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Monthly Forecast May 2013


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Key Issues

A key issue is how much leeway the Council has to get involved in structural prevention and how much added value it offers

as opposed to these topics being discussed at the CTC and addressed through the CTITF.

An immediate issue is the lack of regional cooperation and trust among some countries in the region, especially when it

comes to sharing intelligence.

Ensuring that prevention does not undermine state sovereignty, or is used as a cover for human rights violations is another key issue.


Options

In the adoption of a presidential statement, options for the Council include:

• requesting the Secretary-General to develop an early-warning mechanism to alert the Council of possible terrorist threats (“horizon scanning” briefings by the Department of Political Affairs, which have called the attention of the Council to situations of concern, could be used for this purpose);

• asking the CTITF and its entities to enhance cooperation with regional bodies, such as the AU Commission, the Afri- can Centre for Study and Research on Terrorism (ACSRT) and the Committee of Intelligence and Security Services in Africa (CISSA), among others;

• requesting the Secretary-General and his Special Envoy to elaborate an action plan for the UN integrated strategy for

the Sahel; and

• making full use of the 1566 Working Group, which is mandated to examine practical measures that could be imposed upon individuals, groups or entities involved in or associated with terrorist activities, other than those designated by the 1267/1989 Al-Qaeda Sanctions Committee.
Council Dynamics

Although terrorism is a matter of grave concern for all Council members, a debate on a broad region can show differences in their understanding of terrorism, its causes and the most appropriate ways to address it. In the wake of resolution 1973 and the downfall of the Qaddafi regime in Libya, the issue of arms proliferation in the Sahel and their use by terrorist organisations polarised Council discussions. In a region where some terrorist groups claim political objectives and some political move- ments have violent outlets, Council members may become divided over the categorisation and definition of which groups are considered terrorists.

In the past, Council members have also been divided regarding references to the payment of ransoms for hostages of ter- rorist groups.

Council members have had high expectations regarding the integrated UN strategy for the Sahel. As it has gone through several drafts over the last ten months, most of them have expressed some degree of frustration regarding the successive deferrals of its presentation.



UN DOCUMENTS ON PEACE AND SECURITY IN AFRICA Security Council Resolution

S/RES/2056 (5 July 2012) expressed full support for the joint efforts of ECOWAS, the AU and the interim government in Mali in trying to re-establish constitutionality and territorial integrity.



Security Council Presidential Statement
S/PRST/2012/26 (10 December 2012) recognised the importance of a comprehensive approach encompassing security, devel- opment and humanitarian issues to address the immediate and long-term needs of the Sahel region.

Security Council Press Statements
SC/10887 (18 January 2013) condemned the terrorist attacks in In Aménas, Algeria.
SC/10878 (10 January 2013) expressed grave concern regarding the capture of the city of Konna, Mali, by terrorist and extrem- ist groups.

SC/10984 (23 April 2013) condemned the terrorist attack on the embassy of France in Tripoli, Libya.


USEFUL ADDITIONAL RESOURCE
N. Chowdhury Fink and R. Barakat, Preventing Conflict and Terrorism: What Role for the Security Council? Policy Brief, Center

on Global Counterterrorism Cooperation, Spring 2013.




Mali


Expected Council Action

Following the adoption of resolution 2100 on 25 April, which established the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) to take over from the African-led International Support Mission in Mali (AFISMA), at press time Mali was not likely to be on the May programme of work of the Council. However, the situation in Mali might be addressed in the broader context of the Sahel in the upcoming briefing by the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for the Sahel, Romano Prodi, and discussed in the consultations that will follow, as well as during the debate on the challenges of the fight against terrorism in Africa (both covered in a separate brief in this issue of the Monthly Forecast).

AFISMA’s authorisation expires on 20 December 2013.

Key Recent Developments

The 26 March Secretary-General’s report on Mali included two options for the establishment of a stabilisation mission

(S/2013/189). The first one envisaged strengthening the current multidimensional presence in Bamako and transforming it into an integrated political presence with a better-resourced AFISMA. AFISMA would transition to a UN stabilisation mission once certain critical benchmarks were met. The second option proposed an integrated stabilisation mission with a military strength of 11,200 under Chapter VII alongside a parallel force to conduct counterterrorism operations beyond the scope of the UN’s mandate.

On 29 March, the interim Foreign Minister of Mali, Tiéman Coulibaly, noted a preference for the second option in a letter to the Secretary-General (S/2013/230). Along the same lines, Kadré Désiré Ouedraogo, President of the Commission of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), had asked in a 26 March letter to the Secretary-General that AFISMA be transformed into a robust UN stabilisation mission working alongside a parallel force with the capacity to “dislodge any regrouped terrorists or insurgents” (S/2013/231).

