Predicting the effects of sea level rise and salinity changes on west coast tidal marsh plant and avian communities

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Research Schedule

We propose a three-year study incorporating 1.5 years of data collection that will supplement previously-collected data throughout the Bay-Delta. In Year 1, personnel from San Francisco State University (SFSU) and University of San Francisco (USF) will begin field sampling for plant productivity, diversity, and seed dispersal and seed banks. PRBO, SFSU, and USF will also summarize and prepare existing species occurrence data, and prepare elevation and inundation inputs to SDMs. In Year 2, SFSU and USF will conduct a greenhouse experiment investigating effects of increased salinity and inundation on plant growth and survival. PRBO will also obtain spatial salinity projections, develop, and validate SDMs, and generate predictions for SLR and salinity scenarios. In Year 3, USF and SFSU will complete all analysis of field and greenhouse data, and together with PRBO, will finalize models, synthesize results, and write findings for publication.
Significance and Synergism of Collaborative Research Team

The collaborators in this project have worked together during the IRWM project, which was previously mentioned. We combine extensive field experience with plants and birds, as well as modeling and spatial analysis expertise. Through the IRWM project, we began developing a variety of metrics as a predictive tool for plant and animal distributions and abundances in marshes, and in this proposed research we will build on those findings. In addition, the plant PI and senior scientist (Parker, Callaway) have a new proposal in review with CalFed that has been recommended for funding with final approval due by January 2007. The proposed CalFed research would be synergistic with this one (http://science.calwater.ca.gov/pdf/psp/PSP_TSP_results_summary_112206.pdf), focusing on overlapping research sites along the same salinity gradient but targeting questions related to decomposition rates, sedimentation dynamics, plant elevational distributions, and the linkage to estuarine fish food webs. The CalFed research includes a different modeling approach, focusing on potential climate change impacts for fish food webs in Bay-Delta marshes. Together, these two projects would make tremendous contributions to the development of long-term management and policy initiatives for Bay-Delta tidal marsh vegetation and the animals that are dependent on them.

Tables and Figures
Table 1. Sampling strategy for ANPP estimates of dominant plant species at sites in Bay-Delta tidal marshes not previously sampled by USF and SFSU PIs.

	Site
Species	China Camp	Petaluma Marsh	Rush Ranch	Sand Mound Slough
S. pacifica		X
S. foliosa	X	X
B. maritimus	X	X
S. americanus			X	X
S. acutus			X	X
T. angustifolia			X	X

Table 2. Plant species and metrics to be modeled (in addition to species diversity and ANPP).

Common Name	Scientific Name	Status
alkali bulrush	Bolboschoenus maritimus	common, native
Suisun thistle	Cirsium hydrophilum var. hydrophilum	Endangered; Federally listed
soft birds-beak	Cordylanthus mollis ssp. mollis	Endangered; Federally listed
gumplant	Grindelia stricta var. angustifolia	common, native
rose-mallow	Hibiscus lasiocarpus	CNPS List 2.2
Delta tule pea	Lathyrus jepsonii var. jepsonii	CNPS List 1B.2; CA-Endemic
pepperweed	Lepidium latifolium	invasive
Mason's lilaeopsis	Lilaeopsis masonii	CNPS List 1B.1; CA-Endemic
perennial pickleweed	Sarcocornia pacifica	common, native
tule	Schoenoplectus acutus	common, native
common threesquare	Schoenoplectus americanus	common, native
California bulrush	Schoenoplectus californicus	common, native
cordgrass	Spartina alterniflora	invasive
California cordgrass	Spartina foliosa	common, native
cordgrass hybrid	Spartina hybrids	invasive
Suisun marsh aster	Symphyotrichum lentum	CNPS List 1B.2; CA-Endemic

Table 3. Vertebrate species and metrics to be modeled.

Common name	Scientific Name	Presence / Absence	Abundance (Density)
California Clapper Rail	Rallus longirostris obsoletus	X
California Black Rail	Laterallus jamaicensis coturniculus	X
Tidal Marsh Song Sparrow (3 endemic subspecies)	Melospiza melodia samuelis, M.m. pusillula, M.m. maxillaris		X
Salt Marsh Yellowthroat	Geothlypis trichas sinuosa		X
Great Egret	Ardea alba		X
Snowy Egret	Egretta thula		X
Great Blue Heron	Ardea herodias		X

Table 4. Climate change scenarios to be evaluated using SDM techniques (combinations with gray shading). GCM outputs will be based on IPCC Assessment Report 4 (AR4) simulations. GFDL = Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; PCM = Parallel Climate Model. See IPCC (2001) for description of emissions scenarios.

SLR Emissions Scenarios (Cayan et al. 2005)	Salinity Emissions Scenarios / GCMs (from CASCADE project output, based on IPCC 2007 AR4 simulations)
SLR Emissions Scenarios (Cayan et al. 2005)	B1 / GFDL	B1 / PCM	A2 / GFDL	A2 / PCM
B1 / GFDL (13-62 cm)	current accretion rates	current accretion rates
B1 / GFDL (13-62 cm)	max. accretion	max. accretion
A2 / GFDL (18-76 cm)			current accretion rates	current accretion rates
A2 / GFDL (18-76 cm)			max. accretion	max. accretion
A1fi / GFDL (21-89 cm)			current accretion rates	current accretion rates
A1fi / GFDL (21-89 cm)			max. accretion	max. accretion

Figure 1. Average plant species diversity per 3m-diameter plot and ANPP decrease with increasing salinity in the San Francisco Bay-Delta (error bars = ±1 SE; number of random plots per site range from 151 to 447). Salinity data represent measurements averaged across spring months in 2004 (Wetlands and Water Resources, unpublished data). ANPP values were derived from site-specific averages of total standing biomass of individual dominant species that were scaled up to site-level estimates using vegetation maps, and then adjusted by site area to obtain ANPP estimates at the g/m² level.

Figure 2. Locations of existing extensive and intensive sampling locations in the San Francisco-Bay Delta. Additional sites will be selected in the Delta region if possible.

Figure 3. Potential effects of sea level rise (SLR) in the San Francisco-Bay Delta. Maps depict potential extreme shifts in tidal marsh habitat with a 1m rise in sea level, under the assumption that accretion rates do not keep up with SLR. Potential tidal marsh habitat is estimated between 0 and 1 meter above sea level. Current marsh includes tidal and non-tidal (i.e., diked or leveed) marsh.

Figure 4. Preliminary distribution model predictions for Suisun marsh aster (Symphyotrichum lentum) under current and potential future climate change scenarios, using the MaxEnt modeling approach (Phillips et al. 2006). This model uses 1 m sea level rise and increased mean annual salinity projections (- 0.09 to +1.83 PSU; data provided by Noah Knowles, USGS).

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