Monthly Forecast April 2013

SC/10668 (8 June 2012) condemned the attack by unknown militia fighters that killed seven peacekeepers from Niger and 11 others

near the Liberian border.

Sanctions Committee Document

S/2012/766 (15 October 2012) was the midterm report of the Group of Experts on Côte d’Ivoire.

Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNOCI Albert Gerard Koenders (Netherlands).

UNOCI Size and Composition Strength as of 31 January 2013: 418 international civilians, 767 local civilians, 9,361 troops, 195 military

observers, 1,462 police and 179 UN volunteers.

UNOCI Duration 4 April 2004 to present.

Middle East


Expected Council Action

In April the Council is expected to hold its quarterly open debate on the Middle East, following a briefing by Under-Secre- tary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman. Discussions will likely focus on the stalled peace process and the humani- tarian and security situations in Gaza and the West Bank. Feltman’s briefing will also likely cover recent events in Syria.

The Security Council’s last quarterly open debate on the Middle East was held on 23 January. Following a briefing by Spe- cial Coordinator Robert Serry, who reiterated the need for “concerted action…to salvage the two-state solution”, Palestinian Foreign Minister Riad Malki and officials from more than 40 states made statements in either their national capacity or on behalf of regional organisations or groupings.

Since that debate, the Council has received two additional briefings on the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question. In his briefing on 26 February, Feltman described 2013 as “a year that could…extinguish what hope remains for a two-state solution”, and added there is “no process of negotiation…on the horizon.” On 25 March, Serry asserted that it was time for “concerted action” to support a “serious international initiative” including through the Middle East Quartet (comprising the UN, the EU, Russia and the US).

Israel held parliamentary elections on 22 January. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s conservative Likud party, running in alliance with the nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu party, won 11 fewer Knesset seats than they had previously held, though still more than any other ticket. A new centrist party, Yesh Atid, won the second-most seats. Following weeks of negotiations, a new government coalition was announced on 15 March that included Likud, Yesh Atid, the far-right Jewish Home party and the centre-left Hatnu’a party but excluded the ultra-orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties, both of which had been part of Netanyahu’s last government. The new government is expected to focus on domestic issues more than the Palestinian question.

In February, significant tensions arose in the West Bank regarding the situation of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Protests in support of four Palestinian prisoners engaged in hunger strikes led to clashes with the Israeli army on 21

February that injured more than 60 people. On 23 February, Arafat Jaradat, a Palestinian man arrested on 18 February on suspicion of throwing stones at Israeli settlers, died while in Israeli custody. Though Israel’s health ministry asserted that an autopsy of Jaradat did not conclusively determine the cause of death, the Palestinian Minister of Prisoner Affairs subsequently alleged that Jaradat was tortured. In response, a significant portion of the more than 4,500 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons took part in a hunger strike on 24 February, while concurrent protests were held in several towns throughout the West Bank.

During consultations following the 26 February briefing, it appears that Morocco suggested elements to the press expressing concern about the circumstances surrounding the detention and death of Jaradat, though ultimately no agree- ment was reached. On 17 March, one of the four original hunger-strikers was released into Gaza after ending his strike and agreeing to a plea bargain. Two of the remaining strikers—who had been held without trial since November—ended their strikes on 28 February in advance of a hearing on their case.

On 20 March, US President Barack Obama arrived in Tel Aviv for a four-day visit to the region. Prior to the visit, the

White House made clear that Obama would not bring any new proposals with him but that the visit was rather a “listen- ing tour”. Speaking in Ramallah on 21 March following a meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Obama was critical of Israeli settlement activity but did not call for a construction freeze, adding that both sides would have to “think anew” to resolve outstanding issues. In a speech in Jerusalem that afternoon, Obama reiterated the need for negotiations and the fact that they must lead to “two states for two peoples”. Also on 21 March, two rockets fired from Gaza struck southern Israel, but caused no injuries.
HUMAN RIGHTS-RELATED DEVELOPMENTS

In March 2012, the Human Rights Council (HRC) decided to establish an independent international fact-finding mission to investigate the implications of Israeli settlements on the human rights of the Palestinian people throughout the Occupied Palestinian Territories, including East Jerusalem. Following the adoption of this resolution, Israel decided to suspend its cooperation with the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, the HRC and its mechanisms. Israel did not submit its national report on human rights to the working group of the Universal Periodic Review (UPR) due last October, and failed, on 29 January 2013, to appear before the working group of the UPR for its second review scheduled on that day. (This was the first time that a state was absent for its own review.) The HRC decided by consensus to reschedule Israel’s UPR to the 17th session of UPR in October-November.

