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Georgia Woes Could Send Ripple Through Other Frozen Conflicts (27.08.2008) Separatist leaders in South Ossetia and Abkhazia had been eagerly awaiting a sign from the Kremlin after the Russian parliament urged President Dmitry Medvedev to recognize Georgia's two separatist regions. They were not disappointed. Medvedev's decision the following day, August 26, to officially recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia marked a major strategic shift for Moscow. Russia has backed both provinces since they broke away from the central Georgian government in the early 1990s. But until this week it had stopped short of recognizing their sovereignty, and had been a nominal participant in international efforts to negotiate a peaceful settlement. The move, which followed a large-scale Russian military operation in South Ossetia this month, is sure to have ripple effects on other frozen conflicts areas where Moscow wields considerable influence -- Moldova's Transdniester and Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-majority territory located within Azerbaijan. Medvedev himself has been quick to draw parallels with the different frozen conflicts simmering in the post-Soviet region. "Certain recent events have shown how dangerous the conflict potential in some frozen conflicts, as they're commonly called, can be," the Russian president told his Moldovan counterpart, Vladimir Voronin, on August 25 in Russia's Black Sea resort of Sochi, in a tacit warning against any attempt by Chisinau to retake its breakaway province by force. "This became particularly apparent in South Ossetia, where, as a result of aggressive actions -- after Georgia's leadership had basically gone crazy -- all those problems became exacerbated and essentially an armed conflict took place. This is a very serious warning to everybody, and I think we should consider other existing problems in this context now." The South Ossetian conflict has sparked fears in Moldova that Moscow could now move to recognize the independence of Transdniester, whose separatist leadership has been pushing for integration with Russia. The conflict has given the province new strategic importance, since it borders Ukraine -- which, like Georgia, has angered Moscow by seeking closer ties with the West and the NATO military alliance. Medvedev's decision to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia has certainly raised hopes of independence in Transdniester and radicalized the stance of its separatist leadership, which announced last week it was breaking off all contacts with Moldovan officials until they denounced Georgia's "aggression" against South Ossetia. But Grigory Volovoi, who heads a human rights group in Transdniester, says the odds of Russia recognizing Transdniester are low. "Most people in Transdniester think that, since the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia was recognized, Transdniester can expect the same. But the situation is completely different," Volovoi says. "Relations between Moldova and Transdniester lack the ethnic element characteristic of the Georgian-South Ossetian-Abkhaz conflict. More importantly, Transdniester doesn't have the trump card that Abkhazia and South Ossetia had -- a common border with the Russian Federation." Moldova's President Voronin (right) with Medvedev in Sochi Medvedev, perhaps eager to repair the diplomatic damage caused by Russia's heavy-handed actions in Georgia, has offered Voronin reassurances that Moscow is still committed to finding a peaceful solution to the crisis. "I see good prospects of reaching a settlement," he said on August 25. Voronin appeared receptive to the message, likening frozen conflicts to dangerous "volcanoes" and vowing to prevent a repeat of the violence that rocked South Ossetia. Political analysts say a quick resolution of the conflict is not on the cards. Despite his conciliatory tone and his close ties with Moscow, Moldova's Voronin may be reluctant for now to accept a Russian-brokered deal that grants Transdniester broad autonomy -- a move that could hurt the popularity of him and his Communist Party at home ahead of next year's parliamentary elections. The deal would also allow Transdniester to secede if Moldova chooses to join neighboring EU member Romania in one state. Watching Closely In Baku, Yerevan Then there is Nagorno-Karabakh. The disputed territory -- which is home to an Armenian majority but lies within Azerbaijan's borders -- differs from the other frozen conflicts. Unlike South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Transdniester, the population of Nagorno-Karabakh doesn't hold Russian passports and doesn't seek extensive Russian patronage. Rather, its goal is outright independence, or barring that, reintegration with Armenia. Officials in both Azerbaijan and Armenia have been notably muted on Russia's actions in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Baku is keen to regain control over the disputed territory and has steadily built up its military in an implicit threat to take the region by force. But Azerbaijani officials have avoided any harsh statements on Russia in recent weeks, perhaps wary of stirring resentment in Moscow. Azerbaijani political commentators and journalists, however, have been much more vocal in denouncing Russia's military operation in Georgia. "I think Russia is capable of repeating this aggression against Azerbaijan by using the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh," says Vefa Quluzade, who served as foreign-policy adviser to former Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev. "It's Russia that occupies 20 percent of Azerbaijani territory under Armenia's flag, it's Russia that hampers any step toward a resolution. Russia doesn't want this conflict to be settled because it needs this conflict to harass Azerbaijan, to get Azerbaijan back into the