Monthly Forecast May 2013

UNSMIL Size and Composition Strength as of 28 February 2013: 139 international civilians; 62 local civilians; two police officers. UNSMIL Duration 16 September 2011 to present.

In May, the Council expects a briefing by José Ramos-Horta, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS) on the Secretary-General’s consolidated report due 30 April that will cover UNIOGBIS and the restoration of constitutional order in Guinea-Bissau.

The Council is likely to adopt a resolution extending the mandate of UNIOGBIS, which expires 31 May.

Key Recent Developments

On 22 February, the Council reauthorised UNIOGBIS in resolution 2092 for a period of three months, thus allowing for a substantive re-evaluation of the mandate in May based in part on a forthcoming assessment by Ramos-Horta. The Council last discussed Guinea-Bissau in consultations on 6 March, following the 28 February report of the Secretary- General on the restoration of constitutional order (S/2013/123). The Council was apparently divided on whether or not to consolidate the reporting cycles for UNIOGBIS and the reports on the restoration of constitutional order (requested in resolution 2048). Proponents cited increased efficiency while opponents suggested more frequent meetings would signal greater Council interest.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the AU and the UN have each recently called for legis- lation for the restoration of constitutional order. ECOWAS issued a communiqué on 28 February encouraging interim President Manuel Serifo Nhamajo to propose a feasible transitional roadmap for the conduct of free and fair general elec- tions during 2013, urging the National Assembly to promptly adopt the plan and extending the transitional period until

31 December. On 14 March, Ramos-Horta publicly called for the adoption of a roadmap for the transition by the end of the month. Similarly, on 22 March the AU Peace and Security Council urged local political actors to accelerate efforts to propose and adopt a transitional roadmap. The transitional roadmap is currently under consideration by the National Assembly.

On 23 March, the AU released the report of the Joint ECOWAS/AU/CPLP/EU/UN Assessment Mission to Guinea- Bissau, which was based on a trip to Guinea-Bissau from 16-21 December 2012 by representatives of the five organisa- tions. The joint mission considered a wide range of issues facing Guinea-Bissau, including a stalled transition and electoral process, the need for security sector reform, impunity for human rights violations, drug trafficking and socioeconomic decline. The joint report emphasised the urgent need for a pacte de régime (a combined and revised transition pact and

political agreement) ensuring the inclusivity and legitimacy of required governance reforms. The report also called for the re-engagement of the international community in Guinea-Bissau, with particular attention to modes of coordination and harmonisation.

The UN also conducted a separate technical assessment mission (TAM) in Guinea-Bissau from 16-27 March. The TAM— composed of officials from UN offices in Brindisi, Dakar, Geneva and New York—held meetings with various national stakeholders and international partners. The principal objective of the TAM was to make recommendations regarding potential changes to the mandate, structure and strength of UNIOGBIS. Based on the preliminary findings of the TAM, UNIOGBIS may be restructured, but the mandate and resources of the mission are less likely to be considerably altered.

In a move with potentially significant ramifications for the political transition process in Guinea-Bissau, on 2 April the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) arrested the former chief of the Guinea-Bissau navy, Admiral José Américo Bubo Na Tchuto. He was charged with conspiracy in an arms-for-cocaine deal, in which DEA informants impersonated Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) rebels. Guinea-Bissau’s top intelligence official, Serifo Mane, was suspended in the aftermath of Na Tchuto’s arrest. In a subsequent indictment on 18 April, the US also charged Armed Forces Chief of Staff General Antonio Injai with four counts of conspiracy related to importing cocaine from Colombia and exporting arms intended for the FARC. Injai is also currently under UN sanctions for his role in the 12 April 2012 coup.

Regarding the humanitarian situation, on 26 March the World Food Programme (WFP) announced that it had been forced to temporarily suspend food aid for an estimated 278,000 people (more than one-sixth of Guinea-Bissau’s popula- tion of 1.6 million) due to a lack of funding. WFP had not yet received donations to support the $7.1 million annual coun- try budget. Guinea-Bissau, ranked 176th out of 187 countries surveyed by UNDP’s Human Development Index, is one of the poorest countries in the world, with 69 percent of the population living on less than two dollars a day and 33 percent living on less than one dollar per day.
Key Issues

The principal issue before the Council in May will be determining the preferred mandate, structure, strength and dura- tion of UNIOGBIS.

