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Producer price index manufacturing (ppi-m) 3rd Quarter 2009


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PRODUCER PRICE INDEX - MANUFACTURING (PPI-M)

3rd Quarter 2009
1. Introduction

The Producer Price Index (PPI-M) measures changes in the effective prices received by producers of the Manufacturing sector (excluding establishments formerly operating with Export Enterprise Certificate) for that part of their output, which is sold on the domestic market. It reflects the price trends of a constant basket of goods, representative of the output of these manufacturing industries.

This issue of the "Economic and Social Indicators" presents a series of PPI-M from 2003 to September 2009, broken down by 16 Divisions (2-digits level of the National Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities, NSIC) with weights based on the results of the 2002 Census of Economic Activities, and using year 2003 as base period. Indices for the Divisions 15 and 16, “Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco”, have been further subdivided by product group and are given separately in Tables 5 to 8. Tables 9(a) and 10(a) present the monthly indices as well as the quarterly and yearly averages for the manufacturing sector and the group “Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco” respectively. Comparative monthly indices for the manufacturing sector and the group “Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco” are given in tables 9(b) and 10(b) respectively. The methodology used for the calculation of the index is given in annex.

2. Producer Price Index (Year 2003 = 100)

2.1 Monthly index

The Producer Price Index, which stood at 165.7 in June 2009 increased by 1.3% to attain 167.9 in September 2009. The index increased by 1.2% in July, 0.2% in August and decreased by 0.1% in September 2009 (Table 1).

The 1.2% increase in the overall index in July was mainly due to increases in the sub-indices of “Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco” (+1.9%), “Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products” (+2.7%) and “Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products” (+0.8%). The increase in the sub-index of “Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco”, which accounts for nearly 50% of the overall weight, was due to increases in the “Production, processing and preservation of meat and meat products” (+6.2%), “Manufacture of sugar” (+18.6%) and “Manufacture of bakery products” (+1.1%), partly offset by a decrease in the “Manufacture of grain mill products” (-0.6%).

In August, the overall index increased by 0.2% due to increases in the sub-indices of “Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media” (+2.7%), “Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus” (+6.1%) and “Manufacture of textile” (+1.4%). The sub-index “Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco” remained unchanged in August.

In September, the index receded by 0.1%. This was due to decreases in “Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco” (-0.2%), “Manufacture of wood, wood products and cork except furniture” (-0.7%), partly offset by an increase in “Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus” (+7.7%). The 0.2% decrease in “Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco” was the result of a decrease in the sub-indices of “Manufacture of grain mill products” (-2.5%) and “Manufacture of vegetable and animal oils and fats” (-0.1%), partly offset by an increase in “Manufacture of other food products” (+1.0%).

The evolution of the monthly index by NSIC group for the period 2003 to 2008 is shown in Tables 2, 3, 6 and 7.



2.2 Quarterly Index

Table 4 gives the evolution of the Producer Price Index on a quarterly basis, the quarterly index being computed as the arithmetic mean of the monthly indices. The index which worked out to 166.2 in the second quarter of 2009 increased by 1.0% to reach 167.9 in the third quarter of 2009. This 1.0% increase was mainly due to increases in the sub-indices of “Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco” (+1.1%), “Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products” (+2.7%) and “Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media” (+1.8%).

Within “Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco”, “Manufacture of food products” increased by 1.3%, mostly explained by higher prices of “Manufacture of sugar” (+18.6%), “Production, processing and preservation of meat and meat products” (+3.2%), “Manufacture of bakery products” (+1.1%) whilst “ Manufacture of beverages and tobacco” increased by 0.6% due to higher prices of “Distilling, blending and bottling of spirit” (+2.4%) and “Soft drinks” (+0.2%) . Details of changes are shown in Table 8.

Compared to the corresponding quarter of 2008, the overall index for the third quarter of 2009 went down by 3.3%. This was due to decreases in the sub-indices of “Manufacture of basic metals” (-39.5%), “Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco” (-2.7%), and “Manufacture of fabricated metal products” (-3.4%), partly offset by higher prices in “Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products” (+4.5%), “Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products” (+3.5%), and “Publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media” (+1.8%). Other details of changes are shown in Table 4.

Within “Manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco”, “Manufacture of food products” declined by 5.0% while “Manufacture of beverages and tobacco” went up by 3.0%. At a more detailed level, decreases were noted in the prices of “Manufacture of grain mill products” (-34.3%), “Manufacture of vegetables and animal oils and fats” (-9.1%), “Production, processing and preservation of meat and meat products” (-4.1%), “Manufacture of prepared animal feeds” (-1.8%), and increases in the prices of “Soft drinks” (+6.4%), “Distilling, blending & bottling of spirit” (+3.8%) and “Wine” (+3.8%). Other details on changes that have occurred during that period are given in Tables 4 and 8.

