U. S. Department of Education Office of Planning, Evaluation and Policy Development
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TABLESTable Page I.1 Receipt of Supplemental Services 9 I.2 Receipt of Upward Bound and Other Supplemental Services 10 I.3 Unweighted Rates of Participation in Upward Bound Among Treatment Group Members 15 II.1 Response Rates 25 II.2 Control Variables Included in the Regression Models 31 II.3 Sample Size in Applicant Characteristic Subgroups by Treatment Status 32 II.4 Sample Size in Project Characteristic Subgroups by Treatment Status 34 III.1 Impact of Upward Bound on Postsecondary Outcomes (ITT) 41 III.2 Impact of Upward Bound on Postsecondary Outcomes (CACE) 45 III.3 Illustrative Impact Estimates from Sensitivity Analyses 52 IV.1 Impact of Upward Bound on Postsecondary Outcomes by Students’ Grade
IV.2 Impact of Upward Bound on Postsecondary Outcomes by Students’ Educational Expectations (ITT) 59 IV.3 Impact of Upward Bound on Postsecondary Outcomes by Students’ Ninth-Grade Math Class (ITT) 62 IV.4 Impact of Upward Bound on Postsecondary Outcomes by Students’ Ninth-Grade GPA (ITT) 64 V.1 Duration of Upward Bound Participation and Completion Rates, Excluding No-Shows 69 V.2 Quasi-Experimental Impact of an Additional Year of Upward Bound on Postsecondary Outcomes 72 V.3 Quasi-Experimental Impact of Upward Bound Completion on Postsecondary Outcomes 73 FIGURESFigure Page I.1 Conceptual Framework for the Evaluation 7 Executive SummaryPolicymakers have long been concerned about the disparities in college attendance between more and less advantaged groups of high school students. Data from the 1990s indicate that students from low-income families were less than half as likely to attend a four-year college or university as students from high-income families. This difference is not surprising given disparities in financial resources and college preparation between high- and low-income high school students. While the vast majority of high-income high school graduates are qualified to attend a four-year college—based on grades and test scores—only half of low-income students have adequate qualifications (U.S. Department of Education 1997), and low-income students face greater financial barriers to college attendance (Kane 1999). Upward Bound is one of the largest and longest-running federal programs designed to help disadvantaged students prepare for, enter, and succeed in college.1 Upward Bound is “designed to generate skills and motivation necessary for success in education beyond high school among young people from low-income backgrounds and inadequate secondary school preparation” (Public Law 90-222, Dec 23, 1967). Including the grants funded under the College Cost Reduction and Access Act of 2007, 971 grants were awarded for fiscal year 2007 to serve over 65,000 students in the regular Upward Bound program. The majority of Upward Bound projects are hosted by colleges and universities. According to the program’s regulations, at least two-thirds of each project’s participants must be both low-income and potential first-generation college students. Students typically enter Upward Bound while in ninth or tenth grade or the summer prior to those grades. Although students may participate in Upward Bound through the summer following twelfth grade (for three to four years total), participants typically remain in Upward Bound for about 20 months (Myers et al. 2004). Projects provide students with a variety of services, including instruction, tutoring, and counseling. In addition to regularly scheduled meetings throughout the school year, projects offer an intensive instructional program that meets daily for about six weeks during the summer. In 1991, the Department of Education launched the National Evaluation of Upward Bound. Conducted by Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. (MPR), the evaluation has included an implementation study—to assess how the program is implemented—and a longitudinal impact study. The impact study was based on a random assignment design implemented in a nationally representative sample of 67 Upward Bound projects hosted by two- and four-year colleges and universities. From 1992 to 1994, eligible applicants to these projects were enrolled in the study. About 1,500 students were randomly assigned to the evaluation’s treatment group and allowed to participate in Upward Bound, and about 1,300 students were randomly assigned to the control group. Comparing the experiences of treatment group members with the experiences of control group members, the evaluation has assessed the effects of the opportunity to participate in regular Upward Bound on high school and postsecondary outcomes. From 1992 to 1994, a baseline survey collected information on students who applied to Upward Bound projects in the study. Follow-up surveys of all treatment and control group members were conducted in 1994–95, 1996– 97, 199–99, 2001–02, and 2003–04, and high school and postsecondary transcripts were collected after each survey. Upward Bound project staff reported on the participation of students in the program. In addition to the survey, transcript, and participation data that were collected specifically for the evaluation, data from two administrative sources—the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) and the federal Student Aid (FSA) records—were used in the evaluation. This report is the last in a series of study reports from the Upward Bound evaluation. It analyzes data from the final round of data collection as well as administrative records, and provides the national evaluation’s first estimates of the effects of Upward Bound on postsecondary completion. It also updates previous estimates of the program’s effects on other postsecondary outcomes. The survey data were collected between 2003 and 2004, approximately seven to nine years after sample members were scheduled to graduate from high school. Other sources of data from the evaluation—previous surveys, high school and postsecondary transcripts, and data on Upward Bound participation provided by program staff—have also informed the findings. The research questions addressed in this report are:
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