Russian empire." Armenia, which has far stronger ties with Russia, has been slow to take sides in the Russia-Georgia conflict. Military maneuvers in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2005Russia helped Armenian forces in the Nagorno-Karabakh war and has a military base in Armenia. Russia's efforts to gain a grip on Azerbaijan's vast energy resources has also served Armenia's interests in Nagorno-Karabakh by blocking a resolution of the conflict in Azerbaijan's favor. On the other hand, the landlocked country depends heavily on neighboring Georgia, through which the bulk of its imports -- including Russian oil -- transits. Setting a collision course with Tbilisi could also prove disastrous for the 450,000 ethnic Armenians currently living in Georgia. Recent events have raised concerns in Armenia that the Russian offensive in South Ossetia could embolden Azerbaijan to launch a similar military operation to seize Nagorno-Karabakh. But Tom de Waal, a London-based Caucasus expert, says Armenians have no reason to worry for now. "I think it would actually show them how dangerous it would be to start a war in the Caucasus, the amount of destruction that can be caused and how dangerous that could be for Azerbaijan," de Waal says. "I think that would be quite a sobering lesson." Medvedev's recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia is nonetheless bound to affect the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh since Russia, together with the United States and France, co-chairs the Minsk Group, a body created by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to foster a peaceful resolution of the conflict. "It will complicate the Karabakh peace process because of the fact that the Russians and the Americans are two out of three mediators," de Waal says of a process that has already been dragged out over more than 15 years. "Russia and the United States have managed to cooperate quite well in the Minsk Group up until now on Karabakh, but I think the U.S.-Russian relationship is now so bad in the Caucasus that it will be hard for them to trust each other as they have in the past in the Minsk Group." The World Stage Russia's recognition of Georgia's breakaway regions further soured relations with Washington, which has consistently backed Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's drive to bring back South Ossetia and Abkhazia into the fold. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice branded Moscow's decision "regrettable," saying it violated UN Security Council resolutions. Perhaps one of the greatest casualties of Russia's intervention in Georgia are the international monitoring bodies that until now played a formal role in determining the fates of the region's disputed territories. De Waal says the violent standoff between Russian and Georgian forces over South Ossetia dealt a severe blow to international peace efforts in frozen conflict areas. "It has shown that having monitors on the ground means very little if one of the two sides, or both the sides, want to fight," de Waal said. "The OSCE monitors in South Ossetia were completely irrelevant, just as the UN was in Abkhazia -- when the Abkhaz wanted to retake the Kodori Gorge, they just basically told the United Nations: 'We're going in, and you'd better get out.'" Source: Radio Free Europe Documents and Publications (RFE/RL's Moldovan, Azerbaijani, and Armenian services contributed to this report) MOLDOVA Russian warns Moldova over separatist region (27.08.2008) Russia's ambassador to Moldova said the country's leaders should avoid a "bloody and catastrophic trend of events" in the separatist Trans-Dniester region and pointed to the example of Georgia. Ambassador Valeri Kuzmin spoke at a news conference in the capital of the former Soviet republic of Moldova late Tuesday, hours after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev recognized the independence of the breakaway Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Kuzmin, speaking in the name of the Foreign Ministry in Moscow, acknowledged that the situation in the Russian-supported Moldovan region of Trans-Dniester, which is mainly populated by Russians and Ukrainians, differed from that of the Caucasus. He also said there was no sign of a Moldovan intention to escalate tensions. Unlike the Georgian regions, neither Trans-Dniester nor the rest of Moldova, whose population is mostly Romanian-speaking, borders Russia. Trans-Dniester, a long strip of territory on Moldova's eastern border with Ukraine, broke away from Moldova in 1990 and a war between Moldovan forces and separatists in 1992 left 1,500 people dead. It is not recognized internationally, but is supported by Russia, which has 1,500 troops stationed there to guard weapons storage facilities left by the Soviet military. Kuzmin said Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia because of "Georgia's aggression against South Ossetia," and said, "Moldova should draw its own positive conclusions after the conflict in South Ossetia." "It is simply impossible ... to have Moldova behave in a similar way to Georgia," he said in Russian. "I believe that (in Moldova) the leaders will use their wisdom ... to not allow such a bloody and catastrophic trend of events" here, he said. But he added he was glad "there is no intention to escalate the situation in the security zone (a demilitarized area along the Dniester River) and I believe that there shouldn't be any." Russia's President Medvedev met with Moldova's President Vladimir Voronin on Monday in the Black Sea port of Sochi to discuss Trans-Dniester. After the meeting, Voronin said the issue would only be solved through negotiations. He said a solution to the conflict will be drafted based on current law that gives Trans-Dniester gives broad autonomy but within Moldova's borders. Source: Associated Press Newswires UKRAINE The West pledges its support for Ukraine - up to