Central Statistics Office.


Ministry of Finance and Economic Empowerment

PORT LOUIS


December 2009

Contact Persons:

Mrs. F. Koussa (Statistician) or Mr. G.G Chandydyal (Senior Statistical Officer)

Statistics Unit

Ministry of Industry, Science and Research

5th Floor, Air Mauritius Bldg., Port-Louis

Tel. 211 7799 Fax: 212 8429






Producer Price Index – Manufacturing (PPI-M)
Methodology for the Construction of the PPI-M


  1. Definition

The Producer Price Index (PPI-M) measures changes in the effective prices received by manufacturers for that part of their output which is sold on the domestic market. It normally refers to a family of indices which includes:




    1. Industry output prices indices

    2. Detailed commodity price indices, and,

    3. Stage-of-processing prices indices

The emphasis of the PPI program is the production of Industry output price indices which will reflect the price trends of a constant basket of goods representative of the total output of an industry. The concepts and definitions of the PPIs largely follow internationally accepted standards.




  1. Scope

The PPI-M covers all large manufacturing establishments (that is those employing 10 or more persons) falling in divisions 15 to 37 of the National Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities (NSIC), whose output is mainly sold on the domestic market.




  1. Price Collection

Prices collected refer to the prices received by producers for the sale of their products on the local market. The prices exclude all taxes on products, namely excise duty and value added tax.

Selected industries are visited on a quarterly basis, but prices are collected for each month of the quarter.


  1. Weighting Scheme

The weights have been calculated from the gross output figures derived from the 2002 Census of Economic Activities. Gross output is valued at basic prices, and thus excludes all taxes on products, namely excise duties and value added tax. The weight of a product group represents the share of its gross output out of the total output of the sector.


In the case of sugar, only the sale on the local market has been taken into consideration in establishing the weights.


  1. Selection of products

The basket consists of 75 producers and 220 varieties. Selection of the commodities included in the basket is proportional to the output of the enterprises selected during the first stage. In the second stage, the list of commodities to be priced is finalized; prevalence being given to those products representative of the output of the industry and that are produced on a continuous basis. Detailed specifications (name, description, brand, weight, size, etc.) of the selected products are obtained from the enterprises.




  1. Reference Year

PPI-M has 2003 as reference period and is based on 2002 weights. It is considered that, given the relative stability of the sector, the price changes that have been observed would not significantly affect the relative weights of the different categories in the PPI-M.

The base price for a particular product is the arithmetic mean of the 12 monthly prices in 2003.

7. Index Calculation
The PPI-M is calculated at the 5-digits level of NSIC. Indices at the Division level (2 digits NSIC) are then derived as a weighted average of the indices of the products falling within each division. Finally, the overall index for manufacturing is obtained as a weighted average of the Division indices.
The PPI is calculated according to a modified Laspeyre’s formula, which is the weighted average of price relatives.


where Ic = Index for current month

Wi = Weight associated with product i

Pci = Price of product i for the current month

Poi = Price for product i for the reference period (2003)


8. Uses


    1. The PPI is a leading indicator of the future status of inflation. Movement of PPI is usually indicative of a similar change of part of the CPI. PPI can also be used in the economic analysis of inflation transmission process.

    2. The PPI provides specific price deflators for the computation of national accounts at constant prices in order to measure real growth

    3. The PPI will be helpful in the formulation of contract agreement. It can be used as an escalation clause to protect buyers and sellers against inflation or deflation.

    4. PPI is also used in econometric models, in forecasting and in inventory accounting.



9. Missing Prices

Prices for temporarily missing products, movement of similar items in the group is analyzed, and if it is found unchanged, the price is carried forward for a quarter.




10. Reliability of the PPI

The statistical accuracy of PPI depends heavily on the quality of information provided by respondents. This office places great emphasis on the need for reporting effective selling prices, i.e. the amount realized by a producer when selling its products on the market inclusive of all discounts and other price deductions rather than the list or catalogue prices.



The results are analyzed and monthly changes or comparisons with same month of previous year are undertaken. Comparisons are made with the CPI or with the import/export price indices. Systematic analyzes of the source data are made in the context of weight and base year revisions that occur every five years.



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