Masaryk university
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1. 1. Objectives and structure of the thesisThe analysis and further possible scenarios of the conflict in Turkey will use a qualitative methodology, particularly a case study, relying on the theory of conflict presented for instance in works by Peter Wallensteen (Understanding Conflict Resolution) or Dean G. Pruitt and Sung Hee Kim (Social Conflict: Escalation, Stalemate and Settlement). Wallensteen provides a complete definition of a conflict as: “a social situation in which a minimum of two actors (parties) strive to acquire at the same moment in time an available set of scare resources”.2 Accordingly there are three main components of the conflict: incompatibility, action and actors.3 Applying to the thesis the objective will be to provide an analysis of the dyadic conflict between the government of Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party. The focus is placed on two particular parties included in the conflict although multiple actors are involved because the dyadic conflict is the main focus of the theory of conflict. Besides, multiple parties are often reduced to the case between two parties.4 The conflict will be analyzed in the time-frame from 1984, when the PKK started its violent insurgency, to the present. The thesis seeks by reduction of attention on dyad and limited time period to provide as deep and focused analysis as possible. The strict division on particular components of the conflict (parties, incompatibility, power resources etc.) should contribute to this effort because it provides a well-arranged structure that enables to present the conflict from different angles. Chosen structure also aims at incorporating all relevant factors that might be overlooked when approaching the analysis only chronologically. The conflict analysis will further serve as a basis for the second part of the thesis where we aim to envisage three different scenarios of future development – status quo, escalation and de-escalation. In each scenario the thesis will analyze specific environmental factors influencing each separate path but also inter-linkages and cross-overs between them. A scenario tree will be drawn as a result – it will show possible sequence of events in each scenario. All scenario sketches will be based on a time frame of two years in the future. The thesis is believed to contribute to the field of international relations because it intends to introduce the theory of conflict studies which is not widely spread in the Czech environment. The complex analysis aims to put together all relevant factors of the conflict in one coherent text and present as much a comprehensive and correct picture of the conflict as possible. The thesis is to become a valuable basis for a deeper examination of each particular aspect of the conflict. Concentration on different scenarios will be beneficial for understanding the dynamics of the conflict and especially for awareness of possible impact of different parties. It should help to detect areas crucial to the conflict resolution, although the thesis has no ambition to propose an ultimate solution. The conflict in Turkey is an example of ethnic conflict which links to the question of nationalism. The Kurdish effort to apply the principle of national self-determination is a part of the ongoing debate within the field of international relations between two counter-concepts – principle of national self-determination on one side and territorial integrity of existing states on the other. In some respect the conflict in Turkey is also representative case because it points out the problem of multiculturalism which is very topical in today’s politics. The successful solution to the conflict in line with the democratization process can serve as a model for other countries that are facing similar problems. Moreover, the international awareness of the conflict in Turkey is reinforced by its membership in NATO and aspiration to become a full member of the European Union. The thesis has thus an ambition to be a useful part of the discussion over the Kurdish issue in Turkey which will probably be the centre of attention many a years to come. 1. 2. HypothesesThe conflict analysis presented in the thesis is crucial because it serves as a basis for the different scenarios that should provide the possible developments of event in the two-year timeframe. Understandably the portrayal of scenarios is rather theoretical; however, we can observe some trends that can hint to future development. Considering the relevant players that take part in the conflict as well as factors influencing current domestic and the international environment the thesis aims to confirm or rebut three hypotheses that tie to each scenario. Each hypothesis counts on different factors both internal and external which are considered to be fundamental to a particular development:
In the first hypothesis the thesis assumes the crucial role of a domestic political environment which is characterized by a strong position of the Kemalist-nationalist establishment who will slow down or hinder the reform process. Moreover, if the accession process with the EU does not gain new dynamics the leverage of the EU on positive development will be significantly constraint. However, when both the EU and Turkey succeed in restoration of their relations, the second hypothesis presumes that the conflict will deescalate. When this is not the case and the support of EU will be fading away the radicalization of the PKK along with Turkey’s decision to tackle the PKK by military means will lead to escalation, as expected by the third hypothesis. |