The present report updates those findings on Upward Bound’s effects on postsecondary enrollment by using data collected approximately seven to nine years after most individuals in the study were scheduled to graduate from high school. This report also presents the first estimates of Upward Bound’s effects on postsecondary completion.

The remainder of this chapter summarizes the context for interpreting program effects and the previous findings from the evaluation, and is followed by a description of the evaluation design in Chapter II. Chapter III presents estimates of Upward Bound’s effects on postsecondary enrollment and completion for the average eligible applicant, followed by estimates for certain subgroups in Chapter IV. Chapter V presents estimates indicating how the effects of Upward Bound vary with the amount of participation in the program. Finally, several appendixes present details concerning the evaluation and the data analyses.

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