The restoration of constitutional order remains a key area of concern for Council members.

Organised crime, especially in the form of drug trafficking, has become a conspicuously high-profile issue and may

draw increased attention in the Council.

Options

One option for the Council would be to authorise an expansion of UNIOGBIS, including increased staff and resources, in light of the recommendation in the joint assessment report for the international community to substantially re-engage in Guinea-Bissau.

An additional option for the Council would be, in line with its intention signalled in resolution 2092, to strengthen the sanctions regime by increasing the number of people targeted, broadening the type of sanctions beyond a travel ban, establishing a Panel of Experts and explicitly adding organised crime and drug trafficking as designation criteria.

Alternatively, the Council could authorise the addition of enhanced institutional capacity for UNIOGBIS to tackle drug trafficking and organised crime in collaboration with the UN Office on Drugs and Crime.

The successful conduct of a joint assessment by the UN, AU, EU, ECOWAS and the Community of Portuguese Speaking

Countries (CPLP) could be an encouraging sign of increasing cooperation among international and regional actors.

However, there is also a difficult legacy of rivalry between ECOWAS and CPLP in Guinea-Bissau to overcome, pre- dating the Angolan Military Mission in Guinea-Bissau and the 12 April 2012 coup.

The UN, AU, EU and CPLP have also differed with ECOWAS on the issue of recognising the transitional government. ECOWAS has requested the AU to lift its suspension of Guinea-Bissau’s membership and asked the international com- munity to ease the sanctions imposed on the country

The arrest of Na Tchuto and the indictment of Injai suggest the US has given new emphasis to targeting drug traffick- ing in West Africa, but it remains unclear what implications this may have for the political transition in Guinea-Bissau. To what extent this might affect US positions in the Council is also an open question.

Finally, there is a degree of optimism among Council members and other key stakeholders regarding the appointment

of Ramos-Horta as the Special Representative. It is hoped that his experience and standing may help bridge differences

among critical actors.

Togo is the penholder on Guinea-Bissau, and Morocco is the chair of the 2048 Guinea-Bissau Sanctions Committee.

S/RES/2092 (22 February 2013) renewed the mandate of UNIOGBIS until 31 May 2013.

S/2012/974 (31 December 2012) concerned the appointment of José Ramos-Horta as Special Representative and head of

UNIOGBIS.
Security Council Meeting Records
S/PV.6924 (22 February 2013) was the meeting record during which resolution 2092 was adopted. S/PV.6915 (5 February 2013) was on UNIOGBIS and events in Guinea-Bissau.

Security Council Press Statement
SC/10857 (13 December 2012) expressed serious concern over the lack of progress in the restoration of constitutional order in
Guinea-Bissau.
Sanctions Committee Document
S/2012/975 (31 December 2012) transmitted the annual report on the Guinea-Bissau Sanctions Committee’s activities from 18

May to 31 December 2012.

org/en/article/report-of-the-joint-ecowas-au-cplp-eu-un-assessment-mission-to-guinea-bissau.

Chair of the Guinea-Bissau Sanctions Committee Ambassador Mohammed Loulichki (Morocco).

Chair of the Guinea-Bissau Configuration of the Peacebuilding Commission Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti (Brazil). ECOWAS Mission in Guinea-Bissau (ECOMIB) Size and Composition Strength as of 29 November 2012: 677 soldiers and police

from Burkina Faso, Nigeria and Senegal.

In May, the Security Council may be briefed in consultations by the Secretary-General’s Special Envoy for the Great Lakes

Region, Mary Robinson, following her first trip to the region. A press statement is a possible outcome.

The mandate of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO) expires on 31 March 2014.

On 24 February, the “Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework for the DRC and the Region” was signed in Addis Ababa by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Angola, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Congo, Rwanda, South Africa, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia in the presence of Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. The agreement obligates the DRC to implement security, government and structural reforms and to take steps towards democratisation, decentrali- sation and enhancing economic development and the rule of law in order to establish state authority in the eastern DRC, an area controlled by different rebel groups. It also asks the DRC to enhance the disarmament, demobilisation and reintegra- tion process and for countries to cooperate by agreeing not to assist rebel groups operating in the DRC. The UN, the AU, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region are to act as guarantors of its implementation. Later that day, Council members issued a press statement welcoming the signing of the Framework (SC/10924).

