a Date/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are listed.
b Except as noted, sustained wind averaging periods for C-MAN and land-based ASOS reports are 2 min; buoy averaging periods are 8 min.
c Storm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level.
d Storm tide is water height above National Geodetic Vertical Datum (1929 mean sea level).
e Record incomplete.
f 10-min mean.
1Table 4. Preliminary track forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for Hurricane Dean, 13-23 August 2007. Forecast errors (n mi) are followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in bold-face type.
1Forecast Technique
|
Forecast Period (h)
|
12
|
24
|
36
|
48
|
72
|
96
|
120
|
CLP5
|
32 (38)
|
67 (36)
|
106 (34)
|
149 (32)
|
257 (28)
|
401 (24)
|
578 (20)
|
GFNI
|
39 (35)
|
69 (32)
|
106 (30)
|
117 (24)
|
91 (17)
|
117 (13)
|
180 ( 9)
|
GFDI
|
31 (38)
|
50 (36)
|
79 (34)
|
115 (32)
|
210 (28)
|
323 (24)
|
428 (20)
|
HWFI
|
29 (38)
|
46 (36)
|
62 (34)
|
81 (32)
|
141 (28)
|
214 (24)
|
326 (20)
|
GFSI
|
23 (38)
|
37 (36)
|
51 (34)
|
64 (32)
|
103 (28)
|
150 (24)
|
188 (20)
|
AEMI
|
30 (38)
|
58 (36)
|
81 (34)
|
107 (32)
|
169 (28)
|
240 (21)
|
306 (10)
|
NGPI
|
40 (36)
|
84 (34)
|
131 (32)
|
147 (29)
|
229 (25)
|
322 (21)
|
440 (17)
|
UKMI
|
28 (36)
|
46 (34)
|
59 (32)
|
80 (30)
|
133 (26)
|
152 (20)
|
219 (16)
|
BAMD
|
27 (38)
|
48 (36)
|
63 (34)
|
83 (32)
|
130 (28)
|
184 (24)
|
256 (20)
|
BAMM
|
30 (38)
|
46 (36)
|
60 (34)
|
74 (32)
|
121 (28)
|
180 (24)
|
239 (20)
|
BAMS
|
50 (38)
|
90 (36)
|
122 (34)
|
146 (32)
|
181 (28)
|
216 (24)
|
261 (20)
|
CONU
|
27 (38)
|
51 (36)
|
77 (34)
|
90 (32)
|
133 (28)
|
206 (24)
|
280 (20)
|
GUNA
|
21 (35)
|
39 (33)
|
59 (31)
|
85 (29)
|
127 (25)
|
180 (19)
|
257 (15)
|
FSSE
|
18 (32)
|
31 (30)
|
50 (28)
|
66 (26)
|
100 (22)
|
145 (18)
|
240 (14)
|
OFCL
|
21 (37)
|
39 (35)
|
58 (33)
|
82 (31)
|
141 (27)
|
198 (23)
|
274 (19)
|
NHC Official
(2002-2006 mean)
|
35 (1852)
|
61 (1686)
|
86 (1519)
|
112 (1362)
|
162 (1100)
|
221 (885)
|
290 (723)
|
Table 5. Preliminary intensity forecast evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for Hurricane Dean, 13-23 August 2007. Forecast errors (kt) are followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller than the NHC official forecast are shown in bold-face type.
1Forecast Technique
|
Forecast Period (h)
|
12
|
24
|
36
|
48
|
72
|
96
|
120
|
OCD5
|
9.4 (38)
|
12.1 (36)
|
16.2 (34)
|
19.5 (32)
|
33.6 (28)
|
49.8 (24)
|
48.8 (20)
|
GHMI
|
11.1 (38)
|
15.3 (36)
|
16.4 (34)
|
18.8 (32)
|
26.4 (28)
|
35.5 (24)
|
40.0 (20)
|
HWFI
|
9.7 (38)
|
12.9 (36)
|
17.3 (34)
|
19.2 (32)
|
25.1 (28)
|
35.3 (24)
|
47.2 (20)
|
SHIP
|
12.7 (37)
|
17.6 (35)
|
21.3 (33)
|
24.5 (31)
|
31.6 (28)
|
37.0 (24)
|
43.0 (20)
|
DSHP
|
9.8 (37)
|
12.5 (35)
|
12.9 (33)
|
13.2 (31)
|
20.9 (28)
|
27.9 (24)
|
35.0 (20)
|
FSSE
|
12.4 (32)
|
16.1 (30)
|
21.2 (28)
|
25.8 (26)
|
32.4 (22)
|
35.1 (18)
|
40.7 (14)
|
ICON
|
9.7 (38)
|
12.8 (36)
|
13.6 (34)
|
16.4 (32)
|
22.2 (28)
|
33.0 (24)
|
37.5 (20)
|
OFCL
|
9.6 (37)
|
12.0 (35)
|
13.5 (33)
|
13.7 (31)
|
21.5 (27)
|
32.6 (23)
|
32.1 (19)
|
NHC Official
(2002-2006 mean)
|
6.4 (1852)
|
9.8 (1686)
|
12.0 (1519)
|
14.1 (1362)
|
18.3 (1100)
|
19.8 (885)
|
21.8 (723)
| | 
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