The options were discussed by Council members in consultations on 3 April which included briefings by the Under- Secretary-General for Political Affairs, Jeffrey Feltman, and the Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, Hervé Ladsous. Council members agreed on pursuing the second option.

After three rounds of negotiations, the Council adopted resolution 2100 on 25 April, authorising the establishment of MINUSMA, for an initial period of 12 months, and the transfer of authority from AFISMA to MINUSMA on 1 July 2013. The Council also requested the Secretary-General to re-hat AFISMA’s military and police personnel appropriate to UN standards. Within 60 days of the adoption of the resolution, the Council will review the timeline for the deployment of MINUSMA depending on the security situation in Mali.

The resolution authorises a force structure of 11,200 military personnel and 1,440 police personnel to:

• stabilise key population centres and support the reestablishment of state authority throughout Mali;

• support the implementation of the transitional roadmap;

• protect civilians and UN personnel;

• promote and protect human rights; and

• support humanitarian assistance, cultural preservation and national and international justice.

The resolution also authorises French troops, within the limits of their capacities and areas of deployment, to intervene in support of elements of MINUSMA when under imminent and serious threat and upon request of the Secretary-General. It also includes a request for France to report to the Council on the implementation of this mandate in Mali.

Even though Opération Serval, which France launched on 11 January, successfully rolled back the gains of the terrorist and insurgent groups that seized northern Mali shortly after the 22 March 2012 coup d’état, combat operations are still ongoing, particularly in the Adrar des Ifoghas mountains, Timbuktu, Gao and Kidal. Although governors have returned to Timbuktu and Gao, starting the restoration of state authority in northern Mali, it seems the authorities have not been able to establish a presence in Kidal yet.

Also, the transfer of control over the security situation from French forces to AFISMA in the north has been hindered by terrorist attacks and delays in the arrival of African troops. Following a suicide bombing, which resulted in at least three casualties in Kidal, President Idriss Déby of Chad announced on 14 April that Chadian troops would retreat, claiming that they are ill-equipped to engage in guerrilla warfare. Although not part of ECOWAS, Chad deployed the largest AFISMA contingent, amounting to almost 2,000 troops and having suffered more than 30 casualties.

In the context of the political roadmap approved by the National Assembly of Mali on 29 January, on 30 March the interim government appointed former Defence Minister Mohamed Salia Sokana to chair the Commission of Dialogue and Reconciliation. The interim authorities also appointed two vice chairs and 30 commissioners.

The Support and Follow-up Group on the situation in Mali held its fourth meeting in Bamako on 19 April, under the aus- pices of the UN, AU and ECOWAS. The conclusions of the meeting noted the steps that had been taken towards the consoli- dation of state authority and the security of liberated areas, as well as the implementation of the political roadmap. They also pointed out the main challenges Mali is facing, mainly regarding the reconciliation and political processes, the allegations of violations of human rights, the reform of the Malian Defence and Security Forces, the presidential and parliamentary elec- tions scheduled for 7 and 21 July 2013 and the lack of state control in the city of Kidal.

HUMAN RIGHTS-RELATED DEVELOPMENTS
The Human Rights Council (HRC) in resolution 22/18 of 21 March established a mandate for an independent expert on the situ- ation of human rights in Mali. The expert will be appointed during the 23rd session of the HRC (27 May-14 June).

On 4 April, the first ten of 50 human rights observers to be deployed to Mali by the AU Peace and Security Council and ECOWAS arrived in Bamako. The observers—from Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Congo, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal and Sierra Leone—completed a three-day training program before their deployment to Gao, Timbuktu and Kidal to monitor the human rights situation there.



Key Issues

A key overarching issue is to stabilise the security situation in northern Mali in order to minimise the threats to the UN stabilisation operation. A related issue will be to ensure that the operations of both the French forces and MINUSMA remain independent.

Ensuring that AFISMA has adequate financial and logistical support to fulfil its mandate until 1 July is another key issue.

Ensuring that all AFISMA troops operate within the UN human rights due diligence policy is a related issue.

The provision of electoral support in a timely manner will be an important issue, taking into account that MINUSMA

will be deployed at the earliest on 1 July and that presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled as early as 7 July .

Addressing the potentially destabilising spillover effects from Mali on an already fragile region will be an ongoing issue.