The Secretary-General briefed the Council on 5 March on his 27 February special report (S/2013/119) on possible options and their implications for reinforcing the capability of MONUSCO (S/PV.6928). He recommended that the Council establish an “intervention brigade” under the command of MONUSCO and operating alongside it. This brigade would be responsible for preventing the expansion of armed groups and for neutralising and disarming them. It would include three infantry bat- talions deployed by SADC states. The special report also reiterated the importance of efforts to begin transferring responsibil- ity for MONUSCO’s tasks to the UN Country Team (UNCT) in areas not affected by armed conflict, underlining the intention to eventually withdraw the mission from those areas and to maximise the use of resources. The Secretary-General informed the Council on 15 March of his intention to appoint Robinson as Special Envoy and on 25 March notified the Council that the implementation of his recommendations regarding the intervention brigade would cost an additional $140 million (S/2013/200).

The Council adopted resolution 2098 on 28 March, establishing, for an initial period of one year, an intervention brigade consisting of three infantry battalions and auxiliary forces under MONUSCO command based in Goma. Its key task is to carry out offensive operations to neutralise armed groups in order to reduce the threat to state and civilian security. In light of differences among Council members regarding the robust peace enforcement mandate given to the brigade, it was agreed that it was “on an exceptional basis and without creating a precedent or any prejudice to the agreed principles of peacekeeping.” In addition, the resolution authorises MONUSCO, through its regular forces as well as this new interven- tion brigade, to carry out the following tasks: protection of civilians, monitoring the implementation of the arms embargo and providing support to national and international judicial processes.

In monitoring the implementation of the arms embargo in cooperation with the Group of Experts (GoE) assisting the

1533 DRC Sanctions Committee, the resolution places particular emphasis on cross-border flows of military personnel and arms, including by using surveillance capabilities such as unmanned aerial systems.

The resolution authorises MONUSCO to contribute, in coordination with the UNCT, to various tasks and to transfer, as soon as feasible, any other tasks to the UNCT and to shift its presence from western to eastern DRC to the fullest extent possible.

The resolution also demands that all parties fulfil their obligations under the Framework and calls on Robinson to lead its implementation and establish benchmarks to assess the implementation. The resolution states that the Council will take appropriate measures in case of noncompliance.

The resolution asks the Secretary-General to report every three months, including on the implementation of the Framework and any risks posed to UN personnel stemming from the actions of the intervention brigade. It also expresses the Council’s intention to review progress in the implementation of the Framework following Robinson’s first visit to the region.

On 18 March, Bosco Ntaganda, for whom there has been an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant since 7

August 2006, surrendered himself to the US embassy in Kigali, Rwanda. On 22 March he was transferred to the custody

of the ICC in The Hague. Ntaganda is facing charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

In March, the GoE paid a planned visit to Rwanda and Uganda. Only four (of six) of the experts were allowed into

Rwanda, which had stated in the sanctions committee its refusal to cooperate with two of the experts. The GoE’s latest annual report (S/2012/843) accused both countries of providing support to the March 23 (M23) rebellion in the DRC. While in Rwanda, the GoE visited Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR) detainment camps. They also requested to interview Ntaganda at the US embassy but were not given access.

On 22 March, the Council issued a press statement welcoming Ntaganda’s surrender and expressing concern that Syl-

vestre Mudacumura, commander of the FDLR, is still at large (SC/10956).

On 23 March, Mai-Mai Kata Katanga rebels clashed with DRC military in Lubumbashi, leaving 35 dead according to media reports. Approximately 245 rebels then took refuge in a MONUSCO compound. MONUSCO assisted in negotiating their surrender to the military.

HUMAN RIGHTS-RELATED DEVELOPMENTS

On 8 March, the Secretary-General’s spokesperson, Martin Nesirky, said that MONUSCO had information about the involvement of two battalions of the DRC military in mass rapes and other human rights violations committed in November 2012. In line with the human rights due-diligence policy, the mission addressed two letters in February to the armed forces chief of staff to initiate the formal suspension of support to these units.