a point (28.08.2008) Western governments are rushing to bolster Ukraine's pro-Western government amid fears that the former Soviet Republic is becoming the front line in the "new Cold War". A day after Russia threw down a fresh challenge to the West by recognising Georgia's breakaway territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, the Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, was the first Western official in Kiev to show support for the President of Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko. The US Vice-President, Dick Cheney, is travelling to both Georgia and Ukraine next week. Mr Yushchenko, who fell victim to a mysterious poisoning that almost cost him his life after he led the Orange Revolution in 2004, fears his country could be next on Vladimir Putin's hit list. But are the Western visitors telling the Ukrainian leader "we are all Ukrainians now", after the Republican presidential candidate, Senator John McCain, expressed solidarity with the Georgians by saying "we are all Georgians now"? Not exactly. Everyone concerned is aware that the conflict in the Caucasus pales into insignificance when compared with the risks to regional stability if there was a conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It not only has a population of 47 million, but is also home to a significant ethnic Russian minority located in its eastern regions and in the Crimean peninsula.Mr Yushchenko, who is campaigning to take his country into both the European Union and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) - as is his Georgian counterpart, Mikheil Saakashvili - has condemned Russia's latest move. He believes that membership of the Western military alliance offers the best insurance policy for Ukraine against attack. "What has happened is a threat to everyone, not just for one country. Any nation could be next, any country. When we allow someone to ignore the fundamental right of territorial integrity, we put into doubt the existence of any country," the Ukrainian leader warned yesterday. Mr Miliband offered strong words of support during his talks in Kiev, but did not stray beyond EU and Nato policy of offering Ukraine eventual membership of both organisations. "My visit is designed to send a simple message," he told an audience of diplomats and students gathered at Kiev's oldest university. "We have not forgotten our commitments to you. Nor shall we do so." He went on: "The Russian President says he is not afraid of a new Cold War. We don't want one. He has a big responsibility not to start one." Mr Miliband, who advocated a "hard-headed engagement" with Russia, discussed with the Ukrainian leaders how Ukraine could avoid falling into the same trap as the Georgian government, which responded to Russian provocations. It is understood Britain has cautioned Ukraine against giving Moscow a technical pretext for intervening in the Crimea, which would have the potential to trigger a major conflict. Ukraine's main concerns focus on the presence of the Black Sea fleet, which is based in Sebastopol. The port is leased to Moscow until 2017. Yesterday, Mr Yushchenko warned in an interview with Reuters that the base had been leased at below market rates and that it was time to think about raising the price. "[We need to] raise the question about the lease payment and new financial conditions, because those old conditions were set when there was no market for land deals ... and assets which the Russian fleet uses were not considered as assets which must be paid for," he said. Under a 1997 pact, Russia leases the base for an annual fee of $98m (£53.5m). Mr Yushchenko has said in the past that he is opposed to renewing the lease in 2017, and his latest comments are likely to incense Russia. Diplomats are aware that unlike public opinion in Georgia, Ukrainian opinion is fiercely divided on whether it should join Nato. Opinion polls show that while 27 per cent are in favour of Nato membership, about the same percentage is opposed - although the number of those in favour has risen since Russia's armed intervention in Georgia. On the streets of Kiev yesterday, Ukrainians voiced fear and support for Moscow in equal measure. And the government itself is also divided - only a year away from presidential elections. While Mr Yushchenko has called for closer ties with the West, his former ally in the Orange Revolution, Julia Tymoshenko, who is now Prime Minister, has kept silent. The allies are now rivals and she has been accused by her detractors of taking a more nuanced approach in the hope of gaining support in the presidential election from Russian-speaking voters. The third leading political figure in Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovich, the former president, has criticised Mr Yushchenko for his stance on Georgia, saying Ukraine must remain neutral and not be drawn into a dispute with Russia. Such concerns were at the heart of Mr Miliband's discussions yesterday with the President, Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Volodymyr Ohryzko. Both the President and Foreign Minister expressed appreciation for Britain's support for Ukraine's eventual membership of Nato and the EU. However, although both Nato and the EU have agreed to set Ukraine on the path to future membership, no date has been set. Nato leaders are due to assess whether to extend a formal timetable to Ukraine - known as the Membership Action Plan (MAP) - at their next summit in December. Diplomats say Russia's actions in Georgia now make it more likely that the alliance will agree to a MAP for Ukraine. On the EU, the political infighting between the President and his fiery Prime Minister has held back progress. Also, Ukraine needs to demonstrate results in fighting corruption, reforming its constitution and overhauling its justice system. Although the economy is doing well, there are serious concerns about it overheating, and inflation is running at a record in the Western world of more than 30 per cent. Yesterday, Mr Yushchenko reaffirmed his bid for Nato membership, which has infuriated Mr Putin. At the previous Nato summit, in Bucharest in April, Mr Putin reportedly told George Bush that Ukraine could be dismantled by Russia if it joined Nato. "Do you understand, George? Ukraine is not even a state," he is reported to have said. Source: The Independent top RUSSIA Russia wins backing from China, Central Asia over Georgia (28.088.2008) Russia won support Thursday from China and Central Asian states in its standoff with the West over the Georgia conflict as the European Union said it was weighing sanctions against Moscow. Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev said he hoped the "united position" of a summit of Central Asian nations would "serve as a serious signal to those who try to turn black into white." The West has strongly condemned Russia's military offensive in Georgia this month and Medvedev's decision to recognise the breakaway Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. Ratcheting up pressure on Russia, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, whose country holds the presidency of the European Union, said the 27-nation bloc was preparing sanctions on Moscow. EU leaders meet Monday in Brussels for an emergency summit to press demands for a further Russian withdrawal from Georgia. "Sanctions are being considered, and many other means," Kouchner said in Paris. China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan voiced support for Russia's "active role" in resolving the conflict in Georgia, according to the draft of a joint statement released by the Kremlin. Leaders from the countries met in the Tajik capital of Dushanbe as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a regional group set up in 2001 to counter NATO influence in the strategic Central Asia region. On Wednesday, the Group of Seven industrialised powers strongly condemned Russia's recognition of the two rebel regions. "We deplore Russia's excessive use of military force in Georgia and its continued occupation of parts of Georgia," said the statement from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States. Former Georgian president Eduard Shevardnadze warned meanwhile that Russia's recognition of the regions would boomerang on Moscow. "They will live to regret it," Shevardnadze said in an interview in Japan's Asahi Shimbun newspaper, adding that the move would "encourage separatist movements within ethnically diverse Russia." Russia claims it had to act after Georgia on August 7 launched an offensive to retake South Ossetia, an attack that South Ossetia's prosecutor general said Thursday had killed 1,692 people, according to the Interfax news agency. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier on Thursday called on Moscow to allow an international probe into the allegations of abuses. "(Moscow) alleges that there atrocities were meted out on the South Ossetian population. Russia or South Ossetia must document whether this is the case and to what extent," Steinmeier told the Sueddeutsche Zeitung daily. On a visit to Ukraine on Wednesday, British Foreign Secretary David Miliband warned Russia not to start a new Cold War. But he also conceded that isolating Russia would be counterproductive because the West relied on cooperation with Moscow to tackle global problems like climate change and nuclear non-proliferation. "The Russian president says he is not afraid of a new Cold War. We don't want one," Miliband said, adding: "He has a big responsibility not to start one," he added. Russia has lashed out at the West for ratcheting up tensions in the Black Sea and warned that attempts to isolate Moscow could lead to an economic backlash. Officials said they were monitoring a growing NATO naval presence in the Black Sea, as the second of three US ships sent to deliver aid arrived in Georgia. Moscow has accused the West of using aid shipments as a cover for rearming Georgia after the Russian military surge into Georgia this month left much of the Georgian military in tatters. "Certainly some measures of precaution are being taken," said a spokesman for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Peskov. "It's not a common practice to deliver humanitarian aid using battleships." In a reminder of Russia's energy muscle, he also warned against trying to isolate Moscow. "Any attempts to jeopardise this atmosphere of cooperation... would not only (have) a negative impact for Russia but will definitely harm the economic interests of those states," Peskov said. Russia moved its own naval forces to the Abkhaz port of Sukhumi, where they got a rapturous reception from Abkhaz leader Sergei Bagapsh. In Tbilisi, the secretary of the Georgian national security council, Alexander Lomaia, told AFP that Russian troops would leave the key Black Sea port of Poti on Thursday or Friday "as a result of international pressure." No confirmation of such a move was forthcoming from the Russian side. In the Georgian port of Batumi, the second of three ships sent by Washington arrived with aid for some of the 100,000 people that the UN refugee agnecy estimates have been displaced in the conflict. Source: Agence France Presse top ___________________________________________________________________________________ The Willy Brandt Bulletin is meant for internal circulation only. Copyrights of individual news sources must be respected. The content of the Bulletin does not reflect the opinion of either the Socialist Group in the European Parliament or the Secretariat of the Socialist Group in the European Parliament. Willy Brandt Enlargement Programme Socialist group in the European Parliament European Parliament Rue Wiertz 60 B-1047 Brussels Phone: 00 32 2 284 2111 Fax: 00 32 2 284 4916 E-mail: mailto:pes.wbprogramme@europarl.europa.eu Web site: http://www.socialistgroup.eu |