Options

After the establishment of a UN stabilisation operation, immediate options for the Council include:

• requesting the Secretary-General to provide basic financial and logistical support to AFISMA to ensure its ability to operate until the transfer to MINUSMA starts;

• establishing a Group of Experts to investigate the identity and activities of those involved in transnational and organised crime in Mali and the Sahel, with the possibility of imposing targeted sanctions, as recommended in the latest Secretary-General’s report; and

• making full use of the 1566 Working Group, which is mandated to examine practical measures that could be imposed upon individuals, groups or entities involved in or associated with terrorist activities, other than those designated by the 1267/1989 Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee.
Council Dynamics

Council members have been rather unified in the process leading to the adoption of resolution 2100. From the beginning they appeared in agreement that an integrated UN stabilisation operation, working alongside a parallel force, responded better to the needs in Mali than AFISMA under its current configuration.

However, there have been issues that have divided Council members. Although France and other members wanted to accelerate the transition towards a stabilisation operation by establishing a clear timeline and deadline, Russia and oth- ers preferred to receive a clearer assessment of the situation on the ground and prioritise a benchmark-driven process before deploying MINUSMA.

During the negotiations, views also differed on the kind of actions MINUSMA was tasked to undertake, how proactive it should be and the limits of its robust mandate. Some Council members introduced language that tightened the mandate, namely regarding the circumstances of the use of force and the definition of ‘stabilisation’. They also successfully pushed for a clear mention in the preamble reaffirming the basic principles of peacekeeping, including consent of the parties, impartiality, and clearly defined circumstances for the use of force, with the intention of being more precise in distinguish- ing between traditional peacekeeping and peace enforcement.

At the earlier stages of the negotiations, it seems that some Council members had concerns as to how to define the rela- tionship between the French forces and MINUSMA as well as the role of the Council with regards to their mandate. Conse- quently, the resolution mentions the role of French forces supporting MINUSMA when under imminent and serious threat and upon request of the Secretary-General and establishes a reporting requirement for the French forces to the Council.

France is the penholder on Mali.



UN DOCUMENTS ON MALI Security Council Resolution

S/RES/2100 (25 April 2013) established the mandate for MINUSMA.


S/RES/2085 (20 December 2012) authorised the deployment of AFISMA for one year.

Security Council Letters
S/2013/231 (26 March 2013) included a letter from the President of ECOWAS asking for the re-hatting of AFISMA into a UN

stabilisation mission and the establishment of a parallel force.


S/2013/230 (29 March 2013) included a letter from the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Mali endorsing the second option of the
Secretary-General’s report.
Secretary-General’s Report
S/2013/189 (26 March 2013) contained the Secretary-General’s recommendations for a UN mission in Mali.


Libya


Expected Council Action

In May, the Council is due to receive the semi-annual briefing by International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Fatou

Bensouda, who is expected to update the Council on recent developments concerning cases in Libya.

The mandates of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and the Panel of Experts (PoE) assisting the 1970 Libya

Sanctions Committee expire on 16 March 2014 and 16 April 2014, respectively.

Key Recent Developments

On 14 March, the Council unanimously adopted resolution 2095, extending UNSMIL’s mandate by 12 months and the mandate of the PoE for 13 months. The resolution called upon Libya to continue to cooperate fully with, and provide any necessary assistance to, the ICC and the Prosecutor as required by resolution 1970. The sanctions regime was modified by removing the requirement that the Sanctions Committee approve the use of non-lethal military equipment and assistance for humanitarian or protective use. It also removed the need to notify the Committee about non-lethal military equipment being supplied to the government for security or disarmament assistance. The resolution also urged the government to improve the monitoring of arms supplied to Libya, including through the issuance of end-user certificates.

While welcoming such positive developments as the 7 July 2012 elections, the resolution also expressed concern about continuing reports of reprisals, arbitrary detentions, torture and extrajudicial executions and called for the release and safe return of all foreign nationals illegally detained in Libya.

The work of the General National Congress (GNC) was seriously impeded in March by a series of violent demonstra- tions that besieged its building and attacked several members, including President Mohammed Magarief. The violence was apparently in support of a political isolation law currently under discussion in the GNC that would bar Qaddafi-era officials from holding public office.

As highlighted by the Special Representative of the Secretary-General, Tarek Mitri, during his 14 March Council brief- ing, respect for the rule of law continues to be a challenge in Libya. Although some measures have been taken to tackle this issue, mistreatment and detention without due process of several thousand people in militia-controlled detention facilities continue to be a problem.

Relations between Libya and the ICC have been tense following the request by the ICC to try Saif al-Islam Qaddafi and former intelligence chief Abdullah al-Senussi in The Hague as per the ICC referral contained in resolution 1970. Libya chal- lenged the admissibility of both cases on 1 May 2012 claiming that they were already under investigation in Libya. After the ICC ordered Libya on 6 February 2013 to surrender al-Senussi, Libya filed a second challenge to the admissibility of the case on 2 April. An ICC Pre-Trial Chamber is expected to rule in due course regarding the challenges. (Qaddafi appeared before a local court in January and was tried on charges of undermining state security and attempting to escape from prison. At press time, he had not yet been tried on charges related to crimes allegedly committed during the uprising.)