On 18 March, the HRC held an interactive dialogue with the fact-finding mission, which presented its report released on 7 February (A/HRC/22/63). Also on 18 March, High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay introduced to the HRC her report on the imple- mentation of HRC resolutions on the human rights situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territories covering November 2011-November

2012 and its addendum covering the period of escalating hostilities from 14-21 November 2012 (A/HRC/22/35 and Add.1).

On 22 March, the HRC adopted four resolutions on the Occupied Palestinian Territories and a resolution regarding the follow-up to

the report of the UN independent international fact-finding mission on the Gaza conflict.

Syria is also likely come up for discussion during the open debate, as it has regularly for over a year. (The ongoing Syrian crisis was first included in the regular monthly briefing to the Council on the Middle East on 25 August 2011.)

Council members will likely be particularly interested in hearing about developments relating to the Secretary-General’s investigation of allegations that chemical weapons had been used in the conflict. On 19 March, the Government of Syria and the opposition each accused the other of employing chemical weapons in an attack that killed dozens in Aleppo prov- ince. France raised the issue in the Council under “other matters” on 20 March. At the media stakeout following those consultations, the president of the Security Council, Ambassador Vitaly Churkin (Russia), indicated that Syria had sent a letter to the Secretary-General requesting an “impartial” investigation of the 19 March incident. Answering questions in his national capacity, he added that the discussions in the Council had included “such exotic proposals” as an investigation of “rumours” of other uses of chemical weapons inside Syria, which he took to be an effort to derail a focused investigation of the Syrian government’s allegation. Ambassador Gérard Araud (France) and Deputy Permanent Representative Philip Parham (UK) spoke subsequently, to provide, as Araud put it, “the other side of the truth, after this fascinating reconstruc- tion of our meeting”. Parham noted that the Syrian National Coalition had alleged two incidents of the use of chemical weapons by the government and that the UK and France would be requesting the Secretary-General to investigate “any reports” of the use of chemical weapons.

On 21 March, in response to the request for an investigation from the Government of Syria, the Secretary-General announced his intention to establish a technical mission to investigate the Aleppo incident. The same day, the Secre- tary-General received letters from both France and the UK requesting an investigation of several other incidents. In his responses to Syria, France and the UK, the Secretary-General made clear that the current investigation would focus on the specific incident alleged in Aleppo on 19 March, but requested all three governments to provide additional informa- tion pertaining to each alleged incident. The Secretary-General reiterated his intentions and his requests in a letter to the Security Council dated 22 March (S/2013/184).

On 25 March, speaking again at the media stakeout, Churkin indicated that he was “perplexed” that the mandate of the mission would not include identifying who deployed the weapons on 19 March. (The Spokesperson for the Secretary- General confirmed on 26 March that the mission would focus on verifying whether or not chemical weapons were used. He also said that additional information regarding the alleged incidents had been received from Syria and the UK.) At the same stakeout, Churkin also confirmed that Russia and China had both requested to have representatives participat- ing as experts in the mission, but had been told by the Secretariat that it was their belief that P5 representatives should not be included. (Speaking to the press on 25 March, US State Department Acting Deputy Spokesperson Patrick Ventrell

indicated that the US would support a team that included Russia and China, but that the final determination would be up to the UN.) On 26 March, Churkin told reporters that experts from the P5 would probably not be included in the mission.

Regarding the mission’s composition and mandate, at press time the terms of reference for the investigation had not been finalised. On 26 March, the Secretary-General appointed Ake Sellstrom, the former Chief Inspector with the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) established in 1991 and tasked with ensuring Iraq’s compliance with its disarmament obligations following its invasion and occupation of Kuwait in 1991, to head the mission.

The work of the chemical weapons probe will most likely considerably depend on the security situation in Syria. On 22

March the Security Council adopted a press statement condemning a terrorist attack on a mosque in Damascus that killed more than 40 people, including a senior Muslim cleric (SC/10953). On 24 March, several mortar rounds landed near the hotel in Damascus housing UN staff, prompting the UN to remove nearly half of its international staff from Damascus until the security situation improved.
Key Issue

The key issue remains the lack of progress in the Israel/Palestine peace process and whether or not the Security Council

can have any impact on that process.

