Turkey Green Growth Policy Paper: Towards a Greener Economy
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4. Strategic Sectors: Overview and Greening Potential4.1 OverviewThe present Chapter summarizes the main findings from rapid sector assessments and focus group meetings for the six industrial manufacturing sectors (automotive, construction, electronics, iron and steel, machine industry, and white goods) considered strategic and agriculture. The strategic importance of these sectors for the present analysis stems from the fact that: (a) they are highlighted as key drivers of future growth in Turkey’s 9th Development Plan (2007-2013); (b) each sector is subject to compliance with key applicable EU Environmental Acquis Directives--since these are a major driving force for sector reform and transformation, and entail potentially significant public and private sector investments in both the short and longer term; (c) they are viewed as having a large potential for ‘greening’ in terms of increasing input efficiency and lowering pollution intensity and each sector has a strategy from which to draw information for analytical purposes. While by no means a comprehensive list, Table 4.1 suggests that the selected subsectors comprise from 35-43% of total manufacturing assets, production, employment, imports and exports, and over 60% of all research and development. Table 4.1 Selected Sub-Sectors of Manufacturing, 2009
Source: Turkish Industrial Strategy Document 2011-2014 – Towards EU Membership, Ministry of Industry and Trade (2010). 1 – Includes Office Machinery and Computers; Radio, Television and Communication Equipment and Apparatus; Electrical Machinery and Apparatus, N.E.C.; Medical, Precision and Optical Instruments, Watches and Clocks. 2 – White goods are considered a subsector of the Machine industry according to the Classification of Economic Activities in the European Communities (NACE). The selected sectors are also significant in terms of their relative pollution and input efficiency profiles. Basic metals (which include iron and steel) are a top emitter of waste, hazardous waste, and wastewater, as well as a top user of water and energy consumption. The automotive, machinery (plus white goods) and electrical and electronics subsectors also fall within the top 10 across most categories.19 Agriculture is the one non-manufacturing sector initially chosen owing to its important role in the economy and its potential for ‘greening.’ While the rapid sector assessments provide a first useful gauge of Turkey’s greening potential at the sector level, a more detailed technical assessment of abatement costs and possibilities would be desirable. Such an assessment, as carried out for carbon emission mitigation technologies by McKinsey (2008), would allow more accurate predictions of the private benefits of investments in abatement and consequently allow public policy to be calibrated to leverage private sector reactions through a combination of price and other incentives. This point is further elaborated in Chapter 6. 4.2 AutomotiveSituation analysis In 2009, global production of motor vehicles was 61.7 million, of which 48 million vehicles were passenger cars and 13.7 million were commercial vehicles. Turkey remains one of the twenty largest vehicle producers, although its production fell below a million units in 2009. The industry experienced strong growth over the past five years, mostly in passenger cars, although growth ceased in the last quarter of 2008, and an overall fall in production was attributed to the global recession in 2009. Turkey ranks 17th globally in automotive production, and 7th in Europe. The Turkish automotive industry is one of the economy’s pioneering and most dynamic sectors. It is highly international, with around 76 percent of Turkish vehicle production in 2009 and 68 percent in 2010 being exported, mainly to Europe. Meanwhile, around 56 percent of Turkey’s 2009 motor vehicle sales were imported. This growth of both exports and imports occurred as the major global manufacturers integrated their Turkish plants into their global production planning. Increasingly, specific models are produced in Turkey for global or regional sales, while vehicles that are not produced locally are imported. Turkey’s inclusion in this type of global production planning is made possible by the Customs Union Agreement with the EU, in operation since 1996. There are currently 15 passenger and commercial vehicle manufacturers in the country, in addition to seven tractor manufacturers. The Automotive Manufacturers Association (Turkish: 'Otomotiv Sanayicileri Dernegi') is a Turkish industry trade group, which represents the Turkish automotive industry. The total capacity of the OSD members (15 manufacturers including two tractor manufacturers) amounts to 1,561,155 vehicles per year as of 2010. These manufacturers, together with spare parts producers, employ more than 265,000 people, ranking in the top 10 globally. In 2010, the automobile industry exported 70% of the 1.1 million vehicles produced in Turkey. At the same time, the total export value of the automotive industry reached US$ 16 billion, one third of which consisted of parts and components. Box 4.1 With some € 20 billion annually, the automobile industry is the largest private investor in R&D in Europe (4% of the industry’s annual turnover), a significant part of which is devoted to technologies to reduce GHG emissions, improving engine efficiency and performance, with another part devoted to vehicle safety. Source: European Commission The automotive sector is very dynamic, with an average annual growth rate of 4.2% from 2000 to 2010, but it is highly dependent on the EU countries for which 70% of the exports are destined. However, the strong domestic market and the steady increase in Research & Development activities in the sector bode well for continued sector growth, as the industry plans to invest (over the medium term) about US$ 2 billion for technology renewal, capacity increase (expected to reach 1.5 million vehicles by 2015), and new model development. By the end of 2010, there were 16 supply companies and 11 vehicle companies running 37 R&D centers which employ 4.000 workers20. In addition, specialized training allows the industry to get needed skills in Turkey (e.g., recently established automotive vocational high school). Moreover, Turkish automotive companies have been integrated into the European Network Exchange (ENX) for data transfer. This system also enables Turkish suppliers to outfit European Automotive manufacturers. Box 4.2 European automotive environmental footprint From 2005-2009, the European automobile association claims that significant progress has been achieved all while vehicle prices have declined, as indicated by the following indicators (on a per vehicle basis):
Source: ACEA (2009) In terms of environmental footprint, over its production and service life stages, the automotive industry is a major contributor to air pollution (e.g., volatile organic compounds (VOC) and CO2 emissions), solid waste (e.g., packaging, metal scrap, parts and consumables), hazardous waste (e.g., paint sludge, oils, batteries, electronics), and waste water (e.g., oils and chemical discharges, especially from uncontrolled/unregistered repair shops). However, the automotive industry in Turkey is on par with its European counterparts in terms of environmental improvements (Box 4.2) which are strongly linked with increases in productivity and product quality. Sector potential The automotive industry is implementing an ambitious greening program that includes: (a) energy efficiency (e.g., insulation, co-generation, and reuse of heat from boilers, and gradually switching to renewable energy); (b) adoption of improved vehicle and motor technologies (e.g., lighter body material, tire performance, direct fuel injection, multi-fuel and hybrid fuel vehicles, hybrid cars, EU vehicle emissions standards); and (c) improved waste management (including separation and recycling) and physical-chemical water treatment plants in all production facilities. Moreover, measures are being introduced to reduce the environmental impact of the service life of vehicles (waste management during maintenance and repair, and end-of-life scrap recycling), and more specifically towards compliance with the EU End-of-Life Vehicle Directive (ELV 2000/53/EC) which requires EU Member States to ensure that a minimum of 85% of vehicles are reused or recovered (including energy recovery) by 2015. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||