In March, the UN Joint Human Rights Office (UNJHRO, comprising the Human Rights Division of MONUSCO and the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights in the DRC) published a report on deaths in detention centres in the DRC that had been confirmed as human rights violations between January 2010 and December 2012. At least 211 persons died in the detention centres as a result of the direct action or negligence of the state or of its officers, including 54 in 2010, 56 in 2011 and 101 in 2012. These findings show that the number of such deaths in detention almost doubled in 2012 compared to the previous two years and that conditions have deteriorated since previous reports in 2004 and 2005. Prison overcrowding, malnutrition, absence or lack of appropriate medical care and the insufficiency of budgets allocated to prisons, combined with the lack of transparency in how funds intended for detention centres are managed, constituted the main causes of these deaths according to the report.

UNJHRO is also preparing a report on the human rights violations committed in Minova and in Goma in November 2012.

The key issue for the Council is to ensure the implementation of resolution 2098 and the fulfilment of the commitments made by the parties in the Framework.

Another issue is to oversee the deployment of the intervention brigade and keep abreast of any collateral effects its exceptional enforcement mandate may have over the peacekeeping mandate of MONUSCO.
Options

The Council can issue a press statement supporting the Special Envoy and calling on the countries in the region to fulfil their obligations and reiterating its willingness to take further measures if commitments are not met.

Another option would be a visit to the region in order to support the implementation of the Framework and show its strategic approach and a resolve to hold the parties to their commitments. (The Council visited the DRC on an annual basis between 2000 and 2010, but has failed to do so since its last visiting mission on 13-16 May 2010.)
Council Dynamics

During the negotiations over the resolution, and in particular the concept of the intervention brigade, some of the troop- contributing countries on the Council (China, Guatemala, Morocco and Pakistan) raised concerns about the blurring of the lines between traditional peacekeeping and robust peace enforcement, both as a matter of principle and because their own peacekeepers lives will be at greater risk.

With the adoption of MONUSCO’s new mandate, Council members are aware of the need to follow closely the imple- mentation of the resolution and the Framework. At this stage they will be interested to hear Robinson’s first impressions after visiting the region and her assessment of the ability and political will of the parties to implement the Framework. In particular, Council members will be interested in hearing her views on the capacity and political will of the DRC government to undertake security sector and other reforms, including the development of a “rapid reaction force” that is to substitute for the intervention brigade in due course.

A Council visit to the region, originally planned for February and then rescheduled to May, has been postponed, possibly to take place in October.

France is the penholder on the DRC.

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE DRC Security Council Resolutions

S/RES/2098 (28 March 2013) renewed the mandate of MONUSCO until 31 March 2014 and created the intervention brigade. S/RES/2078 (28 November 2012) extended the DRC sanctions and the GoE to 1 February 2014.

S/RES/2076 (20 November 2012) was on future responses to the M23 threat.
Security Council Presidential Statement
S/PRST/2012/22 (19 October 2012) was on the unrest caused by the M23.
Security Council Press Statements
SC/10956 (22 March 2013) welcomed the arrest of Ntaganda. SC/10924 (24 February 2013) welcomed the signing of the Framework. Secretary-General’s Reports

S/2013/119 (27 February 2013) was on possible options and their implications for reinforcing the capability of MONUSCO. S/2013/96 (15 February 2013) was the latest report on MONUSCO.

S/2013/1 (2 January 2013) and S/2012/967 (28 December 2012) were from the Secretary-General on the appointment of the

GoE.
OTHER RELEVANT FACTS
Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of Mission Roger Meece (US). MONUSCO Force Commander Lieutenant General Chander Prakash (India).

MONUSCO Size, Composition and Cost of Mission Strength as of 28 February 2013: 17,273 troops, 507 military observers,

1,380 police, 985 international civilian personnel, 2,902 local civilian staff and 591 UN volunteers. Approved budget (1 July
2012-30 June 2013): $1. 4 billion.
Mission Duration 30 November 1999 to present; mandate expires on 31 March 2014.


Central African Republic