Underlying Problems

The major obstacles facing the Middle East peace process remain unchanged: the Palestinian Authority requires an end to settlement activity as a prerequisite to negotiations, while Israel only accepts talks without preconditions. The prominence of the Jewish Home party (which is popular among Israeli settlers) in the new government and the government’s stated interest in focusing on domestic issues suggest that returning to negotiations will not be a priority for Israel.

Further complicating matters is the possibility that the Palestinian Authority could use its upgraded status at the UN to press claims against Israel through the International Criminal Court, an action that Israel would find counter-productive to returning to negotiations. (In November the General Assembly adopted a resolution conferring non-member observer state status on Palestine.)

Finally, the financial crisis facing the Palestinian Authority has continued to worsen in 2013, a situation some have speculated could lead Abbas to dissolve it altogether, returning the administration of the West Bank to Israel in an effort to compel it to return to negotiations.

The Council has very few options in April on the Middle East peace process, and it is likely that the open debate will again

feature the reiteration of Council members’ previously stated positions.

The Council’s last substantive outcome specifically addressing the Middle East peace process was resolution

1850 adopted on 16 December 2008.

Council and Wider Dynamics

Most Council members believe that no activity will be possible in the Security Council on the Middle East peace process without the active support of the US and are waiting to see what, if anything, develops in the region in the wake of Obama’s visit. The most recent effort to adopt a resolution on Israel/Palestine took place on 18 February 2011, when a draft resolu- tion (S/2011/24) condemning Israeli settlement activity was vetoed by the US.

Some Council members believe a new initiative could begin elsewhere, beyond the Council, either in the form of renewed activity by the Middle East Quartet or a new initiative from the League of Arab States, which, at press time, was holding its annual summit in Doha, Qatar.
UN DOCUMENTS ON ISRAEL/PALESTINE Security Council Resolutions

S/RES/1860 (8 January 2009) called for an immediate ceasefire leading to the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the

sustained reopening of the crossing points.

S/RES/1850 (16 December 2008) supported the Annapolis peace process and its commitment to the irreversibility of bilateral negotiations.

S/RES/1515 (19 November 2003) stated the necessity for a two-state solution.

Security Council Meeting Records

S/PV.6940 (25 March 2013) was the monthly briefing by Special Coordinator Robert Serry on the situation in the Middle East. S/PV.6926 (26 February 2013) was the monthly briefing by Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman on the situ- ation in the Middle East.

S/PV.6906 and Resumption 1 (23 January 2013) was the last quarterly debate on the Middle East.
Other

S/2011/24 (18 February 2011) was the draft resolution on settlements vetoed by the US.

A/HRC/22/35 and Add.1 (6 March 2013) was the report of the High Commissioner for Human Rights on the human rights situation in the occupied Palestinian territories.

A/HRC/22/63 (7 February 2013) was the report of the independent international fact-finding mission to investigate the impact of Israeli

settlements on human rights.

S/2013/184 (22 March 2013) was from the Secretary-General informing the Council of his intention to conduct an investigation into the alleged use of chemical weapons in Syria.

SC/10953 (22 March 2013) condemned a terrorist attack on a mosque in Damascus that killed more than 40 people.

S/PV.6602 (25 August 2011) was the first instance of the Secretariat including the current Syrian crisis in its regular monthly briefing

on the Middle East.


Women, Peace and Security


Expected Council Action

In April, the Council is expected to consider the Secretary-General’s report on sexual violence in conflict (S/2013/149) dur- ing an open debate. Rwanda’s Foreign Affairs Minister Louise Mushikiwabo is expected to preside. The Secretary-General and Zainab Bangura, the Special Representative on the issue, will brief. Bangura is also likely to update the Council on her trip to the AU Summit in Addis Ababa in January which led to invitations for field visits to the Democratic Republic of Congo in late March and to Somalia in early April.

At press time, it was unclear whether there would be an outcome.

Key Recent Developments

Bangura was appointed on 22 June 2012 and took up her office in September. Her first visiting mission was to the Central African Republic (CAR) on 5-13 December 2012 and she subsequently briefed the Council on 11 January (S/PV.6899). She also briefed Council members on Syria in consultations on 27 February. (The Syrian government has committed to a visit by Bangura in 2013.) It seems her 22 January visit to Addis also led to an invitation to visit Mali in the near future.