On 23 April, a terrorist attack against the French embassy in Tripoli resulted in several injuries and severe damage. The

Security Council issued a press statement condemning the attack in the strongest terms (SC/10984).

At press time, armed militiamen had blockaded and attacked at least four ministries in support of the political isolation law. In response to the pressure, the GNC suspended its sessions until 5 May when the law will be debated.

HUMAN RIGHTS-RELATED DEVELOPMENTS
Addressing the Human Rights Council (HRC) on 20 March, the then-UN Deputy High Commissioner for Human Rights, Kyung- wha Kang, stated that Libya was still facing considerable challenges and remained at a critical juncture. She said that the Human Rights Section of UNSMIL focused its support to the transitional authorities and civil society on five priority areas: ending conflict- related detention and preventing cases of torture and ill-treatment; strengthening the rule of law; encouraging relevant treaty ratifications and commenting on draft laws; moving forward with a comprehensive strategy on transitional justice; and promoting a human rights culture.

The following day, the HRC adopted a resolution urging Libya to continue to investigate all violations of human rights, to

guarantee fair trials, to continue its efforts to prevent cases of arbitrary arrest and ill-treatment of detainees, to take further steps to protect freedom of religion and belief and to expedite the return of all persons displaced by the conflict since 2011 (A/HRC/ RES/22/19).

The UN working groups on enforced or involuntary disappearances and on the use of mercenaries are due to visit Libya from

8-17 May and from 20-25 May, respectively.

Key Issues

An overarching issue is the fragile security situation and the impact of regional instability on Libya due to the deficient control of its porous borders. According to the final report of the PoE, most former revolutionary brigades remain in control of the weapons they used during the revolution.

Halting the proliferation of weapons stockpiled in Libya into the Sahel and beyond is a closely related issue for Council

members.


A pressing issue is ensuring respect for the rule of law and reforming the legal institutions (justice system, law enforce- ment mechanisms and correctional facilities) in order to generate trust in the political and legal system, as well as to prevent retaliatory actions aimed at naming and shaming alleged wrongdoers without due process.

A related issue for the Council is the conflicting views of Libya and the ICC regarding the trial of the two ICC indictees and the role, if any, of UNSMIL in this context.

Another issue is to ensure the coordination between the sanctions regime and the international criminal procedures currently in place in order to allow information-sharing regarding listed individuals and prevent different procedures from undermining each other.
Options

Options for the Council include:

• receiving a briefing and taking no action;

• issuing a statement that would aim at enhancing sanctions effectiveness by encouraging Libya to assign a focal point structure through which all security assistance procurement should be channeled, as recommended in the final PoE report; and

• asking member states to submit designation proposals to the Sanctions Committee relating to those assisting listed individuals designated under the asset freeze measures, as recommended in the final PoE report.
Council Dynamics

Arms proliferation in Libya and its consequences in the region have been a source of contention among Council members since the fall of the Qaddafi regime.

Regarding the venue for the trials of al-Senussi and Qaddafi, it seems unlikely that the Council will pronounce itself in favour of Libya or The Hague, despite its referral of the situation in Libya to the ICC. In April, there have been controversies in the Council about references to the ICC in the presidential statement on conflict prevention in Africa (S/PRST/2013/4) as well as in resolution 2100 on the situation in Mali. In this context, it is unlikely that the seven Council members that are parties to the Rome Statute would push for a Council decision.

The UK is the penholder on Libya.



UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA Security Council Resolutions

S/RES/2095 (14 March 2013) extended the mandates of UNSMIL and the PoE.


S/RES/1973 (17 March 2011) authorised all necessary measures to protect civilians in Libya and enforce the arms embargo,
imposed a no-fly zone, strengthened the sanctions regime and established a PoE.
S/RES/1970 (26 February 2011) referred the situation in Libya to the ICC and established a Sanctions Committee for the arms embargo, travel ban and assets freeze imposed by the resolution.

Secretary-General’s Report
S/2013/104 (21 February 2013) was the latest report of the Secretary-General on UNSMIL.
Security Council Meeting Records
S/PV.6934 (14 March 2013) was the latest briefing by Special Representative Tarek Mitri. S/PV.6855 (7 November 2012) was the fourth briefing by the Prosecutor of the ICC. Security Council Press Statement

SC/10984 (23 April 2013) condemned the terrorist attack against the Embassy of France in Libya.

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