The 2013 report on sexual violence in conflict highlighted several emerging concerns, such as sexual violence against men and boys, particularly in the context of detention; the practice of forced marriage by armed groups; the links between sexual violence and natural resource extraction; and the correlation between sexual violence and inadequate security sector reform and disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration efforts (SSR and DDR). It provided country-specific information in three categories:

• parties to armed conflict credibly suspected of committing or being responsible for rape or other forms of sexual vio- lence (in Afghanistan, CAR, Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, DRC, Mali, Myanmar, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan/Darfur, Syria and Yemen);

• sexual violence in post-conflict situations (in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Liberia, Libya, Nepal, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka

and Timor-Leste); and

• other situations of concern (in Angola, Guinea and Kenya).

Compared with the 2012 Secretary-General’s report (S/2012/33), situations added were Afghanistan, Mali and Yemen, and situations dropped were Chad and Egypt. The category of sexual violence in the context of elections, political strife or civil unrest that was part of the 2012 report was removed.

As in 2012, the current report also has an annex with three significant additions: the Syrian government forces and their allied militia, the Shabbiha; the Séléka rebels in the CAR; and several armed groups in Mali. There were also addi- tions under the existing DRC listing, such as the Congolese national police, the M23 and several more Mai-Mai groups in the Kivus.

The Council held its annual open debate on women, peace and security on 30 November 2012 (S/PV.6877), and the head of UN Women, Michelle Bachelet, briefed. (On 15 March, Bachelet announced her plans to step down as head of UN Women.)

On 31 October 2012, the Council adopted a presidential statement highlighting the need in the Council’s own work for more systemic attention to the women, peace and security agenda (S/PRST/2012/23). (The debate was originally sched- uled for 29 October but was postponed when UN headquarters closed due to Hurricane Sandy.)
Key Issues

A key issue for the Council is maintaining consensus around the importance of the overall women, peace and security

framework and ensuring that it is integrated into all of the Council’s work.

A related issue is how to best respond to the information contained in the Secretary-General’s report on sexual violence in conflict. How to quickly, yet effectively, act with regard to those included in the annex of the report will be another key consideration for Council members.

At press time it was unclear whether there would be sufficient appetite or time to negotiate an outcome. However, an option for the Council is to adopt a presidential statement or resolution that takes up recommendations from the 2013 report. The Council could:

• take note of the parties named in the report and express the Council’s intention to consider appropriate action when renewing or establishing relevant political or peacekeeping missions, especially in the context of DDR and SSR pro- cesses and the deployment of gender expertise, in particular women’s protection advisers;

• endorse the Special Representative’s work of engaging with governments and armed groups to establish commitments

for accountability for sexual violence and form procedures to allow for the systematic monitoring of such commitments;

• direct relevant sanctions committees to consider whether parties named in the annex should be subject to existing

sanctions or whether designation criteria should be expanded to include sexual violence;

• commit to regularly including sexual violence considerations as part of its terms of reference for Council visiting mis-

sions; or

• commit to calling for the inclusion of addressing sexual violence concerns in mediation and peace processes, particu- larly in the context of security arrangements and transitional justice mechanisms.

It was difficult in 2012 to advance this thematic issue in the Council, particularly due to the concerns expressed by China, India, Pakistan and Russia.

Regarding the 2012 report on conflict-related sexual violence, these members were resistant to the inclusion of countries that in their view did not constitute threats to international peace and security and were therefore considered to be outside the purview of the Security Council. Similar arguments arose during the negotiations on the 31 October 2012 presidential statement, when these members suggested the Council should limit its commitments to the 1325 women’s participation agenda to armed conflict and post-conflict situations.

It is too early to tell whether this trend will be reversed in the near term. However, it seems many of the criticisms were addressed in the 2013 report and initial reactions by Council members seem to be cautiously positive, even amongst Council members who registered significant concern last year.

New Council members Argentina, Australia and Luxembourg are strong advocates of the women, peace and security

agenda. The other two new Council members, the Republic of Korea and Rwanda, are also expected to be supportive of the

issue.

It seems possible the Council may address the issue of sexual violence again in June. The UK initiative on preventing sexual violence will likely be highlighted in the Council and at the G8 summit that month since the UK will have the presi- dency of both in June.

S/RES/1960 (16 December 2010) requested listing parties credibly suspected of bearing responsibility for patterns of rape and other forms of sexual violence.

S/RES/1889 (5 October 2009) requested a set of indicators to track implementation of resolution 1325. S/RES/1888 (30 September 2009) established the mandate of the Special Representative. S/RES/1820 (19 June 2008) addressed sexual violence in conflict and post-conflict situations. S/RES/1325 (31 October 2000) promoted women’s participation in peace and security processes.